Ranking NFL QBs Most Likely to Lose Their Starting Job During 2026 Season

The 2026 NFL season is still weeks from kicking off, but there are already several projected starting quarterbacks on the hot seat.

Whether they've failed to live up to the lofty expectations set by their draft slot, regressed significantly in recent years or are getting pushed by a backup for their starting job, these signal-callers aren't going into the new campaign with much job security.

With that in mind, let's rank—based on the chances they are replaced this season and how quickly that is likely to happen—the NFL QBs who are most likely to lose their starting job in 2026.

Honorable Mentions

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

C.J. Stroud

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

After being taken atop the 2023 NFL draft, Young suffered through two abysmal years that had him looking far closer to a bust than a franchise quarterback.

A bounce-back performance in 2025—which included taking the Panthers to the playoffs for the first time since 2017—gave him new life, but there's still no guarantee he will remain Carolina's long-term signal-caller.

Even after having his fifth-year option picked up, Young is still in make-or-break territory this season. If he significantly regresses and Carolina plummets from NFC South contention, the team could consider plugging in free-agent pickup Kenny Pickett and exploring their options for the 2027 campaign.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

It wasn't too long ago that the Texans appeared to have their quarterback position solidified for the foreseeable future.

The decision to draft Stroud at No. 2 overall in 2023 paid immediate dividends, with the Ohio State passer winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award while becoming the latest young QB to lead his team from the league's basement to the playoffs.

While Stroud has helped Houston cinch up another pair of postseason appearances during the two seasons that followed, he regressed in each of the last two campaigns and hit rock bottom during the 2026 playoffs.

After fumbling five times and throwing five interceptions across the team's two postseason games, there is every reason to be concerned about his long-term viability.

Working in Stroud's favor is a lack of alternatives Houston has if the wheels come off.

Backup Davis Mills isn't a starting-caliber signal-caller in the NFL, while sophomore third-stringer Graham Mertz is still just a developmental prospect. Regardless, the Texans might have to consider making a change if they continue backsliding with Stroud under center.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were one of the hottest teams in football at the midpoint of last season thanks to some MVP-caliber play from Jones.

Although they have decided to run it back in 2026 based on that performance, the team's collapse following Jones' injuries is a glaring red flag.

The 2019 No. 6 overall pick has struggled with availability throughout his NFL tenure, missing multiple games on a consistent basis.

While he looked great during his first eight starts in Indy, things took a turn for the worse following a fibula injury. Between Weeks 9 and 14—when he went down with an Achilles tear—he only completed 62.4 percent of his throws for 1,039 yards and six touchdowns against five interceptions.

If Jones isn't fully healthy in 2026, the Colts will have yet another quarterback conundrum to deal with.

Expect the team to give Anthony Richardson, if he sticks around, or Riley Leonard some serious thought if Jones isn't living up to his new contract.

5. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

The Minnesota Vikings landed one of the most intriguing free-agent pickups of the offseason when they signed Kyler Murray to a one-year, $1.3 million contract.

The 28-year-old was brought in to push J.J. McCarthy following a painful sophomore effort and could usurp the incumbent starter.

Murray has shown far more than McCarthy during his tenure in the NFL, which includes an Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2019 and a pair of Pro Bowl nods in the subsequent two seasons, but he hasn't been at that level in recent years.

While injuries have played some role in that regression, the 2019 No. 1 overall pick hasn't looked great when healthy, either. If he struggles at any point early in the season, it's possible head coach Kevin O'Connell gives McCarthy a chance to take back over.

McCarthy has had some bright spots of his own—including leading an epic fourth-quarter comeback in last season's opener—but injuries, mistakes and inconsistency forced the Vikings to sign Murray. 

Minnesota notably "dumbed down" the offense to assist McCarthy last year, but another offseason to learn with his job on the line could give the Michigan product the motivation he needs to lock in and master it.

While Murray will likely come out of training camp with the starting job, the veteran could cause McCarthy to finally live up to the potential he displayed at Michigan and led the Vikings to draft him No. 10 overall two years ago.

4. Geno Smith, New York Jets

AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

The New York Jets knew they wouldn't be able to find a franchise passer early in the 2026 draft.

The lack of available arm talent led the club to trade for Geno Smith early in the offseason, reuniting Gang Green with a veteran who took a winding journey back to the team that selected him No. 39 overall 13 years ago.

