Updated AL East Forecast and Playoff Matchup Predictions For September

It's crunch time in the American League East. As September nears, three teams are still vying for the division title and the other two are in the wild-card hunt.

There are so many questions that need answering. What makes each team a real or fake contender? How would the playoff picture look if the season ended today? And in case anyone's curious, what do we think will happen?

Let's break it all down, starting with individual looks at the state of the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays.

Note: Playoff odds are according to FanDuel.

State of the Tampa Bay Rays

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Junior Caminero

Record: 79-54

Odds to Win Division: -210

How They're a Real Contender

Well, this team has spent a total of 102 days in first place this season. How much more evidence do you need that the Rays are for real?

As per usual, the best explanation of the Rays is a shrug and an "I don't know, they just do everything well." They're above-average offensively (104 OPS+) and pitching-wise (112 ERA+), and they have a case as the AL's best defensive team.

The star power is there, too. Junior Caminero is chasing a second straight 40-homer season. Yandy Díaz leads the AL in hits. Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen have sub-3.00 ERAs. Bryan Baker is probably the best closer in the AL. Et cetera.

How They're a Fake Contender

All good teams have a habit of beating up on less-good teams, but it still stands out that the Rays are a modest 29-23 against winning clubs and 25-20 against their AL East foes. Put them in a fair fight, and they're vulnerable.

The Rays also have "Playoff frauds!" written all over them. The long ball rules in October, and they have gotten just 101 home runs from hitters not named Caminero.

State of the New York Yankees

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Aaron Judge

Record: 75-57 (3.5 GB)

Odds to Win Division: +270

How They're a Real Contender

You don't want to face the Yankees' pitching. You just don't. They lead MLB with a 3.23 ERA, and they can be especially dangerous in a short playoff series.

Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Gerrit Cole? That's a heck of a Game 1-2-3 punch right there. And the more innings they eat, the less relievers not named David Bednar and Brent Headrick will have to do out of the bullpen.

Offensively, the Yankees lead the AL in home runs even without any from Aaron Judge since May. As he's back to taking batting practice, the thinking is that he'll return from his rib injury sometime in September.

How They're a Fake Contender

Think the Yankees have missed Judge? Since he last played on May 31, they are only five games over .500 and have outscored just two other teams.

As such, it isn't a reach to think that the Yankees' path to the World Series is contingent on Judge being Judge again. That's a lot to ask of a guy who has missed basically three months, and who doesn't have time for a long ramp-up.

State of the Boston Red Sox

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Jarren Duran and Willson Contreras

Record: 73-60 (6.0 GB)

Odds to Win Division: +750

How They're a Real Contender

The Red Sox have won 41 out of their last 55 games. The last time they did that was in 2018, when they went on to win the World Series.

They're the only team in the AL with as many as four 3-WAR hitters. Their bullpen sports an MLB-best 2.85 ERA. They have four starters who can give them a quality start any given time out.

Boston also stands to get as big of a health boost as any team in MLB in September. Roman Anthony, Trevor Story and Curtis Mead should return. So could Garrett Crochet, whose past experience as a reliever could make him extremely useful even if starting again in 2026 is highly unlikely.

How They're a Fake Contender

The Red Sox have survived Crochet's absence during the regular season, but can they keep that up if they make the playoffs? Without him, they have no true No. 1 starter. That doesn't tend to be an advantage come October.

There's also something fishy about the "Different guy every night!" thing Boston has benefited from during its surge. Are guys like Nick Sogard and Mickey Gasper really difference-makers? Or are they merely randos having a moment in the sun?

State of the Baltimore Orioles

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Pete Alonso

Record: 65-68 (14.0 GB)

Odds to Win Division: +30000

How They're a Real Contender

If you gave up on the Orioles when they fell to a season-low nine games under .500 on July 8, just know that they are 23-17 ever since.

It's mostly because they have remembered how to pitch, to the tune of a 3.63 ERA. Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish have led the way, with each making at least seven starts and pitching to an ERA in the 3.00s.

Otherwise, Pete Alonso has determined that now is his time to shine. He's ripped off a 1.040 OPS and 11 home runs since the All-Star break, and the latter count is notably one less than it should be.

How They're a Fake Contender

As hot as Alonso is, this offense's OPS has actually gone down from the first half to the second. It's a .227/.310/.390 slash line, which is just not good.

That's the ballgame right there, and it's not like Alonso has much hope of getting any weight off his shoulders. Adley Rutschman and Taylor Ward are gone, and "Missing" posters remain up for the 2022-25 version of Gunnar Henderson.

State of the Toronto Blue Jays

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Dylan Cease

Record: 65-69 (14.5 GB)

Odds to Win Division: +30000

How They're a Real Contender

The Blue Jays were 10 games under .500 as of July 28, prompting the front office to sell off assets like Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman and Daulton Varsho at the trade deadline.

They have since gone 16-10, in part aided by some fantastic pitching from Dylan Cease. He's allowed a total of 10 earned runs in his last nine starts, with 81 strikeouts over 61.0 innings pitched.

Toronto is otherwise still waiting on its offense to wake up. Who knows? Just as Cal Raleigh has finally found his stroke in Seattle, perhaps Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can do the same and put the Blue Jays lineup on his shoulders.

