Over-Under Win Predictions For Every NFL Team In 2026

Now that NFL rosters have largely taken the shape they'll carry into the 2026 campaign, and with training camps getting underway across the country, this is a good opportunity to start speculating on future bets before camp and preseason action begin to shift odds in various directions.

After all, the earlier you act, the better the value.

With that in mind, let's look at DraftKings' team-by-team win totals for 2026, home in on each team's line that is closest to even odds, and predict whether that squad wins more (over) or fewer (under) games than that number in the upcoming campaign. 

Strength of schedule information for 2025 via ESPN's Power Index, for 2026 via Sharp Football Analysis. Adjusted Games Lost due to injury courtesy of FTN.

Arizona Cardinals: Over 3.5 (-130)

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Mike LaFleur

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

The Cardinals won just three games last season, but that deserves some caveats. Arizona was absolutely annihilated by injuries and had the most difficult schedule in the NFC. 

Yes, Kyler Murray is gone, but he wasn't a major factor in 2025 anyway. And now, they've added Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jeremiyah Love to a talented young group of skill-position players. 

Keep in mind, the Cards won eight games in 2024 before it all hit the fan last year. I expect this team to get a nice boost from a fresh coaching staff and at least make a push toward a handful of wins in 2026. 

Atlanta Falcons: Over 6.5 (-136) 

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Kevin Stefanski

Bet Confidence Level: High

The Falcons have managed to win seven-plus games in each of their last five seasons, and now they could also benefit from fresh faces in the front office, the coaching staff and at quarterback. 

At the very least, they'll have competition with Tua Tagovailoa joining Michael Penix Jr. under the tutelage of Kevin Stefanski. And those guys are quite well supported at the skill positions as well as along the offensive line. 

This isn't a great team, but it certainly has the talent to once again remain within reaching distance of .500 in the worst division in the NFL. 

Baltimore Ravens: Under 11.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Trey Hendrickson

Bet Confidence Level: Low

An eight-win 2025 campaign was likely an anomaly for a Ravens team that was out of sorts from the get-go and dealt with some killer injuries. A five-game midseason winning streak was revealing, and I'd expect them to get back to prime contender status in 2026. 

Baltimore did win 25 games in 2023 and 2024 combined. That being said, getting back into that dozen-win range is never a lock, and a new coaching staff is a variable we can't fully account for as they get away from the storied John Harbaugh era. 

The core remains generally in place, but I do worry about Lamar Jackson's durability, especially without Tyler Linderbaum, and I'm not sure a 31-year-old Trey Hendrickson can fix a defense that struggled to make impact plays in 2025. 

This is close to a toss-up, but the over is too risky. 

Buffalo Bills: Over 10.5 (-120) 

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Joe Brady

Bet Confidence Level: High

Promoting Joe Brady to replace Sean McDermott might not have been the shakeup many Bills fans had hoped for after another playoff failure in 2025, but it does probably keep the floor high for a Buffalo team led by the best quarterback in the sport right now. 

Josh Allen now has D.J. Moore to work with at receiver, which should improve the offense overall. That unit alone should pave the way for another contender campaign for a team that has won at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons. 

The schedule isn't tough anyway, and I'd expect regression to the mean for the defense in a new system after it was crushed by injuries last season. 

Carolina Panthers: Under 7.5 (-136)

AP Photo/Scott Kinser

Bryce Young

Bet Confidence Level: Low

The Panthers managed to win the NFC South with an 8-9 record last season, but they did so despite the fact the offense ranked 27th in scoring—resulting in a minus-69 scoring margin on the season. 

Carolina wasn't dealt a bad hand when it came to the schedule or injuries in 2025, but it is projected to have the second-toughest sked in the NFC in 2026. 

And the defense does look like more of an asset than a liability, but I still don't trust quarterback Bryce Young behind an offensive line that will at the very least lack continuity to start the 2026 campaign. 

I could see the Panthers winning seven or eight, but all things considered, I think they're more likely to win six or seven in the improving NFC South. 

Chicago Bears: Over 9.5 (+100)

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Caleb Williams

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

Let me get this straight: The Bears go 11-6 in Ben Johnson's first season with Caleb Williams, ranking in the top 10 in football with 25.9 points per game and winning the tough NFC North despite the defense being smashed by injuries...and they're only projected to win nine or 10 games in 2026?

I fully expect Williams to continue to improve in his third season after he put up 27 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions as a sophomore under Johnson, and Dennis Allen should get more out of the defense if the law of averages helps out with the health of a high-impact unit.

The competition in that division is reason for some caution, but this team is on an upward trajectory and should be a safe bet for double-digit victories again in 2026. 

