Ranking Every MLB Team's 2026 Home Run Leader from Obvious to Shocking

It should come as a surprise to no one to look at the MLB leaderboards and see guys like Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani leading their respective teams in home runs once again this year.

On the other hand, no one had Dillon Dingler as the Detroit Tigers top power threat on their preseason bingo card.

With that wide range of outcomes on full display during the 2026 MLB season, we've ranked every team's current home run leader on surprise level relative to preseason expectations.

Projected Preseason HR Leaders

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Cal Raleigh

Before we dive into the rankings, here's a list of the projected preseason leader for each team, based on the Depth Charts projection system from FanGraphs:

ARI: Corbin Carroll/Ketel Marte, 27
ATH: Nick Kurtz, 36
ATL: Ronald Acuña Jr./Matt Olson, 31
BAL: Pete Alonso, 37
BOS: Willson Contreras, 23
CHC: Michael Busch, 28
CWS: Munetaka Murakami, 29
CIN: Eugenio Suárez, 36
CLE: José Ramírez, 29
COL: Hunter Goodman, 29
DET: Riley Greene, 29
HOU: Yordan Alvarez, 30
KC: Bobby Witt Jr., 29
LAA: Jo Adell, 34
LAD: Shohei Ohtani, 46
MIA: Kyle Stowers, 21
MIL: Jackson Chourio, 25
MIN: Byron Buxton, 30
NYM: Juan Soto, 37
NYY: Aaron Judge, 44
PHI: Kyle Schwarber, 43
PIT: Oneil Cruz, 24
SD: Fernando Tatis Jr., 31
SF: Rafael Devers, 31
SEA: Cal Raleigh, 40
STL: Nolan Gorman, 24
TB: Junior Caminero, 39
TEX: Jake Burger, 30
TOR: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 32
WAS: James Wood, 28

No Brainers

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Kyle Schwarber

30. Kyle Schwarber, PHI — 37 HR
29. Shohei Ohtani, LAD — 30 HR
28. Junior Caminero, TB — 35 HR
27. Pete Alonso, BAL — 29 HR
26. Hunter Goodman, COL — 34 HR
25. James Wood, WAS — 30 HR
24. Yordan Alvarez, HOU — 36 HR
23. Juan Soto, NYM — 21 HR
22. Matt Olson, ATL — 36 HR
21. Rafael Devers, SF — 25 HR

With the exception of Pete Alonso who was still on the Mets, Yordan Alvarez who played in only 48 games and Rafael Devers who joined the Giants in a midseason trade, all of the players listed above led their club in home runs last year.

Most are well-established, middle-of-the-order sluggers, and even Hunter Goodman and James Wood had a 30-homer campaign in 2025 to help solidify their status.

The real surprise would be if anyone from this group failed to lead their team in long balls, and it likely would have taken an injury for that to happen.

Not Surprising

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20. Byron Buxton, MIN — 25 HR
19. Ketel Marte, ARI — 21 HR
18. Manny Machado, SD — 24 HR
17. Brandon Lowe, PIT — 27 HR
16. Shea Langeliers, ATH — 23 HR
15. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC — 31 HR
14. Zach Neto, LAA — 21 HR
13. Willson Contreras, BOS — 25 HR

The only thing keeping Byron Buxton off the "No Brainers" page is his injury history, but with 25 home runs in 88 games he edges out Kody Clemens (21 HR) for the team lead.

Ketel Marte, Manny Machado, Brandon Lowe, Shea Langeliers and Pete Crow-Armstrong all entered 2026 with 30-homer seasons on their resume, but power-hitting teammates capable of edging them out for the team lead were enough to land them with this second group.

The Angels leaderboard is a two-man race between Zach Neto (21 HR) and Mike Trout (20 HR) right now, and with Jo Adell traded to the Guardians, they are now the logical top sluggers on the roster.

The Red Sox did not have a major power threat on the roster last season, with Trevor Story pacing the club with 25 homers. Offseason pickup Willson Contreras was projected to lead the team heading into the year, but his 25 bombs also represent a career-high, so he was far from a no-brainer.

Up-And-Comers

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Kazuma Okamoto

12. Munetaka Murakami, CWS — 29 HR
11. Jac Caglianone, KC — 22 HR
10. Sal Stewart, CIN — 27 HR
9. Kazuma Okamoto, TOR — 26 HR

Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto both produced prolific power numbers in Japan, but it's never a given that production will translate immediately.

Murakami being the face of the White Sox resurgence is not the biggest shock given his track record and the young roster around him, but Okamoto outpacing Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others has been a bright spot in a disappointing year for the Blue Jays.

Jac Caglianone entered pro ball with some of the best raw power of any prospect after a storied collegiate career at Florida, and while he was slow to adjust to the big league game after debuting last year, he is starting to come into his own.

With perennial 30/30 threat Elly De La Cruz and veteran slugger Eugenio Suarez on the roster, Sal Stewart leading the Reds roster and all NL rookies with 27 homers has been a nice boon to the organization's future outlook. He gave a glimpse of his pop a year ago with five homers in 18 games as a September call-up.

