6 Players Most Likely to win 2026 Defensive ROY Award

Now that the draft is done, key NFL awards odds are out there on futures markets.

And one intriguing battle appears to be shaping up among defensive rookies. 

Six particular first-round picks look to be in the mix for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and all have odds well below +1000 before a big drop-off to the rest of the pack. 

Let's break it down.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Jets Edge David Bailey

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

David Bailey

Odds: +500

Why it Could Happen

Bailey was the highest-drafted defensive rookie, going No. 2 overall behind quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He put up 14.5 sacks last season at Texas Tech but was also a solid producer in his previous three years at Stanford (forcing five fumbles in 2024).

And the path is there for him to be an immediate high-volume contributor to a pass-rushing corps that had just one five-sack guy in 2025. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

The Jets did also add Joseph Ossai via a $34.5 million contract in free agency, and former first-round pick Will McDonald IV had eight sacks last season. So it's not as though there will be zero competition for reps.

Bailey is also a tad undersized and could experience some growing pains adjusting to the NFL game on the edge. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Edge Rueben Bain Jr.

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Rueben Bain Jr.

Odds: +500

Why it Could Happen

The brief Haason Reddick era appears to be over in Tampa, leaving Bain as the clear-cut candidate to start opposite YaYa Diaby for a Bucs defense that could use his presence as a pass-rushing threat.

The No. 15 overall pick was considered by many to be a top-10 talent, and he has an NFL-ready body. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

Diaby fills the McDonald role for him, while the Bucs brought in Al-Quadin Muhammad to essentially serve as his Ossai.

Neither is considered to be on the same level of those Jets counterparts, which could mean more opportunities for Bain but could also mean a lot more focus from opposing defenses.

We've also heard plenty about his short arms.

New York Giants LB Arvell Reese

AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

Arvell Reese

Odds: +650

Why it Could Happen

Quite possibly the most physically gifted player in this draft class, the No. 5 overall pick out of Ohio State has the skill set to make an immediate impact across the board with the Giants.

His path and toolkit somewhat resemble that of Micah Parsons, who won the award with the Cowboys in 2021, and he's already been making waves at organized team activities. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

He'll only turn 21 in August, and it's possible he'll fall victim early on to being a jack of many trades but master of none.

Reese is a strong run defender, but that doesn't lead to the glory stats and splash plays that result in shiny awards. He could make a high impact but still be somewhat limited as he figures things out alongside fellow recent first-rounders Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux.

With highly-paid veteran Brian Burns also on the edge, there's a lot going on there. 

Washington Commanders LB Sonny Styles

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Sonny Styles

Odds: +750

Why it Could Happen

The No. 7 overall pick can also do pretty much anything on the defensive side of the field, which is extremely rare considering he's 6'5" and 244 pounds.

He should benefit immediately from the guidance of Dan Quinn, who coached Parsons in that 2021 DROY campaign.

Styles has loads of big-game experience following a four-year run at Ohio State and is expected to start from the get-go alongside veteran pick-up Leo Chenal. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

Although Carson Schwesinger was an exception last season, pure edge-rushers win this award more often than not these days.

Washington also went out of its way to beef up the linebacker corps in free agency, which could make it hard for Styles to stay on the field if he has any early growing pains on a team that fancies itself a contender.

Kansas City Chiefs CB Mansoor Delane

AP Photo/Colin E. Braley

Mansoor Delane

Odds: +850

Why it Could Happen

The opportunities should be there for Delane to make a significant early impact in the spotlight because the high-profile Chiefs experienced substantial turnover in the secondary this offseason.

The No. 8 overall pick has the polish and skill set to play that big role early (he had four interceptions at Virginia Tech in 2024 and then was an All-American at LSU in 2025), and if he can make some splash plays on national television, he'll be in the mix. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

Just one cornerback has won DROY since 2018, and Sauce Gardner was out of this world when he accomplished that with the Jets in 2022.

The bar is extremely high in that respect, so simply delivering as a reliable press-man corner with Delane's physicality may not be enough.

And Kansas City does have depth at that position, so nothing is guaranteed to Delane. 

Dallas Cowboys S Caleb Downs

AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez

Caleb Downs

Odds: +850

Why it Could Happen

The spotlight could be even larger for Downs, who joins America's Team and a defense desperate for a hero following an abysmal 2025 showing. And the No. 11 overall pick has already exhibited leadership qualities while turning heads on the practice field.

The B/R NFL Scouting Dept. viewed Downs as the absolute top player in this draft class, and nobody will likely get in his way in the Dallas secondary in 2025. 

Potential Obstacle(s)

A safety hasn't won this award in 35 years. Yes, Downs will likely contribute outside of that position, but we've already mentioned that corners don't often win it either—and it would be an even more difficult case in the slot.

This Dallas defense would also have to become good, which isn't guaranteed considering that it ranked last in points allowed in 2025.