UFC 330 Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry and Main Card B/R Staff Predictions

After close to a year out of action, Islam Makhachev will finally return to action this weekend.

The Russian, a protege of undefeated MMA legend Khabib Nurmagomedov, will make his return in the main event of UFC 330 in Philadelphia, where he will attempt to defend his welterweight title against once-beaten Irishman Ian Machado Garry. 

Makhachev is no stranger to title defenses. While he has yet to defend the welterweight belt he won with a beatdown of Jack Della Maddalena last year, he previously defended UFC lightweight gold multiple times, defeating fighters like Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski in the process. 

Despite Makhachev's experience as a two-division champion, it is a fairly common feeling that Garry, who is riding wins over Belal Muhammad and Carlos Prates and has only lost a narrow decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov, has at least a decent chance of pulling off an upset win that would flip the entire sport on its axis. 

There will also be a title on the line in the UFC 330 co-main event, as Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Mackenzie Dern defends her strawweight belt for the first time against Canadian grappler Gillian Robertson. 

Before that gets underway, we'll get a lightweight scrap between Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes, and a middleweight clash between Mansur Abdul-Malik and Dustin Stoltzfus. The main card opener, finally, will be a fan-friendly lightweight clash between Edson Barboza and Esteban Ribovics. 

It's all just days away now. Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all shaking out in Philly.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Anyone familiar with these pieces knows that Fitz has his guys. Charles Oliveira and Paddy Pimblett are two of them. And Machado Garry is another. Ten wins in 11 UFC fights earn that sort of street cred, and the Irishman's persona doesn't hurt the status.

There's no argument that Makhachev deserves his spot as the top pound-for-pounder in the promotion, but it's no less true to suggest Garry presents a challenge unlike any the champ has faced since becoming the top man at 170 pounds.

No shade intended toward Jack Della Maddalena, but Garry is elite on his feet and ought to present more of an obstacle for smothering than the Australian did. He'll land enough to dissuade the champ and go from there to find success over 25 minutes.

Prediction: Garry by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: This is probably as bad a matchup as I can imagine for Makhachev. 

Although I do think it's become a bit trendy to bet against him in this one, the confidence behind Garry is justified due to a number of advantages the Irishman holds. That's wild to say when Makhachev hasn't suffered defeat in 11 years.

Garry's fight IQ and ability to control the distance feel important here. He's not one for being taken down or staying there. Should that play out as it normally does, he will find openings to let go and start piecing his opponent up. 

Makhachev may feel he needs to smother the taller man quickly and start chipping away, but I just can't see Garry letting that happen.

Prediction: Garry by split decision

Tom Taylor: I'm not a huge Garry fan. I'm not rooting against him either, just kind of indifferent to him, which gives me confidence that no bias is clouding my judgment as I dissect this matchup.

I honestly feel he might beat Makhachev this weekend. 

There are so many factors in the Irishman's favor. He's tall, long, and incredibly intelligent in the Octagon—all factors that will serve him well against the smaller but extremely crafty Makhachev. He's also quite experienced against world-class talent and has dealt with the skills of other dominant grapplers like Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov, which gives me confidence that he won't be out of his depth with Makhachev on the mat. Then there are the intangibles, like his unshakable confidence. 

I know it sounds crazy, and I am fully aware that I'm likely to be wrong, but it's a feeling I can't shake. The Irishman sticks, moves, defends takedowns, and maybe even offers up a few surprises on the mat en route to a decision win. And new.

Prediction: Garry by unanimous decision 

Adam Kramer: In terms of styles, this fight is fascinating.

Makhachev would prefer to keep this one on the cage or on the mat. Garry would like to keep things upright, tactically picking up rounds with volume.

Something's got to give.

Makhachev, who says he's worked on his conditioning prior to this fight in preparation for Garry's movement, sounds committed to tracking down the bigger fighter. Garry, who has fought with a very mobile style, one dedicated to tactical volume, isn't likely to change now.

To Garry's credit, he's passed nearly every test. His lone loss came to the marvelous Shavkat Rakhmonov, and there really isn't any shame in that.

Still, he hasn't ended a fight early since May of 2023. While that style has worked against a slew of exceptional fighters, that's a dangerous formula in a five-round fight against Makhachev.