Legitimately Surprising

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Jordan Walker

8. Ben Rice, NYY — 34 HR

After slugging 26 home runs in his first full season in the majors in 2025, Rice taking another step forward with his first 30-homer campaign has not been a major shock.

However, Aaron Judge was the obvious candidate to lead the team in long balls before he was injured, and Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger also out-homered Rice a year ago, so his leapfrog to the top of the team leaderboard qualifies as a legitimate surprise.

7. Joc Pederson, TEX — 22 HR

The Rangers signed Joc Pederson to a two-year, $37 million deal prior to the 2025 season, and he was a major flop in his first season with the team, hitting .181 with nine home runs in 306 plate appearances.

The 34-year-old has bounced back nicely this season, and with Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford both missing time to injury, his 22 bombs have been enough to pace a Rangers team vying for the AL West title.

6. Jordan Walker, STL — 26 HR

After hitting a combined .211/.270/.324 with 11 home runs and a 30.7 percent strikeout rate in 574 plate appearances between the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Jordan Walker was tiptoeing dangerously close to bust territory entering 2026.

The former first-round pick and top prospect has finally turned a corner this season, delivering on the elite-level power potential he showed throughout his time in the minors.

No. 5 Biggest Surprise: Heriberto Hernández, Miami Marlins

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HR Total: 18

Considering Kyle Stowers was the only player on the Marlins roster projected to hit more than 20 home runs with a whopping 21, the placement here is as much team-centric as it is player-centric.

That said, how many people outside of Miami knew who Heriberto Hernández was at the start of the year?

How many know who he is now?

The 26-year-old joined the Marlins as a minor league free agent prior to the 2025 season, and he quietly debuted with a 118 OPS+ and 10 home runs in 87 games a year ago. He is a bat-only player with limited value beyond what he does in the batter's box, but he has turned into a viable run producer.

No. 4 Biggest Surprise: Julio Rodríguez/Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners

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HR Total: 19

Cal Raleigh was baseball's biggest breakout star during the 2025 season, launching 60 home runs to set a new single-season record for a catcher while finishing runner-up to Aaron Judge in AL MVP voting.

Anyone other than him leading the team in homers this year would have been a shocking prediction heading into the year, but his production has fallen off a cliff, as he sports a .156 average and 13 home runs in 94 games.

Julio Rodríguez was the obvious candidate to pace the team if it wasn't Raleigh, but him sharing the lead with Dominic Canzone is an unexpected turn of events.

The Mariners have lacked consistent middle-of-the-order thump all year, and it's the biggest hole on a team with a rock-solid starting staff.

No. 3 Biggest Surprise: Chase DeLauter/Rhys Hoskins/Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians

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Chase DeLauter

HR Total: 13

That's not a typo: 13 home runs is enough to lead the Guardians.

Few clubs had a more obvious home run leader entering the year than Cleveland, with star third baseman José Ramírez coming off a 30-homer campaign and yet another top-five finish in AL MVP balloting.

However, a slow start followed by a fractured hamate bone in June has sapped his power and cost him time, and that created a major power void throughout the Guardians lineup.

Rookie Chase DeLauter hit four home runs in his first three games to open the year, which has helped prop up his total. Veterans Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Manzardo have both been viable 30-homer threats in the past, but the real shock here is that it's not J-Ram and it's not more than 13.

No. 2 Biggest Surprise: Dillon Dingler, Detroit Tigers

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HR Total: 26

Dillon Dingler seized Detroit's starting catcher job last season with a 3.2-WAR campaign, and while he posted a 108 OPS+ with 13 home runs, much of that value was built on his defense as he was the AL Gold Glove winner at catcher.

Riley Greene (36 HR in 2025), Spencer Torkelson (31 HR in 2025) and Kerry Carpenter (26 HR in 2025) were all logical candidates to lead the Tigers in homers, but Dingler was projected for just 13 long balls once again.

Instead, he has already doubled his previous total, and with an expected slugging percentage that ranks in the 90th percentile it looks like a sustainable spike in power production.

With club control through 2030 and the foundation of his elite defense, Dingler has quickly emerged as one of the most valuable players on the Detroit roster and a legitimate middle-of-the-order run producer.

No. 1 Biggest Surprise: Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers

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HR Total: 22

Jake Bauers was a cheap power source for the Brewers in 2024 and 2025, but the club's small-market profile made him a non-tender candidate at the start of last offseason.

Instead, he returned on a $2.7 million salary in his second year of arbitration, and that has made him one of the biggest bargains of the year as he has been an anchor in the middle of the lineup for the first-place Brewers.

The 30-year-old had never topped 12 home runs in a season prior to this year, and preseason projections had him eighth on the club with 12 homers and only 294 plate appearances.

Rather than filling a part-time role, he has a 144 OPS+ with 22 home runs and 72 RBI over 461 plate appearances while spending much of the year penciled into the No. 3 and No. 4 spots in the batting order.