5 Under-the-Radar MVP Candidates for the 2026 NFL Season

The early DraftKings odds appear to indicate the 2026 NFL MVP race might come down to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, which makes sense considering they are perennial contenders for the award. 

Also in the mix? Two-time winner Patrick Mahomes, reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, 2025 runner-up Drake Maye, and popular frequent candidates Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. 

They are joined by Caleb Williams and Jordan Love as the only players with odds of +1500 or better, per DraftKings on June 19. The rest of the league is at +2000 or worse, which makes anyone else a definitive underdog. 

Here are five quarterbacks lurking in or beyond that next tier who could make surprise MVP charges in 2026.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

AP Photo/John Raoux, File

Trevor Lawrence

Current Odds: +2200

Why It's a Long Shot

The 26-year-old has been a Pro Bowler just once in five seasons and has never come close to earning first- or second-team All-Pro honors. He's never had a 30-touchdown-pass campaign, and he's lacked consistency for the vast majority of his career. 

Why It Could Happen

Lawrence certainly has the talent as a No. 1 overall pick who should only be entering his prime, and he seemed to finally find a sustained groove in Liam Coen's new offense last season.

The Clemson product threw 15 touchdowns to just one interception with a 113.2 passer rating over his final six games, as the Jaguars ran the table in the second half of the 2025 season. The momentum is there. 

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Sam Darnold

Current Odds: +2800

Why It's a Long Shot

A journeyman until recently, Darnold was among the league leaders in turnovers last season. He also faces an incredibly high bar after Seattle's Super Bowl LX win in the 2025 season, and he's working with yet another new play-caller following Klint Kubiak's departure.

Why It Could Happen

Still only 29 and with limited mileage, Darnold could be building up toward his best season yet. He's got plenty of support on both sides of the ball, and his confidence level could be sky-high coming off that Super Bowl run. The ingredients are there for a former top-three pick. 

Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix

AP Photo/Jack Dempsey

Bo Nix

Current Odds: +3500

Why It's a Long Shot

Like Lawrence, Nix will be competing with the likes of Allen, Jackson and Mahomes in the AFC. In fact, the top six MVP odds belong to AFC quarterbacks.

The 2024 No. 12 overall pick is also looking to bounce back from a minor sophomore slump statistically, with his efficiency slipping into the middle of the pack among qualified passers in 2025.

Plus, he's working his way back from a second ankle surgery this offseason, a follow-up procedure to address bone spurs.

Why It Could Happen

Word is he'll be a full go at training camp, and Year 3 is often a big leap season for an NFL quarterback.

The 26-year-old should benefit from even more time in Sean Payton's system, with some potential new energy from Davis Webb at OC.

And with a jacked offensive line, a world-class defense and the arrival of veteran wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, Nix has optimal support. 

Minnesota Vikings QB Kyler Murray

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Kyler Murray

Current Odds: +4000

Why It's a Long Shot

Murray—who still has to fend off J.J. McCarthy—was a Pro Bowler in 2020 and 2021 but hasn't been near an All-Pro conversation since.

The 28-year-old has missed a large portion of three of his last four seasons and was kicked to the curb by the Cardinals after a disappointing seven-year tenure. 

Why It Could Happen

That was Arizona. This is Minnesota, where he'll have a superior offensive line and will be throwing to arguably the NFL's best receiver in Justin Jefferson.

A new setting under Kevin O'Connell could enable the 2019 No. 1 overall pick to finally live up to his unique and considerable talent in his age-29 season. 

New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Jaxson Dart

Current Odds: +4500

Why It's a Long Shot

Dart has just 12 career starts under his belt, making a sophomore slump just as much of a likelihood as a breakout campaign for the 23-year-old.

There's also still plenty of uncertainty surrounding an offense in flux under a new coaching staff. 

Why It Could Happen

That staff—led by John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy—could pave the way for Dart to take his game to the next level.

His line should be better with top pick Francis Mauigoa on board, he's now got Isaiah Likely as a safety valve, and he's getting Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo back from injury.

If that core can put it all together in a surprise playoff season for the G-Men, and Dart can consistently make some of the superhero plays we saw from him in 2025, anything is possible.