Maybe the height will be a problem. Garry will be a good four inches taller than Makhachev, and he's undoubtedly benefited from months of training with Charles Oliveira. He's been schooled. He'll be prepared. But it won't matter.

Garry has five-round seasoning, but this will be an entirely different obstacle. Eventually, Makhachev catches him, and he'll keep him down when he does.

Prediction: Makhachev by unanimous decision

Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson

Giuseppe CACACE / AFP via Getty Images

Lyle Fitzsimmons: An old boxing adage suggests a fighter automatically gets better upon winning a championship. It'll be no different for Dern, who'd put in 20 fights over nine-plus years before finally getting a title belt slung over her shoulder last October.

She was taken down plenty but always found her way back to a competitive position while beating longtime contender Virna Jandiroba to win the belt, and it doesn't figure to be different against a streaking Robertson, who arrives having won 14 of 20 and five in a row.

Prediction: Dern by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: I'm not sure there's anyone in the UFC who put in as much work as Mackenzie Dern did to become champion. She climbed the mountain after a serious grind, and against Gillian Robertson, I think she'll breeze through no matter where the fight ends up.

Dern is unlikely to be outgrappled, and even less likely to be outstruck. Her frontfootedness will be difficult for Robertson to deal with. I actually back her in making a statement by seriously dissecting the challenger.

Prediction: Dern by TKO, Rd. 2.

Tom Taylor: I have high hopes for this fight. 

Both the champion Mackenzie Dern and challenger Gillian Robertson have excellent grappling, which could lead to some very interesting exchanges on the mat.

That said, there are levels to such things, and there are few grapplers on the women's side of the sport as dangerous as Dern. Her recent wins over Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Ribas were solid evidence of this. If she can handle them, she'll be able to handle Robertson too. 

Of course, she'll still only be keeping the throne warm for former champ Zhang Weili, who will hopefully return to the division soon to restore order. 

Prediction: Dern by unanimous decision 

Adam Kramer: Let's give Robertson some credit. After all, it wasn't terribly long ago that she had lost three or four fights, likely putting her MMA future in flux. Since that moment, she's gone 7-1, and she hasn't lost since June 2023.

Dern can relate. She lost four of six fights, even more recently, before ripping off three straight wins against superb opponents. Her latest triumph against Virna Jandiroba was a five-round masterpiece.

Making this fight more compelling is just how similar these two are in attacking opponents. In fact, this is likely to be a jiu-jitsu masterclass of sorts, with both fighters capable of inflicting damage on the ground. Robertson, to her credit, has sprinkled in a couple of knockouts along the way as well.

Dern, however, just feels a cut above. Sure, she's been finished, and she'll have to protect herself. But her win over Jandiroba was eye-opening.

From the endurance standpoint, this feels like the edge. Dern last won a high-level fight by going five rounds. Robertson has yet to truly experience a fourth round, and that could be the difference.

Prediction: Dern by unanimous decision

Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: I'm glad Jalin Turner reconsidered his retirement plans. He probably won't ever win a UFC title, but he's an excellent fighter with the skill to beat—and actually finish—most lightweights outside the top 15.

I don't think he'll have much trouble with Kaue Fernandes. The Brazilian is good, but he hasn't fought anybody with anywhere near Turner's skill or experience. He's never been finished before, but he'll learn how it feels on Saturday.

Prediction: Turner by TKO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Two guys heading in opposite competitive directions meet in the main card's lightweight replacement fight.

Turner has provided some viral moments during a seven-year UFC run, but four losses in his last six fights indicate he's reached his octagonal level. Fernandes, meanwhile, is six inches shorter than his "Tarantula"-like opponent, but he's won three in a row with two finishes since a narrow split-decision loss in a Fight Night debut in 2023.

Does that necessarily mean Fernandes wins here? No.

But it's a good enough reason to believe he'll negate Turner's striking edge and make it ugly enough to snag a verdict.

Prediction: Fernandes by unanimous decision

Adam Kramer: This fight deserves to be on the main card, and some last-minute changes give this one the spotlight it deserves.

When he's on, Jalin Turner is capable of greatness. His game is diverse, his movements are explosive, and his potential is enormous. But will we get that fighter? Or will we see the version that lost three of four fights before coming back after a longer stretch off with a win?

