World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Award Odds and Predictions for the Favorites

Some of the most prolific goal-scorers in world soccer history will participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe have 25 World Cup goals between them. Both superstars have Miroslav Klose's all-time World Cup scoring record of 16 goals within their sights.

Mbappe beat out Messi by one goal for the Golden Boot four years ago. That was a consolation prize for him because France lost the final to Messi and Argentina.

Harry Kane is one of two other former Golden Boot winners competing in North America. Colombia's James Rodriguez is the other.

Messi, Mbappe and Kane have starred at multiple World Cups already in their careers.

Erling Haaland has been a star at the club level for his entire career, but now he gets a chance to play at the World Cup with Norway. Haaland is alongside Messi, Mbappe and Kane at the top of the favorites list to win the Golden Boot.

Golden Boot Odds

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kylian Mbappe (+600; bet $100 to win $600)

Harry Kane (+700)

Erling Haaland (+1400)

Mikel Oyarzabal (+1400)

Lionel Messi (+1600)

Lamine Yamal (+2000)

Cristiano Ronaldo (+2200)

Julian Alvarez (+3000)

Raphinha (+3000)

Lautaro Martinez (+3000)

Vinicius Junior (+3000)

Michael Olise (+3000)

Ousmane Dembele (+3000)

Kylian Mbappe

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Kylian Mbappe is the reigning Golden Boot winner.

Mbappe netted eight goals, including a hat-trick in the final, in Qatar four years ago.

The 27-year-old has 11 total goals on the World Cup stage. Five of those tallies have come against Argentina in 2018 and 2022.

Mbappe has a tougher group stage than other Golden Boot favorites. Senegal is a tricky matchup for France and Norway could pose a challenge with Erling Haaland up top.

A bulk of Mbappe's group-stage goals will probably come against Iraq, the weakest team in Group I.

If France wins Group I, a third-place team faces Les Bleus in the round of 32. That's an ideal matchup for Mbappe.

However, France could face Germany in the round of 16. An early exit would be damaging to Mbappe's chances to repeat as Golden Boot winner.

Any additional knockout-round matches will be tough after Germany, but it is worth noting Mbappe has six knockout-round goals in his World Cup career.

It's easy to expect Mbappe will score at least two or three goals, but scoring eight for the second straight tournament is a little much to ask. After all, only two Golden Boot winners scored eight goals since 1974.

Prediction: Mbappe scores 4 goals

Harry Kane

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Harry Kane is eight years removed from his Golden Boot in Russia.

The Englishman hasn't stopped scoring in his career, and in fact, he's coming off a career year at Bayern Munich in which he netted 36 Bundesliga goals.

Kane will more than likely be England's primary goal scorer on an expected deep run in the tournament.

Kane's biggest opportunity to score in the group stage comes on Matchday 3 against Panama. Kane had a hat-trick against the North American side during his Golden Boot run in 2018.

England will face a third-place team in the round of 32, if it wins Group L. Then the Three Lions would potentially face Mexico in the round of 16. That would be a tough game in Mexico City, but it would be easier compared to the potential opponents Mbappe and others are lined up to have.

A four-or-five-goal tournament with at least one multi-goal performance is the expectation for Kane. It's high, but that's the standard he's set throughout his career.

Prediction: Harry Kane scores 5 goals.

Lionel Messi

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Lionel Messi is the highest-scoring player at a World Cup competing in the 2026 tournament.

The Argentinian legend is three goals off Miroslav Klose's record of 16 World Cup goals.

Messi could tie that record in the group stage alone versus Algeria, Austria and Jordan.

The Matchday 3 contest with Jordan is the easiest group-stage match for Argentina, but there's potential for rest if the Albiceleste have Group J either wrapped up or in control.

If Argentina wins Group J, it wouldn't see another group winner until the quarterfinals at the earliest. A potentially tricky round-of-32 game against Uruguay could happen, but Argentina would be favored by a good amount in both of its first two knockout-round contests.

The path is there for Messi to at least tie, or break, Klose's World Cup scoring record.

If Argentina goes deep into the knockout round, Messi could set a new record and win the Golden Boot as well.

Prediction: Messi scores 6 goals