While Smith found unexpected success nearly a decade into his career by earning a pair of Pro Bowl nods with the Seattle Seahawks in 2022-23, he struggled in his first season after leaving the Pacific Northwest. The veteran went 2-13 with the Las Vegas Raiders last year, throwing a league-worst 17 interceptions and taking an NFL-high 55 sacks.

Despite the miserable season, Smith still looks like New York's best choice going into 2026. That may not be the case for long, however, especially if rookie Cade Klubnik shows promise during training camp and the preseason.

The Jets took a flier on Klubnik in the fourth round, getting a player who likely would have come off the board far earlier had he come out of Clemson a year sooner. Rather than boost his draft stock as a senior, Klubnik regressed during a disappointing Tigers campaign.

Despite the down year, Klubnik still possesses a quick release, good anticipation and an ability to escape the rush. While he'll need to improve his processing skills and knack for getting thrown off his rhythm, the potential for Klubnik to emerge as New York's No. 1 QB is readily apparent.

If Smith continues to decline and the Jets fade from playoff contention, Klubnik should get a chance to earn some reps and prove himself.

3. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

The Arizona Cardinals jettisoned longtime quarterback Kyler Murray this offseason, opening the door for Jacoby Brissett to continue starting as he did for much of 2025.

While Brissett is likely to open the new season as Arizona's QB1, he's not a great bet to finish out the year in that role.

The 33-year-old may be a steady hand with plenty of reps logged across a 10-year career spent with six different franchises, but there's a reason he's a journeyman instead of entrenched starter.

Brissett can take care of the football—his career 1.4 percent interception rate is the best in league history—but he isn't skilled enough to lift an offense in any meaningful way. He has won just 20 of his 65 career starts, including going a brutal 1-11 for Arizona last year.

Arizona has several options to turn to if Brissett doesn't get stronger results in 2026. The team added veteran Gardner Minshew II in free agency, but the more appealing choice would be third-round rookie Carson Beck.

Beck became the third signal-caller off the board during the 2026 draft after a decorated collegiate career that included successful runs at both Georgia and Miami.

While the 24-year-old isn't brimming with upside, he's more pro-ready than most first-year passers and could provide a much-needed jolt to a Cardinals offense desperate to establish an identity.

2. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

The Cleveland Browns are holding yet another quarterback competition this offseason. With Todd Monken now at the wheel, the head coach must determine whether Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders is the best choice to orchestrate his system.

While Sanders is the incumbent starter and even earned a Pro Bowl nod for his efforts sparking some life into a moribund squad, he often looked every bit of a fifth-round rookie who was in over his head.

His stats were pedestrian at best—a 56.6 percent completion rate, 1,400 passing yards and seven touchdowns in eight games certainly doesn't read like traditional Pro Bowl line—and he won just three of seven starts.

Watson is far from an ideal replacement, especially after missing all of 2025 with injury, but the Browns still owe him a heap of guaranteed dollars as he prepares for the last remaining season of his five-year, $250 million contract.

The 30-year-old has struggled during his three stints as Cleveland's QB1—posting a 9-10 record with 3,365 yards and 19 touchdowns in those contests—but has the upside of a three-time Pro Bowl passer who rated as one of the NFL's best during his time with the Houston Texans.

Watson's superior talent and potential will likely get him the first chance at running the show, but any injury setbacks or disappointments will open the door for Sanders to retake the reins.

1. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

The Atlanta Falcons have displayed plenty of patience with Michael Penix Jr., but time could be running out for their controversial 2024 first-round pick.

With injuries keeping him off the field for long stretches and poor play plaguing the passer when he's active, it wouldn't be a shock to see Tua Tagovailoa take over sooner than later.

It's far from guaranteed that Penix even keeps his QB1 role to open the 2026 season. The two-year veteran was still recovering from his latest ACL tear during OTAs and couldn't participate in 11-on-11 drills leading up to training camp. Tagovailoa earned valuable reps with the first-team offense and has gotten a leg up in impressing new head coach Kevin Stefanski.

Assuming Penix participates in most of training camp and manages to edge out Tagovailoa for Week 1, he'll still likely have the league's shortest leash. He'll need to make a massive jump over the lackluster production he displayed as a sophomore—Penix completed a meager 60.1 percent of his throws for 1,982 yards and nine touchdowns in nine starts prior to the injury—and show he can lift the ceiling on Atlanta's offense to have a chance at retaining the job.

With elite skill position players such as Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts surrounding him, Penix has the tools in place to thrive in Year 3. Anything less will be considered a failure and likely spells the end to his time as the starter in Atlanta.