MLB's Historically Bad AL West is Also…Dangerous?
This is not the best of times in the American League West. Nobody is having a good time, and the only hope of reprieve lies in October.
At least one team from the AL West will be present in the postseason, and that potential lone entry could make history. As of Thursday, all five teams in the division had a losing record.
The only team to come close to winning a division with a losing record was the 2005 San Diego Padres, who won the NL West with at 82-80 and with a minus-42 run differential. Presently, the AL West can only aspire to that level of competence:
- Houston Astros: 67-67, -44
- Texas Rangers: 66-68, -47
- Seattle Mariners: 64-70, -57
- Athletics: 53-81, -185
- Los Angeles Angels: 52-82, -75
It's no wonder three of the five front office heads who began the year in the AL West have lost their jobs. Perry Minasian, David Forst and Dana Brown must have felt like Andy Dufresne escaping Shawshank Penitentiary when they finally got out.
How things went so wrong is a good question. Another good one is whether there's any hope for the AL West.
Spoiler alert: Yes.
How Did the AL West Go So Wrong?
The AL West produced pennant winners in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, and came very close to doing so again just last year. This is not a lightweight division. At least, it's not supposed to be.
The reality coming into 2026 was always more complicated. Preseason projections generally painted a picture of a mediocre American League, to the point that even the best team in the AL West (the Mariners, according to FanGraphs) would have been projected as the fourth-best team in the National League.
Cut to now, and it's impossible to tell the story of what's gone wrong in the AL West without breaking down what's gone wrong with the Mariners.
They have gone from having a top-10 run-scoring offense in 2025 to ranking dead last in MLB in runs scored in 2026.
There's no separating that from the downfalls of Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez. In 2025, they combined for 92 home runs and 13.8 rWAR. With a month left in 2026, they're at 38 home runs and 3.1 rWAR.
Another major problem is a bullpen with a bottom-10 ERA. Ditto for disappointing returns from offseason additions like Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan, the weirdly inconsistent starting pitching, the… well, the phrase "total system failure" comes to mind with Seattle.
Otherwise, here's the short version for the other teams in the AL West:
- Houston Astros: It's hard to win games with an injury-riddled starting rotation that also has a 5.14 ERA.
- Texas Rangers: The offense has been cold all year and not one of their top starting pitchers has an ERA under 4.00.
- Athletics: An AL-worst 5.48 ERA has made it impossible for them to cover for an offense that has been decimated by injuries.
- Los Angeles Angels: My notes only say "vomitorium."
This is the uncomplicated version. It's also as complicated as it needs to be. Save for the Mariners, the bar in the AL West was set pretty low. Just because they have sunk does not mean a rising tide has come to lift everyone else.
All It Takes Is One AL West Team to Get Hot
Even despite all of the above, we're still living in a world where all three AL West contenders have about the same odds of winning the AL pennant as the league's current No. 2 seed.
The Astros and Rangers are only 3.5 and 4.5 games, respectively, off the pace set by the Chicago White Sox. For now, both Texas clubs share the advantage of upward mobility.
Since hitting a nadir at 11 games under .500 on May 20, the Astros have the third-best record in the AL at 47-36. When all else fails, they have the home run ball to fall back on. They have hit 179 of them, the third-most in MLB.
Since falling six games under .500 on May 28, the Rangers have the AL's fifth-best record at 41-37. The jury's out on Nathan Eovaldi, but they're due to get Josh Jung and Jack Leiter back as reinforcements soon.
This leaves the Mariners as the only one of the three remaining AL West contenders without some measure of top-five aura. Yet they do have one major advantage.
Seen the Mariners' remaining schedule? It makes a cat's naptime look grueling.
Their remaining opponents have a combined .436 winning percentage, largely because they have 17 games left against the teams with the three worst records in MLB. It's the easiest remaining schedule.
The Mariners are already perking up, with wins in eight out of their last 13. All of those are against contenders, so any sustained mojo they can derive from this run should be doubly useful when the pushovers come in September.
Why the AL West Could Surprise People in October
Welcome to the "So you're telling me there's a chance" portion of this program, in which we reassure everyone that even mediocre teams can rise to greatness in the postseason.
Those 2005 Padres didn't win the World Series, but an 83-win St. Louis Cardinals team did just a year later in 2006. They're one of five World Series winners that didn't reach 90 wins, a group that also includes the 2021 Atlanta Braves.
This is relevant to the AL West. The three remaining contenders may be limping to the finish line, but they may yet have teeth to bear come October.
The Case for the Houston Astros
Nobody wants to face Yordan Alvarez in October. He leads the AL in basically everything, including all three Triple Crown categories with a .319 average, 36 home runs and 91 RBI. He also has a .944 OPS and a World Series-winning homer among his playoff credentials.
Jose Altuve and (soon enough) Carlos Correa will be there, too. They have 45 career playoff home runs between them. 'Nuff said.
As suspect as Houston's pitching may be, at least Hunter Brown is rolling with a 2.88 ERA in his last six starts. They also have an elite bullpen trio, with Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and Steven Okert combining for a 1.30 ERA in the second half.
The Case for the Texas Rangers
Even if Jacob deGrom and MacKenzie Gore have ERAs over 4.00, nobody's racing to the bat rack to face either one of them.
Even an aging deGrom, 38, is still fanning 11.0 batters per nine innings, and Gore isn't far behind at 9.9 per nine innings.
Despite their struggles to score runs, you might also be surprised that the Rangers rank third in MLB with a 108 OPS+. It's not an easy lineup to navigate, consisting of as many as six above-average hitters on a good day.
There's also the Corey Seager factor. He's a two-time World Series champ with 19 career playoff home runs. Don't look now, but he's batting .318 with an .884 OPS since returning from his most recent IL stint on July 31.
The Case for the Seattle Mariners
Seattle's offense has finally been showing signs of life, and that's in part because Raleigh has finally woken up. A little swing adjustment and, BOOM, "Big Dumper" goes off for five home runs and eight RBI in a six-game homestand.
A hot Raleigh is a threat. The same goes for a hot J-Rod, a hot Naylor, and a hot Donovan. If the Mariners get even a couple of those guys getting warm in addition to more of the same from erstwhile ALCS MVP Randy Arozarena, nobody will want to face their offense.
As much as Seattle's bullpen stinks now, it stands to benefit from whatever the rotation loses in October. Maybe it's Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock joining Andrés Muñoz. Or, maybe it's Kade Anderson or even Ryan Sloan, the latter of whom might be the one pitching prospect in MLB with an even higher ceiling than Anderson's.
Perhaps this comes across as a noble, yet pointless effort to put lipstick on the most grotesque sow that MLB's divisional era has ever known. In which case… yeah, you've caught me ruby-red-handed.
At least on the American League side, though, it's a good year for an underdog story. There is no dominant team to act as a gatekeeper for the World Series. Heck, the AL has as many teams playing .550 ball as the NL has playing .600 ball. There are winnable leagues and winnable leagues, and the AL is the latter.
To count out the AL West might be logical, but it is not wise. Remember, the only lasting truth in baseball is that stranger things have happened.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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