Week 1 NFL Picks and Early Odds to Exploit for 2026 Opening Schedule

The opening week of the NFL season is always exciting. It can also be a difficult one for bettors to dissect.

We rarely know exactly what to expect from every team coming out of the preseason, especially when many teams opt to rest their starters. We don't know which teams are poised to regress yet, or which are positioned for a breakthrough.

Sloppy play is also often a hallmark of Week 1, which is how results like last year's Las Vegas Raiders win over the Patriots occur.

While the uncertainty can lead to some big whiffs, it can also yield favorable lines that can be exploited. We'll examine some of our favorite Week 1 odds, from FanDuel Sportsbook, here.

Texans +1.5 vs. Bills

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

The Buffalo Bills are being heavily hyped heading into Week 1, possibly due to the team's head-coaching change and the arrival of wideout D.J. Moore.

The presence of Josh Allen is obviously a factor, too.

However, the Houston Texans have no business being home underdogs against Buffalo in Week 1. Houston had the league's top-ranked defense a year ago and looks to be even better this season, at least on paper.

Should the Texans trust C.J. Stroud to go play-for-play against Allen? Of course not, but if their defense is close to midseason form, a little smart game management should be enough to get the win.

Houston won this matchup by four points last November. Unless former coach Sean McDermott was truly and significantly holding back Buffalo's offense, the rematch should yield a similar result.

Chargers -9.5 vs. Cardinals

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Chargers RB Omarion Hampton

Let's get the obvious out of the way. This is a massive line for a road team playing in Week 1. If it didn't involve Jim Harbaugh, one of the most buttoned-up coaches in the league, I'd probably suggest avoiding it.

However, the Los Angeles Chargers are mostly healthy, they'll be well-prepared for the regular season, and they should be more offensively potent under new coordinator Mike McDaniel.

Against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranked 27th overall a year ago, McDaniel and quarterback Justin Herbert should put on a show.

The Cardinals do have some serious offensive firepower of their own. However, rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is still recovering from an ankle sprain, and L.A. has one of the top defensive rosters in the NFL. Could the Cardinals still surprise? Of course, but it's more likely that this game turns into the rout of the week.

Colts and Ravens Over 47.5 Total Points

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson played through multiple injuries in 2025, while Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles tear. When the two were healthy, though, they were two of the most potent playmakers in the NFL.

Both Jackson and Jones are healthy now, and fans should expect to see some offensive fireworks in this matchup. They should also expect to see a good amount of points on the scoreboard.

The Ravens were atrocious defensively last season, and while new head coach Jesse Minter should spark improvements in 2026, Baltimore's defense probably won't be elite right out of the gate. The Colts, meanwhile, have added some pieces to a defense that ranked 23rd overall last season. However, they are also unlikely to lead with their defense in Week 1.

Between Jackson, Jones, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor, there's simply too much big-play ability in this matchup to ignore.