Fresh New York Yankees Playoff Predictions, Player Stat Projections For Final Month

The New York Yankees took three out of four in a pivotal series with the Boston Red Sox this past weekend, opening up a four-game lead over those loathed rivals in the race for the American League's top wild card spot.

At 4.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the No. 1 seed, though, the Yankees are still hoping for more with four weeks remaining until the finish line.

How will things play out for the Bronx Bombers in September?

More importantly, how are they shaping up for October?

We'll start out with some key injury updates before diving into updated projections for the Yankees for the closing stretch.

Injury Updates

• Before Sunday's series finale against the Red Sox, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Aaron Judge (rib) will travel with the team on the upcoming West Coast road trip, with the intention of increasing his pregame activities. Though there has been no indication yet that he could play this week against the Angels or Padres, Judge has said that he ideally will return without going on a rehab assignment. At this point, we're just kind of waiting to see when he shows up in the lineup. He could return during next week's homestand.
  
• George Lombard Jr. (knee) is considered day-to-day after tweaking his knee on a checked swing and leaving two innings later during the second game of Saturday's doubleheader. He did not play on Sunday.
  
• Ryan McMahon (thumb) played in a rehab game on Saturday and will likely return on Tuesday, when rosters expand from 26 to 28.
  
• Clarke Schmidt (Tommy John) began a rehab assignment on Saturday. In 20 pitches, he allowed a triple and a home run while striking out two batters. There's still hope he returns in mid-September, though he would almost certainly do so in a relief capacity.

Notable September Pitching Projections

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For the first time this season, the Yankees have their ideal postseason starting rotation intact.

Gerrit Cole tossed a quality start on Thursday. Cam Schlittler went 5.2 scoreless innings on Friday. And though both Carlos Rodón and Max Fried were on a pitch count for Saturday's doubleheader, the former threw 88 pitches in Game 1 and the latter tallied 63 pitches in the nightcap.

What should we expect from each down the stretch, in what should be five remaining starts apiece?

Gerrit Cole already has been hot as of late, boasting a 2.57 ERA over his last nine appearances, eight of which were quality starts. But if the rotation holds to form, his next three starts would come against the Angels, Rockies and Mets. He might do some serious shoving in September. We'll pencil him in for 32 IP, a 2.25 ERA and 37 strikeouts.

Naturally, we expect big things from Cam Schlittler, who is in quite the two-horse race with Dylan Cease for the AL Cy Young. He has struggled with his control recently, though, issuing 16 walks in his last five starts after allowing just 26 in his first 23 outings. He'll reel it back in for September, helped by matchups with the Angels and Rockies in his next two starts. It might be lazy, but we're putting him down for the same projection of 32 IP, 2.25 ERA and 37 K. (And, yes, he wins the Cy Young.)

With both Carlos Rodón and Max Fried, the priority is simple: Stay healthy. Each has made two IL trips this season and is still building back up from the latest.

Both have been solid when available, though. Fried has a 2.80 ERA for the year, while Rodón is at a 2.82 ERA over his last 10 starts.

Rodón goes 26.2 innings across his remaining five starts with a 3.37 ERA and 25 strikeouts. Fried gives them 25.0 innings with a 2.88 ERA and 20 strikeouts.

Lastly, Paul Blackburn has suddenly become the go-to guy in pivotal situations prior to the ninth inning, both because he hasn't allowed an earned run across his last 15 appearances and because Fernando Cruz is done for the year. If he continues compiling holds while the big four starters remain healthy, it's going to be hard to pick against the Yankees, at least until the World Series.

However, Blackburn—whose 1.62 ERA is at odds with a 3.44 xERA, 3.62 FIP and 3.85 xFIP—comes back to earth a bit down the stretch with a 4.00 ERA and two blown saves in September.

Notable September Hitting Projections

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Prior to that 16-1 shellacking of Boston on Sunday, the Yankees had averaged 3.53 runs across their previous 64 games, ranking nearly dead last in the majors since mid-June.