How They're a Fake Contender

Did that come off as a blatant attempt to competence-wash this offense? Because that's what it was. They're the lowest-scoring team in MLB, and Guerrero's funk somehow seems worse than Raleigh's. Guerrero isn't batting in the .100s, but at least Raleigh can go deep in his home park.

Also, Cease is one of few Toronto pitchers who isn't hurt. Shane Bieber just landed on the injured list, making it an even 10 hurlers on the IL for Toronto.

If the Season Ended Today

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Aroldis Chapman and Adley Rutschman

AL East Playoff Outcomes

• Tampa Bay Rays: No. 1*
• New York Yankees: No. 4^
• Boston Red Sox: No. 5^
• Baltimore Orioles: Out
• Toronto Blue Jays: Out

*Division winner
^Wild card

Ahead for the Rays

As the No. 1 seed in the American League playoff field, the Rays would get a first-round bye and then host the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 4 seeds in the Wild Card Series in the Division Series at Tropicana Field.

As of now, it looks like they would face an AL East rival one way or another. Both the AL West and the AL's third wild card are basically races to .500, and the Red Sox (13 games) and Yankees (18 games) are safely above that threshold.

Ahead for the Yankees and Red Sox

These two long-standing rivals are on track to meet in the Wild Card Series for a best of three at Yankee Stadium.

Either could still win the AL East and grab a first-round bye. Failing that, the only question is whether Boston can pull ahead and ensure that they would host the Yankees at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have won 22 of their last 29 home games.

Ahead for the Orioles and Blue Jays

They're out of the money for now, but Orioles (2.5 GB) and Blue Jays (3.0 GB) are within shouting distance of the Guardians in the wild card race.

According to FanGraphs, Baltimore's and Toronto's chances of making the postseason sit at 13.1 and 10.2 percent, respectively.

Remaining Strength of Schedule

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Yankees vs. Rays

Tampa Bay Rays: .515

• Hard: 3 @ ATL, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ PHI, 4 @ TEX, 3 vs. BOS, 3 vs. SDP, 3 vs. HOU
• Soft: 3 vs. ATH, 3 vs. NYM

This is a pretty brutal remaining schedule for the Rays, especially with a good chunk of their "hard" series set to be on the road. They're 43-23 at Tropicana Field, compared to 36-31 away from home.

New York Yankees: .495

• Hard: 3 @ SDP, 3 @ ARI, 4 vs. TBR, 4 vs. BOS
• Soft: 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ LAA, 3 @ MIN

The Yankees have losing records against the Rays (3-6) and Red Sox (4-5), so those upcoming matchups loom large. Still, any damage they incur in those series could be offset if they stomp the lightweights in their path.

Boston Red Sox: .507

• Hard: 3 @ TBR, 4 @ NYY, 3 @ TEX, 3 vs. CHC, 3 vs. CLE
• Soft: 3 vs. LAA, 3 vs. KCR, 3 vs. SEA, 4 @ BAL

The Red Sox are only looking up at six teams in the MLB standings, and they still have to play three of them. That's rough, and even the "soft" portion of their remaining schedule needs some asterisks. The Orioles and Seattle Mariners are playoff contenders, after all.

Baltimore Orioles: .496

• Hard: 3 @ NYY, 3 vs. MIL, 4 vs. BOS, 3 vs. CLE
• Soft: 3 vs. TOR, 3 @ TOR, 3 @ COL, 3 @ ATH, 3 @ NYM

On that last point, six remaining games against the Blue Jays arguably shouldn't count as "soft" for the Orioles. They'll also need to bring their A game against the four proper contenders coming up. Baltimore is 33-36 against winning clubs.

Toronto Blue Jays: .487

• Hard: 3 @ CLE
• Soft: 3 vs. DET, 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. SEA, 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ BAL, 3 @ KCR, 3 @ ATH

If the Blue Jays are going to make a move in the final month of the regular season, it's clear how it's going to happen. This is about as soft as remaining schedules get, and it's a chance for them to improve on a 29-24 performance against teams with losing records.

Final Predictions

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Willson Contreras

AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox

This might be a case of recency bias run amok, but whatever. The Red Sox have shaved 9.5 games off their AL East deficit just since June 25. What's another 6.0 games by September 27?

It can happen if they keep it up and the Rays backslide even a little. The latter is already underway, as Tampa Bay is limping toward its hard finish to the year with losses in eight out of 13.

AL East Wild Cards: New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays

This is meant to be in order, meaning the Yankees would take the No. 4 seed and the Rays would take the No. 5 seed.

It would represent a stunning fall for the Rays, but their recent skid ahead of a hard schedule feels like a recipe for the inevitable. They have statistically been baseball's luckiest team, and are thus its most prone to regression.

For their part, the Yankees' pitching is firmly within the circle of trust at this point. Their arms can carry them even if Judge needs time to go full-Judge, though one wonders if his return alone could have a galvanizing effect on the offense.

Entire AL Playoff Field

• AL Wild Card Series: Tampa Bay Rays (5) at New York Yankees (4)
• AL Wild Card Series: Cleveland Guardians (6) at Seattle Mariners (3)
• First-Round Byes: Chicago White Sox (2), Boston Red Sox (1)

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.