Cincinnati Bengals: Under 10.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Joe Burrow

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

This feels a bit like a "fool me once" situation. We know the Bengals have the talent, especially offensively, but this is a purported contender that has fallen short of double-digit wins in three consecutive seasons. 

There's always an excuse. Quarterback Joe Burrow has missed significant time in two of those three campaigns. The defense was poor in 2024 and 2025. Tough luck in close games. 

But can we trust Burrow to remain on the field? Is that defense suddenly respectable by swapping out Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai for Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe? And at what point can we point a finger at the coaching staff for those close-game misfortunes? 

This is a top-heavy roster that still faces major questions in a potentially stacked division, and I'm not sure Zac Taylor is the man for the job considering all of the underachieving he's overseen the last few years. 

The Bengals absolutely could get hot again and win 12-plus games in 2026, but I think they're a lot more likely to bomb once again. They won't have a chance to fool me four times. 

Cleveland Browns: Over 5.5 (-130)

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Todd Monken

Bet Confidence Level: Low

The Browns continue to be a wild card when it comes to projecting win totals. We don't have a feel for how they'll look under Todd Monken offensively or Mike Rutenberg defensively, we don't know who'll get most of the work at quarterback, and we have no idea how the team will respond to Myles Garrett's departure.

That trade could be perceived as a move tantamount to throwing in the towel for 2026, but 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse now teams up with 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger. That's exciting, as is the fact the new staff will have several interesting quarterbacks to choose from as Deshaun Watson returns from injury. 

Whoever wins that battle will have two shiny new rookie receivers and a first-round rookie left tackle to work with. 

All of that screams "this will take time," but don't be surprised if a rejuvenated squad with nothing to lose takes advantage of a soft schedule and squeaks out half a dozen wins. 

Dallas Cowboys: Under 9.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Gareth Patterson

Dak Prescott

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

Dak Prescott in odd-numbered years since 2019: 1 game missed, 68% completion rate, 133 TD, 40 INT, 7.7 YPA, 102.3 passer rating. 

Prescott in even-numbered years since 2019: 25 games missed, 66% completion rate, 43 TD, 27 INT, 7.4 YPA, 91.6 passer rating. 

The soon-to-be 33-year-old is coming off a strong odd-numbered year, and yet Dallas won just seven games thanks primarily to the fact that the defense underperformed. And while that unit improved in free agency and the draft, it will still take time for everything to come together under incoming coordinator Christian Parker. 

Regardless, even if the D makes headway, I don't trust Prescott to keep the offense on top. The Cowboys might improve on back-to-back seven-win campaigns, but there's no way I'm betting on a sudden double-digit-victory season.

Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 (-115)

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Bo Nix

Bet Confidence Level: High

Oddsmakers are surprisingly bearish on the Broncos, but I'm quite confident in a team that is led by a legendary head coach, features a mega-talented third-year quarterback behind the best offensive line in the NFL, and is backed by arguably the best defense in the league. 

Throw in that the offense should get jolts from new coordinator Davis Webb's promotion as well as the addition of Jaylen Waddle, and this over is an absolute no-brainer. 

The Broncos beat this number when Bo Nix was a rookie in 2024. They blew it out of the water with a 14-3 2025 campaign. Why would we expect a sudden 9-8 or worse showing in 2026?

This team is far too solid to bet against winning 10-plus games. Right now, I'd even lock them in at +285 to go over 11.5 wins. 

Detroit Lions: Over 10.5 (-115)

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Dan Campbell

Bet Confidence Level: High

The extremely talented Lions had the seventh-toughest schedule in the NFL during a grueling 2025 season that saw the defense get ripped apart by injuries, but they still managed to go 9-8. 

Now, they're projected to enjoy the easiest schedule in the league. 

Regression to the mean is likely to bolster the defense from a health perspective, but even without that I'd project 11-plus wins for a team that remains jacked and won a league-best 27 games in 2023 and 2024 combined. 

Let's not overthink this one.

Green Bay Packers: Under 9.5 (+110)

AP Photo/Kayla Wolf

Jordan Love

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

I'm confident that the Packers will remain in the picture once again in 2026, but in the NFC North the Lions and Bears are simply a step ahead of a team that might not have defensive star Micah Parsons for a significant portion of the season. 

The floor is high because of what they have in Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, but Green Bay has actually won more than nine games just once in Love's tenure as starter. It's still tough to tell who his No. 1 receiver will be, and the offensive line struggled in pass protection last season before undergoing changes that aren't guaranteed to fix the problem but will cost them continuity. 

