NFL Picks Week 2: WhatIfSports

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.


Game of the Week: #1 Patriots 17 @ #2 Jets 21
The top-ranked team in the league in our latest NFL Power Rankings is an underdog this week? Well, when that team looks shaky in its Monday Night home opener and then goes on the road to face our #2 team - a team that was as dominant and impressive as any in Week 1 - then yes. With Donovan McNabb's injury in Philadelphia and Miami's disappointing output, New England becomes our top team in the league. However, the Patriots needed Buffalo to cough up a late fumble and Tom Brady to attempt 53 passes just to beat the Bills by one point. On the other hand, in a game between two of our pre-season playoff teams, the Jets went to Houston and throttled the Texans 24-7. Houston did not even score until the fourth quarter and that was on a 48-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Facing what should be a powerful offense with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, etc., the Jets' defense was spectacular, allowing just 183 yards of offense to the Texans. Steve Slaton rushed for just 17 yards on nine carries and, with Darrelle Revis blanketing him, Andre Johnson managed only four receptions for 35 yards.

On a neutral field, this game would be a toss-up. In the Meadowlands with a new, outspoken, defensive-minded head coach, a young quarterback with "it" and everything to prove, the New York Jets have the edge to get a leg up in the AFC East race by taking down the Patriots. New York wins 57.1% and by an average score of 21-17. The Jets are five point underdogs to the Patriots, so they cover the spread 79.4% of the time and are our Upset of the Week pick (though not the "Lock of the Week").

In the projected boxscore, Randy Moss (Revis helps, but it's still Tom Brady and Randy Moss) and Leon Washington are the two most likely players to score touchdowns. Tom Brady completes 19-of-30 passes for 227 yards and at least one touchdown, while also throwing an interception. Brady outduels rookie Mark Sanchez, but not by much. Sanchez completes 14-of-24 pass attempts for 169 yards, one touchdown, one interception and one win. The Jets' biggest advantage comes on the ground where they out-rush the Patriots by 51 yards, including averaging a full yard-per-carry more.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 2 Scores for Every NFL Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
St. Louis @ Washington	89.2	11-28	Boxscore
Carolina @ Atlanta	80.7	17-30	Boxscore
Cleveland @ Denver	71.3	20-29	Boxscore
Baltimore @ San Diego	70.6	20-29	Boxscore
New York Giants @ Dallas	65.9	17-24	Boxscore
Seattle @ San Francisco	65.4	16-22	Boxscore
Cincinnati @ Green Bay	58.8	18-22	Boxscore
Houston @ Tennessee	58.1	18-23	Boxscore
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo	57.9	24-28	Boxscore
New England @ New York Jets	57.1	16-21	Boxscore
Oakland @ Kansas City	44.7	24-23	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Miami	40.9	21-19	Boxscore
New Orleans @ Philadelphia	39.3	23-21	Boxscore
Arizona @ Jacksonville	19.3	26-18	Boxscore
Minnesota @ Detroit	18	30-19	Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ Chicago	15.5	23-14	Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!