Predicting the AL East Finish and 2026 MLB Playoff Matchups For Yankees, Red Sox and More
The American League East is probably going to send three teams to the playoffs. The only questions are which ones, and in what arrangement?
We might as well take a whack at predicting how it all turns out, and then play the long game in projecting the playoffs for good measure.
This is partially about digging deep into what has happened in the AL East this season, and surmising what it could mean for potential rivalry renewals in October. It's also about the other teams each AL East contender could encounter in the postseason.
Read on for analysis that is bookended by predictions for how the AL East and the American League playoffs will play out.
What the AL East Looks Like Right Now
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Standings
- Tampa Bay Rays: 83-56
- New York Yankees: 80-60, 3.5 GB
- Boston Red Sox: 75-65, 8.5 GB
- Baltimore Orioles: 69-71, 14.5 GB
- Toronto Blue Jays: 69-71, 14.5 GB
Who's Hot?
Tampa Bay Rays: They actually did a bit of skidding in August, but have since won seven out of their last 10.
New York Yankees: As they await Aaron Judge's return, winning three out of four against the Red Sox this past weekend is part of an overall run in which they have won 12 out of 17.
Baltimore Orioles: A sweep at the hands of the Yankees in August slowed their roll, but they have since won eight out of their last 12.
Who's Not?
Boston Red Sox: They're not cold, necessarily, but that incredible 32-5 run they went on has since been followed by an 11-14 slowdown since August 8.
Toronto Blue Jays: They're 20-12 since falling to a season-low 10 games under .500 back on July 28, but are more recently 6-5 in their last 11 even despite a sweep of the utterly hapless Seattle Mariners.
How the AL East Will Look at the End
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Predicted Final Standings
- Tampa Bay Rays: 95-67*
- New York Yankees: 92-60^
- Boston Red Sox: 91-61^^
- Baltimore Orioles: 83-79
- Toronto Blue Jays: 81-81
*Division winner, AL No. 1 seed
^No. 1 wild card
^^No. 2 wild card
Why the Rays Will Win the AL East
The Rays do have one disadvantage for the remainder of the year, in that their schedule is the hardest of any team in the division.
Even so, the Rays only seem to immediately start ripping off Ws whenever it crosses my mind to doubt them. They're also 32-23 against teams with winning records, so their remaining schedule might be a mere inconvenience.
Why the Yankees and Red Sox Will Be Wild Cards
Both clubs are in a relatively safe position heading into the home stretch. The Yankees lead the Red Sox by 5.0 games for the top AL wild-card spot, while the latter has a 4.5-game edge on the Cleveland Guardians for the second.
Boston was positioned to make a move on New York heading into last weekend. Alas, losses in three out of four nixed that and gave the season series to the Yankees, to boot. The Red Sox also have the harder remaining schedule of the two.
Also, Aaron Judge could be back with the Yankees as soon as next week. With all respect to Roman Anthony and Trevor Story for what they bring to Boston, neither is a three-time MVP with creds as an all-time great hitter.
What It Means
If the Rays grab the No. 1 seed and the Yankees and Red Sox grab the top two wild cards, the playoffs will be set up for an AL East collision course.
The Yankees and Red Sox would play a best-of-three in the Wild Card Series, with the winner moving on to face the Rays in the Division Series.
An AL East Wild Card Series Showdown
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Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Format: Best of 3
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Head-to-Head: Yankees 7, Red Sox 6
How They Match Up
Though the Yankees outscored the Red Sox by 16 runs in their head-to-head matchups, that's largely fueled by a 16-1 blowout in their last meeting on Sunday. The truth is that the two teams were pretty evenly matched this year.
For the Yankees, the hope in a rematch would involve MLB's best starting pitching (i.e., 3.35 ERA) doing the carrying while Aaron Judge's return catalyzes an offense that has a typical calling card. Home runs tend to win games in October, and the Yankees lead the AL in long balls even with Judge hitting only 17 earlier in the year.
Just in the second half, though, Boston leads the AL in runs scored and home runs. That offense is even better with a healthy Roman Anthony, and it's not like this team can't pitch. The Red Sox's overall ERA is 3.66, fourth-best in baseball.
The X-factor is Willson Contreras, and specifically his strained left hamstring.
The Red Sox need him healthy and swinging a hot bat again. To this end, a .900 OPS and 26 home runs clearly mark him as Boston's best hitter. Yet his hamstring trouble did coincide with a cooldown, as he only had a .715 OPS in his last 23 games before landing on the IL.