That combined with the fact Parsons seems far from confident he'll return early on from a torn ACL has me eyeing the under here. 

Houston Texans: Over 9.5 (-125)

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

C.J. Stroud

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

This total speaks—somewhat understandably—to the lack of trust folks have in C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense. But this is a team that won 12 games despite Stroud's struggles in 2025 and continues to be anchored by a dominant defense. 

To boot, the Texans have found a way to win double-digit games in each of DeMeco Ryans' three seasons as head coach. 

Putting up 12 wins again won't be easy considering improvements to the rest of the AFC South, but the Texans have made significant changes to an offensive line that has been a liability for years, and Stroud and Co. could get a boost from the long-awaited return of receiver Tank Dell. 

I think they're good for 10-7 or better. 

Indianapolis Colts: Under 7.5 (+115)

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Daniel Jones

Bet Confidence Level: Low

The Colts have won eight or nine games in three consecutive seasons, but I get the sense that streak is more likely to end with a dip than a leap in 2026. 

That starts with the fact I don't trust quarterback Daniel Jones when healthy, let alone when he's coming back from an offseason spoiled by a torn Achilles tendon. Jones shocked the league early last year before falling off a cliff. The 29-year-old put up an 84.2 passer rating as the Colts went 1-4 in his final five starts as part of a 1-8 run from the start of November onward. 

That's an awful trajectory entering 2026, especially with Houston and Jacksonville looking strong and Tennessee likely to be better in that division. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 8.5 (-140)

AP Photo/John Raoux, File

Trevor Lawrence

Bet Confidence Level: High

Meanwhile, trajectory is working entirely in the favor of one of Indy's primary division rivals. 

That's because it appears super-talented former top pick Trevor Lawrence finally hit a groove with first-year head coach Liam Coen in 2025, posting 15 touchdown passes to one interception and a 113.2 passer rating in his last six games as the Jaguars went 8-0 to conclude the regular season.

The Jags did benefit from a soft schedule during that particular run, but that doesn't entirely erase the fact they went 13-4 and put up the fourth-best scoring margin in the NFL as both the offense and defense ranked in the top 10 in scoring. 

Could they regress a bit with a slightly tougher schedule and a bigger target on their back? Sure, but I'd expect that to be balanced out to an extent by continued progress from Lawrence and Coen as they build on that first year together. 

Nine wins shouldn't be much of a challenge. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Under 10.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Patrick Mahomes

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

I just can't do it. It's scary to keep doubting the Chiefs considering their mystique, but this is a franchise desperately clinging to what's left of its dynasty. The roster is old and in recent years Patrick Mahomes hasn't been remotely the same quarterback he was during his epic initial five seasons as an NFL starter. 

As noted, we're high on Denver. The Chargers should be good, too, and the rebuilding Raiders could be more of a handful than many expect in a nothing-to-lose season. 

Consider that Kansas City was a six-win team last year despite the fact the defense was the healthiest unit in football in terms of adjusted games lost. And now, a 30-year-old Mahomes is a question mark this summer as he recovers from a torn ACL/LCL. 

This scoring offense hasn't ranked higher than 15th since 2022, and the defense is more likely to fall than rise in 2026. 

It could get ugly. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Under 5.5 (+120)

AP Photo/John Locher

Klint Kubiak

Bet Confidence Level: Low 

I really want to take the over here. I feel good about the Raiders, and they have a lot of reasons to be excited and optimistic about their trajectory. 

A new coaching staff and two new quarterbacks—one experienced vet and one high-upside top pick—should help, and elite defender Maxx Crosby remains on the roster for now as well. 

All that said, they'll once again face a tough road with a difficult schedule in that division, and this is a team that has won seven total games the last two seasons. They went 3-14 despite remaining relatively healthy in 2025, and there will almost certainly be growing pains in 2026. 

Los Angeles Chargers: Over 9.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

In classic Bolts fashion, this team was hit pretty hard across the board by injuries in 2025. Yet they still won 11 games as Justin Herbert battled without his pillar tackles for pretty much the entire season (marking their second consecutive 11-6 campaign under Jim Harbaugh). 

Now, with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy and Mike McDaniel involved in the offense, there's little reason to believe they won't once again be in the mix atop the AFC West. 

This team has always been somewhat of a wild card, but double-digit wins seems extremely likely with Harbaugh, McDaniel and Herbert at the helm of the offense. 

Los Angeles Rams: Under 11.5 (+105)

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Myles Garrett

Bet Confidence Level: Low

They're tempting you to jump on the over here. Don't bite. 

Yes, there's a chance everything comes together for this quasi-super team in 2026, but the hype is dangerous. Keep in mind the Rams only won 12 games last season despite the fact that quarterback Matthew Stafford had a career year as MVP.

