Updated New York Yankees Playoff Predictions, Aaron Judge Projections for Final Stretch

With three weeks remaining in Major League Baseball's 2026 regular season, there is no longer any realistic scenario in which the New York Yankees fail to reach the postseason.

They haven't officially clinched anything, but Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN and PECOTA all put the Bronx Bombers at either a 99.9 or 100.0 percent chance of October baseball.

At this point, it's really just a question of seeding and what sort of momentum the Yankees can carry into the playoffs—both of which could hinge on when exactly and how emphatically Aaron Judge returns to the lineup.

As such, that will be the crux of our focus today, after a look at the current relevant standings and a couple of noteworthy injury updates.

Current Standings and Postseason Odds

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays: 85-58

New York Yankees: 81-62, 4.0 GB

Boston Red Sox: 79-65, 6.5 GB

Wild Card

New York Yankees: 81-62, +8.5 GB

Boston Red Sox: 79-65, +6.0 GB

Cleveland Guardians: 73-71

Toronto Blue Jays: 72-72, 1.0 GB

Texas Rangers: 71-73, 2.0 GB

Yankees Postseason Seed Odds, per FanDuel as of Sunday morning

No. 1 Seed: +390

No. 4 Seed: -340

No. 5 Seed: +950

As has been the case for a while now, New York is looking destined for the AL's No. 4 seed.

However, there is a gigantic four-game series still to come against the Rays (at Yankee Stadium) in two weeks. If New York manages to sweep Tampa Bay, the Yankees would effectively gain 4.5 games in the standings, as that would also flip the head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor.

Moreover, with New York having home games against the Rockies and Mets on tap for this week while the Rays have to deal with Atlanta and Houston, this AL East race could get mighty interesting in a hurry.

Injury Updates

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CF Trent Grisham is back on the IL with another hamstring strain suffered on Friday. He missed about three weeks earlier this season with a similar injury, but this one might knock him out for the rest of the year. However, he was only hitting .167/.261/.346 over his last 46 games, so cementing Spencer Jones in center while working Jasson Domínguez back into the outfield mix might not be a bad thing.

RHP Clarke Schmidt made another rehab appearance on Wednesday, just three days after his previous one. He allowed one run in two innings with three strikeouts. They clearly intend to bring him back as a middle/bulk reliever for the home stretch, and he could be a real asset in the sixth/seventh inning in the postseason.

OF Aaron Judge did pre-game work throughout this past week's road trip and is expected to face live pitching (possibly Schmidt?) at Yankee Stadium on Monday. Per MLB.com's Bryan Hoch, Judge wants to face live pitching "a couple of times, at least, before I get back in a game." But the general vibe seems to be that he should be back this week, perhaps for the series finale against the Rockies.

The Hapless, Judge-Less Yankees Offense

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In the more than three months since Judge's last AB on May 31, the Yankees have had one of the most lackluster offenses in the majors.

They entered play on Sunday with a .227 batting average, a .295 on-base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage, averaging 4.07 runs per game with a FanGraphs Offense rating of minus-32.8 dating back to June 1.

Their MLB ranks in those departments?

29th, 30th, 26th, 25th and 29th, respectively.

In spite of that team-wide power outage, they've managed to go a respectable 45-38 behind what has arguably been the best pitching staff in the majors over the past two months.

Make no mistake about it, though: If those offensive numbers continue into October, it will be a brief stay in the postseason.

Best-Case Scenario

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Imagine, however, that Judge comes back like nothing ever happened.

Imagine a career .291/.411/.611 hitter—MLB's top slugger since his arrival in 2016—returning to his throne, relegating Heliot Ramos (and what has been a .145/.289/.261 triple-slash with the Yankees) to a reserve role and giving this lineup the type of feared presence that it has been desperately lacking for months.

Whether the Yankees come back to win the AL East or not, don't they instantly become the clear favorite to represent the American League in the World Series if Judge resumes his Ruthian ways?

And if he does come back for a solid final 16-18 games, we're done with the "Yeah, he's great during the regular season, but he can't deliver in October" poppycock, right?

Judge hit .500/.581/.692 during New York's seven-game stay in the 2025 postseason and now has an .822 OPS and 17 home runs in 65 games played in his postseason career. He definitely hasn't been as potent during the postseason as he typically is during the regular season, but those are hardly "choke artist" numbers.

Worst-Case Scenario

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What if Judge struggles, though?

What if instead of coming back and quickly getting back to "Peak Judge" levels of greatness, he picks up right where he left off in May, matching the .550 OPS that he posted over his final 16 games before admitting defeat on the rib injury and going on the IL?

Holding down the fort until Judge comes back to the rescue has been the unspoken goal for a while now, with hopes that getting him back into the lineup would somehow be the key to Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger mashing again like they did through the first two months.

But while a .550 OPS wouldn't be drastically worse than what they've gotten collectively from his fill-ins over the past few months, finally getting Judge back without really getting Judge back could break New York's psyche.

Our Guess

Goodness only knows what Judge will look like when he returns, but he couldn't ask for a much more favorable landing strip than possibly starting his comeback against the Rockies, the Mets and the Twins.

The first two are last and third-to-last in the NL standings. The latter ranks fifth-worst in the majors in runs allowed per game this season, and he has a career .395/.510/.684 triple-slash in 21 games played at Target Field.

Most likely, we'll see clear signs of rust, but also some clear reminders that Judge has been the best hitter on the planet over the past five seasons; a strikeout rate of at least 30 percent, but with a .260 batting average and one home run for every 16 trips to the plate, one of which temporarily threatens to go into orbit.

If he's better than that, the No. 1 seed and a return to the World Series is very much still in play.