An All-AL East Division Series
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Matchup: Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Format: Best of 5 (2-2-1)
Main Venue: Tropicana Field
How the Rays and Yankees Match Up
Head-to-Head: Yankees 6, Rays 3
The Rays being better than the sum of their parts usually is their whole thing, and you can see it this year in how their run differential (+51) pales in comparison to that of the Yankees (+115). They also don't have as many power threats, as they mostly rely on Junior Caminero to hit balls over the fence.
What the Rays can do that the Yankees aren't so good at is play good, clean baseball. Their pitchers have walked the fewest batters in baseball. They have the AL's most efficient defense. They steal bases and make productive outs to move runners over. And so on.
Home-field advantage could also be a deciding factor for the Rays. They are 47-25 at Tropicana Field, easily the best home winning percentage in the AL. The Yankees are good on the road, but not that good to the tune of a 43-29 record.
How the Rays and Red Sox Match Up
Head-to-Head: Rays 5, Red Sox 5
Three games in St. Petersburg between September 18 and 20 will decide this season's series. For now, Boston can take heart in having outscored the Rays by eight runs in their head-to-head meetings.
More so than the Yankees, the Red Sox can hang with the Rays in a clean baseball competition. The Red Sox also don't walk many batters, and they're just a tier below the Rays in Defensive Runs Saved. They're also not all about power offensively, as Boston has actually made more productive outs than the Rays have.
What could potentially further swing things in Boston's favor is their wealth of left-handed pitching. Against righties, Rays hitters are fifth in OPS. Against lefties, they're 21st in OPS.
The Other Side of the AL Bracket
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Projected AL Wild Card Series: Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Projected AL No. 2 Seed: Chicago White Sox
How Solid Is This Projection?
On paper, not that solid. Yet it feels like it is.
The White Sox lead the Guardians by 3.0 games in the AL Central, and they have the easier remaining schedule of the two. The Astros are only 2.0 games ahead of the Texas Rangers in the AL West, yet are the lone contender in the division with a winning record since the All-Star break.
Hotness can also be what separates Cleveland in the wild-card race. The Guardians have four teams within 3.5 games of them, yet have been pulling away with wins in nine of their last 12.
Threat Assessment for All 3 Teams
Chicago White Sox: Their pitching is very shaky, but they're very good at hitting the long ball to the tune of 181 home runs, which ranks third among AL clubs.
Cleveland Guardians: Their 4.04 runs scored per game is the lowest of any projected playoff team, but nobody wants to face a starting trio of Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Tanner Bibee.
Houston Astros: They have Yordan Alvarez leading an offense that's second in the AL with 184 home runs, and Hunter Brown is back to looking like a true Game 1 starter with a 2.63 ERA in his last seven starts.
Predicting the Entire AL Playoff Field
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Wild Card Series
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
The Yankees got the better of the Red Sox last weekend, but they also missed Boston's two best starting pitchers in Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle. That's a potential equalizer, and the Red Sox are ultimately more trustworthy when it comes to relief pitching and scoring runs in non-homer ways.
Red Sox in 2
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
The Guardians are a sneaky-good road team at 37-32, so this is a question of whether Cleveland's arms or Houston's bats would win the day. The thinking here is that it's kind of a lopsided argument. As good as the Astros offense is, Yordan Alvarez is the only guy you really need to worry about.
Guardians in 3
American League Division Series
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
If they knock off the Yankees, the Red Sox would be the best road team (40-31) left standing in the AL playoffs. Beyond that, they're more powerful than the Rays right now even though the Rays have one more home run for the season. Again, Boston leads the AL in runs and home runs since the All-Star break.
Red Sox in 4
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
As much as home runs tend to light the way in October, no team is more likely to break the rule than these White Sox. It can't be stressed enough just how shaky their starting pitching has become after posting a 6.21 ERA in August, and there's just not much there in terms of hope for October.
Guardians in 3
American League Championship Series
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
Here's where the Red Sox would finally have home-field advantage, and that could test even Cleveland's capacity for winning on the road. Boston has won 23 of its last 32 at Fenway Park.
The Guardians couldn't hope to win a slugfest, so they would need to pitch Boston into submission. Yet even that would be a tightrope, as the Red Sox's best pitchers are more than equal to the task of hanging with Cleveland's best pitchers.
Red Sox in 6
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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