And while adding Myles Garrett might be huge, that could be a buy-high scenario that doesn't amount to a ton of extra wins considering they gave up a strong young player in Jared Verse. 

The defense does look improved overall, but that unit underwent significant offseason change. They didn't really do much to improve the 2026 version of the team in this year's draft, and they'd be in big trouble if Stafford, Davante Adams or Puka Nacua were to hit a wall or suffer an injury in that stacked division. That's scary considering that Stafford and Adams are 38 and 33, respectively, and that Nacua spent time in rehab this offseason. 

The under appears to be a bold bet here, but that's what the books want you to think.

Miami Dolphins: Under 4.5 (-146)

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Malik Willis

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

Last year, the Dolphins won seven games with the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL. This year, as they climb deeper into a rebuild, they face the second-toughest sked in the league. 

Maybe they'll have better injury luck after leading the AFC in adjusted games lost in 2025, and maybe Malik Willis and a coaching staff will energize the franchise, but that's a lot of change. And the support for Willis doesn't inspire a lot of confidence as the post-Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle era kicks off in South Florida. 

For now, this profiles as one of the weakest rosters in the league, and the road back to contention looks steep.

Minnesota Vikings: Over 8.5 (-110)

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Kyler Murray

Bet Confidence Level: Low

I wouldn't touch this either way with a 10-foot pole. 

There's too much mystery surrounding the quarterback situation in Minnesota. I'm rolling with a low-confidence over because this is a squad that managed to win nine games with the worst passer rating in the conference and a gauntlet of a schedule in 2025, but that could easily backfire if Kyler Murray can't stay healthy and get into a groove. 

Another extended run with J.J. McCarthy doesn't bode well, and it's worth noting that the Vikes had the fourth-healthiest defense in the league last year. The law of averages could easily bite them in their strongest area in 2026. 

This talented team could explode, but it could just as easily implode. 

New England Patriots: Under 10.5 (-140)

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Drake Maye

Bet Confidence Level: High

While I like the aggressiveness associated with bringing in A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to bolster Drake Maye's supporting cast, I just think the Patriots are in a bad spot here. 

Reeling to an extent from a distracting offseason and facing a potential post-Super Bowl hangover, a team that had the best injury luck in the NFL and faced easily the softest schedule in the league last year will have a target on its back throughout the 2026 campaign. 

Maye can't sneak up on anyone this time, and there's a good chance he'll face more challenges when it comes to competition and roster health. 

I also have concerns about how they'll adapt to personnel changes offensively. 

New Orleans Saints: Under 7.5 (+100)

AP Photo/Matthew Hinton

Tyler Shough

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

This might seem odd considering that the Saints appear to be ascending after winning four of their last five games with potential franchise quarterback Tyler Shough last year. But this remains a work in progress, and New Orleans goes from having the second-easiest schedule in the NFL to having the second-toughest sked in the league. 

Shough is still far from a lock to become the guy, the offensive line still looks like more of a liability than an asset, and the defense might have played above its head in 2025. 

Even in a wide-open division, going 8-9 or better will not be easy.

New York Giants: Over 7.5 (-110)

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Jaxson Dart

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

I'm extremely high on the 2026 Giants. 

Jaxson Dart registered 24 combined passing/rushing touchdowns to five interceptions as a first-round rookie in 2025 and appears to be on track to take the reins as the franchise quarterback. 

He'll now be coached by John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy, who bring considerable know-how and experience to this rising team. The offensive line should be better with top pick Francis Mauigoa on board, Dart now has vet Isaiah Likely as a safety valve, and he's getting Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo back from injury. 

If that core can put it all together, a Giants team with several elite talents on defense should keep the momentum going after scoring 68 points in back-to-back wins to conclude 2025 with a run into or above the .500 range in 2026. 

New York Jets: Under 5.5 (+100)

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Geno Smith

Bet Confidence Level: High

This was a three-win team that ranked in the bottom four offensively and defensively in 2025. Geno Smith is highly unlikely to fix that, as he should probably be a backup at this stage of his career. 

The 2026 schedule looks forgiving, but that was also the case last year and they won three games by a grand total of 11 points while posting the worst scoring margin (-203) in football. 

I do like what they're doing with the offensive line, and there are some young weapons on both sides of the ball worth getting excited about. But this will take time. 

Expect them to win a handful of games or fewer for the eighth time in the last 11 years.

Philadelphia Eagles: Over 10.5 (+115)

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Nick Sirianni

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

The veteran Eagles have averaged 12.5 victories per season the last four years, winning at least 11 in each of them. I understand some trepidation considering significant offseason turnover in terms of the offensive coaching staff and personnel, but the core remains in place under Nick Sirianni. 

