Yankees vs. Red Sox AL Wild Card Series Pick, Stat Predictions for Cam Schlittler, More Stars

At the end of play on August 1, the Tampa Bay Rays had the best record in the American League, the New York Yankees had the second-best record and the Boston Red Sox had the third-best record.

Every single morning since then has been the same story: the inevitability of a Yankees-Red Sox wild card round rematch. It finally reached its crescendo on Friday afternoon, with Boston locking up the No. 5 seed after a 4-3 win over the Chicago Cubs on Friday.

It'll be the seventh time these teams have clashed in the postseason since 1999, each winning three of the previous series.

Who prevails in the rubber match of this decades-long, best-of-seven rivalry?

Why New York Should Win

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Simply put, the Yankees have the best pitching staff in baseball.

Even though Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón combined to miss about 40 starts, New York has allowed fewer runs than any other team this season. And now that the Yankees have had the full complement of that trio and Cam Schlittler available together for nearly a month, this rotation has become a terror.

It's not just the starters, either. The bullpen big three of David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, and Brent Headrick have been unflappable since the beginning of June, with a combined ERA of 1.46 in 154.1 innings of work.

Granted, October experience among those three is quite limited. We're talking six innings for Bednar, 1.1 for Blackburn and a goose egg for Headrick, so we'll see what happens in the ultimate pressure cooker. But they've played a massive role in the Yankees eclipsing 90 wins.

Meanwhile, the Boston team that destroyed everything in its path from late June through early August? Nowhere to be found lately, at 22-23 in its last 45 contests and averaging 3.8 runs per game.

Throw in home-field advantage and both Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger heating back up in a huge way over the past month and it's not at all difficult to envision the Yankees advancing from this matchup for a second consecutive year.

Why Boston Should Win

Edward Monigan IV/Getty Images

While the Yankees have allowed the fewest runs this season, the Red Sox are close behind at 3.8 runs allowed per game—their lowest mark since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968.

We shall see how they decide to line up Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez and Peyton Tolle for this series, but that's a trifecta that can hold its own against Schlittler and Co.

Provided Aroldis Chapman's recent lat soreness doesn't resurface next week, the one-two punch with Garrett Whitlock has been a late-inning tour de force. Garrett Crochet might be in the bullpen mix, too? And Brayan Bello is one heck of a bulk relief option, boasting a 2.28 ERA since the beginning of July.

Trevor Story has hit the ball well since returning from the IL in late August. Roman Anthony returned the same day (8/30) and has made a positive impact at the top of the lineup. If they can get Ceddanne Rafaela back to normal after his recent leg muscle strains, this offense should be able to scratch out at least a few runs in what is likely to be a series of pitching duels.

The Aaron Judge / Ewing Theory Factor

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

The three-time MVP-sized unknown in this series is Aaron Judge's availability for the Yankees.

Will they even have him on their wild card roster with his calf injury? Per MLB.com's Bryan Hoch, Aaron Boone said Tuesday, "We're planning on him not being a part of that (the wild card series)."

Judge had other thoughts the following day, saying he plans to play in Game 1.

Could he play right field if he makes it back, though?

If he can only DH, does that mean Ben Rice plays first base for just the second time since the trade deadline, while Luis García Jr. slides over to second base for the first time since last season?

Or do they save Judge for a pivotal pinch-hitting situation in each game—even though he has gone 2-for-27 with no extra-base hits and 17 strikeouts as a sub in his MLB career?

Basically, how much of a distraction is it going to cause if he's on the roster? And if he's not, how badly will New York miss a guy who's hit .355 with two home runs in eight career postseason games against the Red Sox?

Stat Predictions for Crucial Players

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Cam Schlittler, RHP, NYY: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 10 K

Not only is Schlittler going to win the AL Cy Young with his 1.95 ERA, but he has particularly owned Boston in his brief career. The ace from Massachusetts has made five starts against the Red Sox, allowing just two earned runs in 32.1 innings, for a 0.56 ERA. Maybe that changes on Tuesday, but he has shown no signs whatsoever of running out of gas as he approaches 200 innings pitched this season.

Payton Tolle, LHP, BOS: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 8 K

While Schlittler has dominated the Red Sox, Tolle has returned the favor to the Yankees. Granted, it's only two starts instead of five, but he has a 0.69 ERA, 0.54 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 against them. And with Tolle blossoming into a cult hero this season, it's almost inevitable that he is going to play a key role in this series.

Ben Rice, DH, NYY: 3-for-12, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Rice got the party started last year with a two-run home run off Bello in the first inning of Game 1. And if the Red Sox deploy Gray in Game 1, Rice just might hit a leadoff homer this year. Though he has a woeful .473 OPS against Boston in 2026, he has a 1.841 OPS in nine career plate appearances against Gray.

Willson Contreras, 1B, BOS: 1-for-12, 1 RBI, 6 K

This is the series' X-factor. Contreras has been Boston's most important bat with a .905 OPS. No one else on Boston who ranks top 12 in plate appearances can boast a better mark than .781.

But in addition to missing the past week with a knuckle injury, in 59 career plate appearances against the collection of Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and David Bednar, he has gone 7-for-55 (.127 AVG) with one home run, four walks and 25 strikeouts—and the home run came off Rodón (Who maybe doesn't pitch in this series?) in 2017. If he keeps struggling against those arms, where does Boston's offense come from?

Series Prediction: Yankees in 3

Andrew Ritter/Major League Baseball via Getty Images

Curiously enough, New York's left-handed heavy lineup has actually fared pretty well against southpaws since Judge first hit the shelf at the end of May—which could prove pivotal against a disproportionately left-handed Red Sox pitching staff. (Spencer Jones, in particular, has been a reverse-splits unicorn with a 1.155 OPS against lefties this season.)

For how long we've been anticipating this wild card matchup, here's hoping it goes the distance. But the Yankees prevail, setting up a colossal showdown with Tampa Bay and yet another postseason series preview riddled with Judge-centric questions.