Kaue Fernandes has won four of his last five fights, although he hasn't exactly been active. He, like Turner, is plenty violent, and it could make for an exciting fight. 

Turner is a tough fighter to project, although we're backing him once again. 

Prediction: Turner by unanimous decision

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

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Lyle Fitzsimmons: The 28-year-old Abdul-Malik gets his barometer against Stoltzfus, 34, who comes in having dropped a pair of decisions in 2025 and without a hand raise since 2024.

The younger man, meanwhile, was 9-0-1 in his first 10 as a pro before meeting his match with a third-round TKO loss to Yousri Belgaroui five months ago in Seattle.

Says here that the 20-something gets his groove back here.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, Rd. 2

Nick Akerman: Firstly, how is this fight so high up the card? Secondly, I agree wholeheartedly with Fitz. 

This is the first time we're seeing Abdul-Malik head into a bout off the back of a loss, so I would expect to see greater motivation and a sharper performance. It feels to me that Stoltzfus is heading towards the end of his UFC career, and I wouldn't be surprised if Abdul-Malik is the man to make that a quicker reality than it initially seems.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, Rd. 1.

Tom Taylor: There was a time not all that long ago when I would have been pretty disappointed to see a fighter like Dustin Stoltzfus, who has lost three of his last four, on the main card of a major UFC event.

Unfortunately, I'm now jaded enough that I don't even bat an eye when low-level fighters work their way into these kinds of spots. I'm really not trying to disrespect the guy, but I have doubts he even belongs on the UFC roster, let alone so close to the top of a card like this. 

I think this matchup will reaffirm what I've said above. Abdul-Malik is young, powerful, and talented enough that he should have no trouble stopping a guy who's suffered two first-round KO losses in the last four years. 

He'll prove that he belongs...and that his opponent doesn't. 

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by KO, Rd. 1

Adam Kramer: On a night that features plenty of sizeable chalks, Abdul-Malik is likely to close as the biggest favorite on the main card.

Stoltzfus has lost three of his last five fights, and he hasn't fought since last September. Abdul-Malik lost his last time out, although his performances up until that point have been largely solid. Perhaps the only concern is that his loss in March could linger.

Still, the odds here tell a story. As do decent performances. Despite the most recent loss, Abdul-Malik should come out motivated. He's also the more dangerous fighter.

This one might not last long.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, Round 1

Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics

Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Though he's got a reputation as an octagonal assassin, Edson Barboza hasn't actually won a fight since 2023, having dropped subsequent decisions to Lerone Murphy and Drakkar Klose and falling in one round to Jalin Turner.

Meanwhile, Esteban Ribovics strikes at a higher rate, scores takedowns at a higher percentage, and seems within his element in this one.

Prediction: Ribovics by unanimous decision

Nick Akerman: Age is such an annoying thing. I love Barboza, but Ribovics' energy and output will cause him a lot of issues.

Ribovics will serve up a taste of Barboza's own medicine, chopping the legs and slowly working away to wear the older man down. 

Although he's not a prolific knockout artist, the 30-year-old will fancy his chances at bloodying and eventually burying the veteran who is on a three-fight skid.

Prediction: Ribovics by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: This is a pretty simple matchup to call for me. 

At this point, it's pretty clear where Ribovics' ceiling is. He can beat a lot of mid-level lightweights, but runs into problems when he's matched up with the division's elite fighters, like Mateusz Gamrot. 

While Barboza was once absolutely elite, that is clearly no longer the case. In 2026, the Brazilian is well below the level of fighter I think Ribovics can handle.

Ribovics is not exactly a prolific finisher, but Barboza wasn't particularly durable in the best of times, and is clearly quite fragile now. In other words, I don't think this will be pretty for the fading veteran or his fans.

Prediction: Ribovics by TKO, Rd. 2

Adam Kramer: The good news for Barboza, beyond having a superb MMA career, is that his three consecutive losses have come against pretty remarkable competition. Still, he's lost three straight fights, and he's outwardly acknowledged this could be his final fight.

If that is the case, what a run.

Ribovics is 10 years younger and simply better at this point. Coming off a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot, he will have a much different style to deal with this time around.

And while it would be fabulous to see Barboza give this a run, it just doesn't seem likely.

Prediction: Ribovics by unanimous decision