Every Division's 'Wild Card' for the 2026 NFL Season

Every NFL division has "that team."

You know the one: They could get hot and make a playoff run, but they could just as easily suffer a season-long meltdown resulting in a premium first-round pick.

The gap between the ceiling and floor is particularly large, often because of unknowns at quarterback, within the coaching staff, or throughout the core of the roster.

These are the teams that might play spoiler, but could just as easily see their own seasons spoiled well before Halloween.

Here's one from each division.

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Malik Willis

The Ceiling: New Dolphins head coach/former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley could immediately get into a groove with 27-year-old former third-round pick Malik Willis, who generated nine passing/rushing touchdowns to zero interceptions and posted a 134.6 passer rating in limited action the last two years in Green Bay. The result could be a competitive season and a wild-card opportunity for Miami. 

The Floor: Saddled with arguably the least-talented pass-catching group in the NFL and stuck behind an offensive line riddled with question marks, Willis struggles mightily in his first sustained run as a starter as a rebuilding team hits rock bottom. 

Spoiler Factor: Even with everything falling apart the last couple years, they've played the Bills tough. In their last three meetings, they're 1-2 with a plus-four scoring margin.

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Kirk Irwin

Deshaun Watson

The Ceiling: This season could be to Deshaun Watson what 2010 was to Michael Vick. Vick had been a non-factor for several seasons in a row before winning Comeback Player of the Year in an oft-dominant age-30 campaign with the Eagles. The 30-year-old Watson certainly has the talent and finds himself in that spot now. He's surrounded by intriguing young talent, a revamped offensive line and a new-look coaching staff. Those are the ingredients for a surprisingly competitive season. 

The Floor: Watson could just as easily fall on his face again, and that young offensive supporting cast may need time to grow in a new system. There are no guarantees with the line, and the defense will almost certainly struggle sans Myles Garrett. They could easily end up with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Spoiler Factor: In the second half last season, they went 2-1 with a positive scoring margin within the division. They've generally played Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati tough in recent years. 

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Daniel Jones

The Ceiling: They get a full season from the Daniel Jones who posted a 109.9 passer rating during a 7-1 start to the 2025 season. That and strong contributions from Jonathan Taylor, an underrated and talented receiving corps and an experienced offensive line could carry them to a division title. 

The Floor: They get the version of Daniel Jones who posted an 84.2 passer rating as the team went 1-4 following that hot start—a stretch that ended with him tearing his right Achilles. If he cannot stay healthy, Indianapolis could get even less. Combined with an overall lack of oomph on either side of the ball, that could leave the Colts fighting the Titans for third place in the division.

Honorable Mention in the Division: Speaking of the Titans, they were a respectable 2-3 from the start of December onward last season as top pick Cam Ward put up six touchdowns to zero interceptions and posted a 103.8 passer rating in his final four starts as a rookie. Could a new coaching staff maintain that trajectory? Or is this still a full-on rebuild that will require at least another roller-coaster of a season?

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs 

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

Patrick Mahomes

The Ceiling: We've seen it. It remains Super Bowl-high so long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are cooking. 

The Floor: We got a glimpse in 2025. If a 30-year-old Mahomes can't stay healthy and regain some of the magic from his 20s despite a significantly weaker supporting cast, the Chiefs will have an extremely difficult time hanging with the Broncos and Chargers. 

Honorable Mention in the Division: There's no denying that the Raiders, who have invested considerable draft capital the last few offseasons and spent huge in free agency this spring, have plenty of talent in key spots. If they could catch fire with Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza, they could remarkably send the Chiefs to the AFC West basement and hang with the Broncos and Chargers. Or it could be a total mess as the rebuild trudges on. 

NFC East: New York Giants

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

Jaxson Dart

The Ceiling: There's a world in which Jaxson Dart takes off in his second season and becomes a star with top-notch support from an exciting skill-position group, a promising offensive line, a defense that features massive talent up front and an incoming head coach with Super Bowl pedigree. In that world, the Giants can shock the unpredictable NFC East.

The Floor: Ultimately, it remains low with so many questionable variables. The sample is small for Dart, and two key cogs (Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo) are coming back from major injuries. If the Eagles are the Eagles, a better defense helps Dallas bounce back, and Washington can rediscover what got it to the NFC title game in 2024, the Giants could be in for a third consecutive last-place campaign. 

Spoiler Factor: At home in 2025, the Giants beat the Eagles and Cowboys by a combined margin of 68-34. 

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Adam Bettcher

Kyler Murray

The Ceiling: They won 14 games in 2024. The core remains similar, but with wild-card Kyler Murray at quarterback. If Murray can stay healthy and produce to his talent level, the sky (or a surprise NFC North crown) is the limit for a team with a superstar receiver, a stacked offensive line and a high-quality defense. 

The Floor: Murray reproduces the uneven form he showed over his final four seasons in Arizona, missing at least six games in three campaigns and posting a mediocre 90.3 passer rating overall. If a new environment cannot reignite the former No. 1 overall pick and J.J. McCarthy cannot provide a viable alternative, Minnesota is a .500-ish team at best.

Spoiler Factor: The Vikings finished the 2025 season on a five-game winning streak despite issues at quarterback. That run included multi-score victories over division rivals Detroit and Green Bay, as the team went 4-2 against the NFC North for the second consecutive season. 

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Tua Tagovailoa

The Ceiling: If Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. can deliver, the Falcons could prevail in the wide-open NFC South behind Bijan Robinson, who is in his prime, a fresh coaching staff, a solid offensive line and a budding defense.

The Floor: Tagovailoa may have peaked several years ago, while Penix may have peaked in the Pac-12. If so, there's only so much Robinson and a decent skill-position corps can do for a team that will likely still struggle defensively as well. They can wind up with seven or eight wins for a sixth season in a row. 

Honorable Mention in the Division: Tyler Shough had a triple-digit passer rating in the final four weeks of his rookie season for a Saints squad that finished 4-1. That momentum and a sneaky-solid offseason could take New Orleans back to the top of the division. However, they're less than a sophomore slump away from a return to the basement. 

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Christian McCaffrey

The Ceiling: A similar 49ers core lost the Super Bowl by a field goal a few years ago, so San Francisco's ceiling entering 2026 is clearly championship level. Imagine what this experienced, well-coached and deeply talented team could accomplish if it simply stays healthy.

The Floor: Another injury-plagued campaign likely means another third-place finish when you're dealing with the Super Bowl favorite (Los Angeles) and the defending Super Bowl champion (Seattle). 

Spoiler Factor: They beat both the Rams and Seahawks on the road in 2025. In fact, they haven't lost a regular-season game in Seattle since 2021.