At least in terms of batting average, their three best hitters during that 2.5-month stretch were someone they traded for (Luis García Jr., .309), a player who made his MLB debut in early August (George Lombard Jr., .253) and the guy who got demoted when they promoted Lombard (Anthony Volpe, .239).

Point is, things haven't been great.

Are the bats going to sputter through September, too? Or will a favorable remaining schedule—of their eight remaining opponents, six rank in the bottom half of the majors in run prevention—help them right the ship?

Here's what Steamer projects for the rest of the season for seven of New York's most important position players, and whether we agree with the forecast:

• Ben Rice: .242/.334/.478, 6 HR, 14 RBI—Rice has been all over the map this season; an MVP-caliber hitter in April, May and July, but a bench-caliber hitter in June and August. So, who knows what September holds? But he's five home runs away from 40 and could even end up being the reason Yordan Alvarez fails to complete the Triple Crown.
  
• Cody Bellinger: .259/.332/.439, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB—In 38 games played since June 17, Bellinger has one home run and an OPS of .564. If he goes for four and .771, respectively, that could be what turns this entire offense around. And our guess is that he does finish relatively strong, maybe even a bit better than this projection.
  
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .231/.314/.420, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB—September has historically been Chisholm's least productive month. (Well, actually, October has been.) However, if ever there was a year for him to finish strong, it's this one, to springboard into free agency on a high note. And over his last 12 games, he's batting .384 with eight stolen bases. He likely won't stay that hot, but he will at least surpass this stolen-base projection.
  
• Luis García Jr.: .270/.312/.481, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB—García had an .873 OPS with the Nationals before the trade deadline and he has had an .884 OPS with the Yankees. Why the sudden dip to a sub-.800 projection, especially considering they can platoon him with Paul Goldschmidt to pretty much avoid left-handed starting pitchers the rest of the way? He should fare a bit better than this.
  
• Heliot Ramos: .246/.313/.418, 3 HR, 11 RBI—Ramos finally broke through with a home run on Sunday, but he entered the day batting .119 in his 20 games with the Yankees. Factor in his final 22 games with the Giants and we're talking a 42-game stretch with a .518 OPS. This projection feels way too generous, as once Judge is able to return, Ramos is probably out of a job.
  
• George Lombard Jr.: .223/.309/.349, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB—With the obvious exception of Judge's health, arguably the biggest X-factor for the Yankees in September is shortstop. If this is what Lombard hits, does he even keep the job? Or does his erratic glove become such a problem that they pivot back to Anthony Volpe just before the finish line? Either way, this projection reflects what he has shown thus far in the majors and is probably close to what actually happens.
  
• Aaron Judge (6 games): .274/.409/.560, 2 HR, 5 RBI—When Judge returned from nearly two months on the IL in 2023, he had a .965 OPS and homered in one out of three games played the rest of the way. Steamer is projecting basically a carbon copy of that here, which seems fair. However, six games is mighty pessimistic. Sixteen games feels more realistic.

Postseason Predictions

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In last week's projections, we had the Yankees securing the No. 4 seed and the Wild Card Series home-field advantage that comes with it, but getting bounced immediately by then-red-hot Boston.

But after the Yankees took three out of four (two of them in blowout fashion) against the Red Sox, we're changing our tune here.

For the second consecutive year, New York knocks out Boston in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round.

And instead of turning around and losing to the AL East winner in the ALDS, they're also going to topple Tampa Bay in four games before possibly sweeping whoever is left standing from the AL Central/West in the ALCS.

With the pitching staff healthier than it has been all season and Judge hopefully nearing a return of his own, this team's ceiling feels as high as it has in nearly three months.

Is it high enough to take down the Dodgers in the World Series? Well, maybe not. But a repeat of the 2024 World Series matchup sure would be a fun final hurrah before the impending lockout.