Paul Skenes, Cal Raleigh and MLB's Most Bizarre Superstar Slumps of 2026

As the 2026 MLB season heads into the stretch run, it's remarkable to behold this year's landscape of star players and notice how different it looks, mostly because of who's not present.

If there are two poster boys for the shift, they're Cal Raleigh and Paul Skenes. They have gone from ranking second and fourth in fWAR in 2025 to 446th and 166th, respectively. It's as if both took an express elevator to irrelevance.

There are some other notable absences from this year's class of stars. Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner and José Ramírez have dropped over 100 spots from last year's WAR ranks. That's nothing compared to Garrett Crochet, who's down over 1,000 spots.

But at least with those guys, one can point to age- and injury-related explanations. Raleigh and Skenes are 20-somethings who have been healthy for most of 2026. So what gives?

Let's take a close look at the two of them (plus a few others) and determine once and for all whether they're as cooked as they seem.

What Happened to Paul Skenes?

2025 Stats: 32 GS, 187.2 IP, 136 H (11 HR), 216 K, 42 BB, 1.97 ERA

2026 Stats: 25 GS, 134.2 IP, 114 H (14 HR), 166 K, 37 BB, 3.88 ERA

In seemingly no time at all, Skenes has gone from an all-time great young pitcher to a guy whose manager, Don Kelly, lifted him after 65 pitches in his most recent start because it "gave us the best chance to win."

Skenes just isn't throwing the ball like he did as the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 or as the NL Cy Young Award winner in 2025. He only averaged 95.7 mph on the fastball in the aforementioned game, in which his Pittsburgh Pirates suffered a 2-0 loss to the Miami Marlins. And even before then, the warning signs were there:

If the 24-year-old Skenes is injured, the Bucs either haven't noticed or are keeping it secret. And without such an easy explanation, all we can do is theorize.

Theory 1: It's a World Baseball Classic Hangover

Skenes suited up for Mark DeRosa and Team USA for this year's World Baseball Classic and ended up throwing 8.1 innings of one-run ball.

It's not a lot of work in the grand scheme of things, but the WBC requires a different intensity than guys are used to in March. And that shows in the velocity on Skenes' fastball during the WBC compared to his velocity in spring training:

• World Baseball Classic: 97.7 mph
• Spring Training: 96.5 mph

That's a lot of extra gas, and the only time Skenes came close to it during this season was throwing 97.4 mph in April. It's been downhill from there.

Theory 2: It's Mechanical

It's cliché for players to cite mechanical issues as a catch-all explanation for a slump, but Skenes would have a case if he were to do that.

His arm angle has not only gotten higher in 2026, but also progressively higher as the year has gone on. And even if that doesn't explain the velocity loss, it could explain other issues.

Skenes' four-seamer and sinker have lost some of the arm-side movement they had in 2025, making both pitches flatter. More broadly, the quality of his pitches has actually slipped below average.

Verdict: Nothing That Can't Be Fixed

Again, this is assuming that Skenes isn't pitching through an injury. If he's not, his struggles in 2026 shouldn't be a forever thing. The WBC isn't every year, and surely someone on the Bucs can help get his mechanics back on track.

What Happened to Cal Raleigh?

2025 Stats: 159 G, 705 PA, 60 HR, .247 AVG, .359 OBP, .589 SLG

2026 Stats: 87 G, 367 PA, 12 HR, .161 AVG, .270 OBP, .301 SLG

True, the odds of Raleigh having another 60-homer season were always so low as to be subterranean. Yet one could have at least expected 30 or 40 bombs, much less a batting average somewhere in the vicinity of .200.

Instead, what we have here is one of the great year-to-year declines in MLB history:

The Seattle Mariners haven't gone as far as benching "Big Dumper," but Dan Wilson seems close to it. On Opening Day, the 29-year-old was Seattle's No. 2 hitter. More recently, he's been seen in the No. 8 spot.

Theory 1: The World Baseball Classic Messed Him Up, Too

The WBC was tough on Raleigh in multiple ways, as there was that weird spat with Randy Arozarena and a benching following a 0-for-9 out of the gate.

The tournament and subsequent preparation may have contributed to Raleigh's difficult start, though that connection cannot be established conclusively.

Take it from DeRosa, who saw a guy who was trying very hard to break out of the slump that eventually landed him on the pine. Or take it from Mariners bench coach Manny Acta, who thinks the oblique injury that landed Raleigh on the IL in May had roots in his post-WBC efforts to play catch-up in spring training.

Theory 2: It's Mechanical…Unless It's Mental

Since the World Baseball Classic was nearly six months ago, it has arguably lost relevance as an excuse for Raleigh's struggles. And when it comes down to it, what really matters is that he just can't hit fastballs:

• 2025: .662 SLG, +28 Run Value
• 2026: .244 SLG, -17 Run Value

Raleigh's average bat speed is only down 0.3 mph from 2025, which doesn't seem extreme enough to cause this kind of deterioration. With credit to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and his deep dive into Raleigh's swing, this might be mechanical.

Speaking as someone who has watched a lot of Mariners games this year, I personally see a guy who has lost his approach as well. Relative to 2025, Raleigh is swinging earlier in counts and expanding the zone more often. It's as if he's deliberately trying to swing his way out of it, and only digging his hole deeper.

Verdict: The 2025 Cal Raleigh May Not Return

This is a bit of a cop-out, as it implies that Raleigh is neither as bad as he has been in 2026 nor as good as he was in 2025. He should be able to recover from this year, but probably not until 2027. Even then, Mariners fans should only expect the Raleigh who was a .300-ish OBP guy before last season to show up.

What Happened to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker and Gunnar Henderson?

Apart from Skenes and Raleigh, there are three other 2025-to-2026 star declines that aren't quite as severe, but still defy easy explanation.

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

The Gist: From 8 HR in the 2025 postseason to just 7 HR in the 2026 season.

As weird as Guerrero's struggles are, they're not totally surprising. He's always had a flatter bat path that has held back his immense raw power. And until that changes, he's going to live or die on his swing decisions.

And this year, he has the fourth-highest increase in out-of-zone swing rate from last season. And he's just not the bad-ball hitter that his old man was, as he's slugging just .268 when he expands the zone.

Verdict: He's better than this, but expectations are best shifted down from 30 homers to more like 20-25 annually.

RF Kyle Tucker, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Gist: From a 144 OPS+ for 2021-25 to a 100 OPS+ in 2026.

Tucker's swing speed is down 0.8 mph from the 2024 season, so you wonder if he's still not right physically after a fractured hand and a calf injury limited him in the latter half of last season.

Once again, though, we have a guy whose swing decisions aren't helping. Tucker's out-of-zone swing rate is up 7.0 percentage points from 2025, the 15th-highest increase in the league.

Verdict: This feels more like a guy trying to adjust to a new normal than a guy who's past his prime, so don't assume Tucker is done as an All-Star just yet.

SS Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

The Gist: From 7.9 fWAR in 2024 to 2.2 fWAR in 2026.

Henderson being this mid is more of a bummer than a true surprise. He is up from 17 homers last year to 19 homers so far this year, yet still nowhere near his 37-homer pace of 2024. He also has just a .687 OPS.

His batted-ball metrics have likewise taken a turn for the worse, and this really does seem to be a bat speed problem. His swing averaged 76.2 mph in 2024. It's averaging 74.4 mph in 2026.

Verdict: The superstar potential should still be there, but it could take a change of scenery to unlock it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.