The schedule is softer than you might expect, and you just know these guys will be in the thick of things come December and January. 

I also believe they needed an offensive shakeup, and that Sean Mannion and Makai Lemon could bring a fresh feel to that unit. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 (+110)

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Aaron Rodgers

Bet Confidence Level: Low

Eventually, the Steelers will suffer their first losing season since 2003. 

And while I don't view Pittsburgh as a Super Bowl contender, the presence of Aaron Rodgers and all of that talent on defense as well as along the offensive line is enough for a conservative bet on a 23rd consecutive non-losing season for this veteran squad. 

After all, they went 10-7 without doing anything especially remarkable in 2025. 

That said, we're going low-confidence on this one because there is a real chance this team underperforms expectations, given how heavily it is relying on a 42‑year‑old quarterback whose play has not been at an elite level in recent seasons and a veteran head coach in Mike McCarthy returning for another stint.

San Francisco 49ers: Over 9.5 (-146)

AP Photo/John Froschauer

Kyle Shanahan

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

The 49ers can't possibly continue to suffer such horrible fortune when it comes to injuries, right? I mean, at this point, it feels like there's more to it than luck. Still, these things tend to regress to the mean over time and they're very due for a healthy season.

That said, even in a very unhealthy season last year, this extremely talented and well-coached veteran squad went 12-5, remaining in a tight race for a tough division crown with the Rams and Seahawks until the end. 

The very presence of L.A. and Seattle helps explain why this number is hanging below the double-digit plateau, but the Niners actually have a much easier schedule than those two juggernaut division rivals. 

Look for them to win 10-plus games for the sixth time in an eight-year span under Shanahan. 

Seattle Seahawks: Under 10.5 (-105)

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Sam Darnold

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

You know what scares me? The fact the Seahawks got away with committing a second-to-league-high 28 turnovers during the 2025 regular season. 

The Sam Darnold story is awesome, but the Seahawks suffered several big personnel blows in the wake of their Super Bowl LX victory. And now, everyone including those terrifying NFC West rivals will be hunting them down. 

There's no time to be hungover, no time to adapt to life without departed offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, or to a new-look backfield, or to the losses of Coby Bryant and Boye Mafe on D. 

This team is still damn talented, but they'll face a lot of pressure in 2026 and I think their mistakes could bite them in the behind this time around. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 8.5 (-136) 

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Baker Mayfield

Bet Confidence Level: High

Are the Bucs crashing? A team slowly transitioning from contender status to a rebuild lost seven of its last nine games in 2025, finishing out of the playoffs despite playing the league's sixth-easiest schedule in a soft division. 

The schedule gets tougher this year, and I'm not convinced hiring Zac Robinson from Atlanta to run the offense will be enough to change their trajectory. Baker Mayfield has been turnover-prone and may have limited remaining upside at this stage of his career, and the Mike Evans era is now over.

The Bucs used to at least be the steady presence in the NFC South, but they clearly have the least upside in the division. They may be better than what we saw late in 2025, but nine wins is pushing it for a fading franchise that has averaged a mere 8.8 victories the last four years. 

Tennessee Titans: Under 6.5 (-115)

AP Photo/John Amis

Cam Ward

Bet Confidence Level: High

I get it. Top pick Cam Ward flashed late as the Titans went a respectable 2-3 in December and January last season. But this is still very much a rebuild, and this is a lousy overall roster with a still-unproven quarterback. 

A very difficult schedule in 2025 becomes much more manageable in 2026, but I'm not about to project that the Titans will more than double their win total from three last season to seven-plus just like that. 

The offensive line is still a question mark for Ward, who may need time in a new offense with a rookie receiver in Carnell Tate. Meanwhile, not enough has been done yet to turn last year's 28th-ranked scoring defense into an asset. 

This team is going through a lot of changes. They're on the right track, but this will take time. 

Washington Commanders: Over 7.5 (-125)

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Jayden Daniels

Bet Confidence Level: Moderate

The Commanders were hammered by injuries on both sides of the ball last year, so it's unfair to judge them entirely on that 5-12 result. This is a team that went to the NFC Championship Game while powered by the league's fifth-highest-scoring offense in 2024. 

That season's Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, had a lot to do with that. He was lost for all but seven games in 2025. But Daniels is healthy now, his line should be strong, and running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a prime breakout candidate for a team that was at least very proactive about overhauling a problematic defense this offseason. 

I have to imagine they'll rejoin the wild-card picture with better injury luck in 2026.