Christian McCaffrey and Fantasy Football 2026 Bust Candidates to Avoid

With the NFL preseason now in full swing, fantasy managers are closing in on draft time. Over the next couple of weeks, they'll evaluate depth charts, peruse practice reports, and dive into the latest preseason buzz in order to uncover those sleepers and late-round gems.

Of course, while finding strong sleeper value can help build a championship roster, it's equally important to avoid early-draft busts. Unfortunately, some notable veterans bust every single year.

The reasons are many. Some players struggle to match previous production following a change of scenery. Others battle injuries, fall victim to a changing role, or simply revert to form after an unexpectedly strong season.

Here, we'll examine a few notable names to consider avoiding at their current average draft position (ADP). All picks and analysis are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/John Raoux

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence had a splendid season in his first year under head coach Liam Coen. He stayed healthy, topped 4,000 passing yards, and hit career highs in passing (29) and rushing (9) touchdowns.

However, Lawrence has battled injuries in recent seasons and could easily regress in his second season with Coen. For one, opposing defenses will be better prepared to deal with whatever Coen dials up for his quarterback. Secondly, the Jags' offense could be more one-dimensional after losing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency.

Yes, Jacksonville is high on second-year back Bhayshul Tuten, but the team's confidence doesn't guarantee that he'll replace the 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 scores Etienne had last season.

Add in the fact that Lawrence has a history of being turnover-prone (58 INTs in 5 seasons), and it's impossible to consider Lawrence a safe pick. He should be viewed as a high-end streamer instead of a surefire starter. Yet, his ADP currently puts him ahead of QBs like Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Bo Nix.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

It's almost painful to doubt Christian McCaffrey, who has regularly been a league-winner when healthy. However, the San Francisco 49ers star carries a few red flags heading into 2026.

The biggest red flag is the reality that McCaffrey is a 30-year-old running back with an extensive injury history who logged a league-high 413 touches last season—plus another 37 in the playoffs. McCaffrey racked up 2,126 yards and 17 touchdowns last season, but he may struggle to stay productive and efficient this year.

And efficiency wasn't exactly McCaffrey's greatest strength last season, as he averaged 3.9 yards per carry, his lowest average since 2020.

Adding to the concerns is the fact that McCaffrey was out of practice this past week with "tightness."

While McCaffrey should be effective early in the season—if healthy, and especially if tight end George Kittle (ACL) is sidelined early—he'll have to stay near 100 percent to come close to replicating last year's numbers. Those are big ifs for a player whose ADP has him trending as a mid-first-round pick and RB4.

Jaylen Waddle, RB, Denver Broncos

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle had a solid 2025 campaign despite playing in an underwhelming Miami Dolphins offense. He tallied 910 yards and six touchdowns on 64 receptions through 16 games.

Waddle has been much more productive in the past, logging over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards in his first three NFL seasons. His offseason trade to the Denver Broncos could allow the Alabama product to return to form.

The change of scenery appears to be why Waddle has an ADP of 50 overall.

The problem is that, in Miami, Waddle was regularly force-fed the football. That's unlikely to happen in Denver. The Broncos have a deep backfield, a quarterback who will scramble, and other experienced receivers—including Courtland Sutton, who flashed his own big-play ability in Friday's preseason opener.

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns

AP PhotoKirk Irwin

Cleveland Browns rookie tight end was one of the biggest fantasy surprises of 2025. Despite playing in a putrid offense, the Bowling Green product caught 72 passes for 731 yards and six touchdowns. However, there's a very real chance that he goes from being a 2025 sleeper to a 2026 bust.

This isn't to say that Fannin won't be a productive player in Year 2. However, he largely served as Cleveland's de facto No. 1 receiver last season, and isn't likely to fill that role as a sophomore.

The Browns lacked reliable wideouts last year but added both Kevin Concepcion and Denzel Boston in April's draft. And, while Cleveland did part with tight end David Njoku in free agency, it still has uncertainty at quarterback and a new offense under new head coach Todd Monken.

Fannin should still be viewed as a viable streaming option, but with an ADP that has him trending as TE6, he's very likely to disappoint.

*Fantasy ADP from FantasyPros