MLB Home Run Derby 2026 Odds and Score Predictions for Full Bracket

Believe it or not, the 2026 MLB All-Star Week is upon us. The All-Star game itself is scheduled for Tuesday evening, but the festivities will begin with Monday's Home-Run Derby.

This year's eight-player field, headlined by local favorites Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, should provide fans with plenty of excitement as they try to rocket balls out of Citizens Bank Park. Harper will look to become the first Derby champion to win it in his home park since he accomplished that very feat as a member of the Washington Nationals.

And while the Derby will be plenty familiar to most fans, it will feature a few changes—including a major shift in broadcasting coverage.

Here's a look at what's ahead for Monday, including odds, viewing info, and some predictions.

2026 Home Run Derby

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When: Monday, July 13

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia

Prize Pool: $2.5 million ($1 million to winner)

Live Stream: Netflix

Home Run Derby Odds

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Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber +340 (bet $100 to win $340)

Munetaka Murakami +470

Junior Caminero +480

Jordan Walker +600

Jac Caglianone +650

Bryce Harper +850

Ben Rice +900

Willson Contreras +1100

*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

Preview and Predictions

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Junior Caminero

As previously noted, this year's Home Run Derby will feature a new bracket format. Previously, each competitor had either three minutes or 40 pitches to hit as many home runs as possible during the first round.

This year, however, MLB is moving toward a purely swing-based competition, with a different limit set for each round.

From MLB.com:

"Eight players will still make up the field, same as in years past. But instead of trying to hit as many homers as they can during timed rounds, participants will start each round with a finite number of swings: 20 in Round 1, 15 in Round 2 and 15 again in the final round.

"All swings will count against a player's swing allotment, whether it results in a homer or not. However, a player who homers on his final swing of a round can keep swinging until he doesn't hit one out."

As was the case previously, the top four scorers in Round 1 will advance to the second round, which will feature head-to-head competition and seeding based on first-round scores. The winners of Round 2 will advance to the finals, and all ties during the head-to-head rounds will be settled by three-swing swing-offs.

Home-run distance will be used to break any ties during the initial open round.

A year ago, Cal Raleigh needed that distance tiebreaker to emerge from the opening round, and he got it by a narrow margin over Brent Rooker (470.62 feet to 470.54 feet). He then went on to win the entire bracket, out-pacing Junior Caminero, 18-15, in the final round and hitting 54 home runs in total.

Raleigh won't be back for this year's Derby, but Caminero (28 HRs entering the weekend) will and should be considered a legitimate threat. Schwarber is the favorite, though, and not just because the Philadelphia Phillies star should have some crowd support. Last season's NL home run leader (56) has the contact rate and the power to potentially run away with the competition.

Caminero and Schwarber will face stiff competition from Munetaka Murakami. Before missing time with a hamstring strain, the Chicago White Sox phenom set an MLB rookie record by hitting 20 homers before the month of June.

Harper, of course, should also be a threat, given his familiarity with the park and experience in the Derby.

St. Louis Cardinals star Jordan Walker (22 HRs entering the weekend), Kansas City Royals standout Jac Caglianone (15),New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice (29), and Willson Contreras (20) of the Boston Red Sox will round out the field.

Fans should expect a stiff competition with tiebreakers potentially deciding who gets out of the first round again. They should also expect lower overall home-run numbers due to the swing limit, though the last-pitch could lead to some extended bonus home-run streaks.

The prediction here is that Schwarber, Caminero, Murakami, and Harper emerge from the opening round with Murakami and Schwarber facing off in an epic final battle.

Prediction: Murakami wins with 36 total home runs