Final NFL Mock Draft Trends and Trade Scenarios from Top Experts Hours from 1st Pick

Draft day has arrived, NFL fans! Round 1 will commence in a matter of hours, and while everyone expects Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to be the first overall pick, there's plenty of uncertainty beginning at No. 2.

The ongoing debate about whether the New York Jets should take Ohio State's Arvell Reese or Texas Tech's  David Bailey still hasn't been settled—and there's no telling how the next few selections will unfold after New York is off the clock.

Draft experts have their opinions, though. Here, we'll dive into the latest mock drafts from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., The Ringer's Todd McShay, NFL Media's Bucky Brooks, ESPN's Peter Schrager, and NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah. We'll search for any intriguing late trends and potential trade scenarios as the hours tick down to the opening Round.

The 2026 NFL draft will officially get underway at 8 p.m. ET.

Has Bailey Become the Jets' Preferred Choice?

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

David Bailey

With Mendoza a virtual lock to be the Raiders' pick, the Jets currently hold the biggest mystery of the early first round.

"No one knows what the Jets will do," ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio recently wrote.

After a week or so as Reese looking like New York's preferred choice, however, the experts are coming back to Bailey.

The reason? While Reese may have the higher ceiling, Bailey is the more polished prospect, AKA, the "safe" pick. After a disaster of a 2025 campaign, the Jets and GM Darren Mougey really can't afford to miss at No. 2.

"I've had Bailey going to the Jets for the past month, and I have no further intel telling me any differently," Schrager wrote. "Ohio State's Arvell Reese is a great player, but I'm sticking with Bailey. New York needs his instant production (14.5 sacks last season) for its lackluster pass rush."

All five expert mocks we examined now have Bailey as the pick at No. 2.

Jeremiyah Love Could Be Pick No. 3, Possibly Via a Trade

Michael Miller/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images

Jeremiyah Love

Running backs rarely go in the top five of the NFL draft. However, Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love is a special talent who could become the highest-drafted back since Saquon Barkley was taken second overall in 2018.

Love was a top-five selection in all five mocks and even went third overall to the Arizona Cardinals in Schrager's mock.

"This could be a trade-down spot, and I believe Arizona is listening," Schrager wrote. "Teams like the Chiefs and Saints could have interest in getting into position to take Reese. But I also think the Cardinals could just take Love."

Schrager's analysis meshes with what we've heard in recent days. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Love won't fall past the seventh pick:

"Love is considered by many to be the best player in this class and could become the first running back drafted in the top five picks since the Giants selected Saquon Barkley No. 2 in 2018. There are some who believe he could go as high as No. 3 to Arizona and no lower than No. 7 to Washington."

Kiper mocked Love to the Tennessee Titans at No. 4, while McShay, Jeremiah, and Brooks paired him with the New York Giants at No. 5. Jeremiah also mocked a trade that saw Arizona trade down so that the New Orleans Saints could snag Reese at No. 3.

If the Cardinals are willing to trade down, though, No. 3 could indeed be the spot that teams looking to poach Love target.

The Browns Could Be Eager to Move Down

AP Photo/David Richard

Browns GM Andrew Berry

The Cleveland Browns are a potential wild card at No. 6. Cleveland has two glaring needs—at offensive tackle and wide receiver—and may look to address one of those positions with its first of two Round 1 selections.

However, Browns GM Andrew Berry may also look to draft down for the second straight year.

Kiper mocked a trade in which the Dallas Cowboys moved up to No. 6 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.

"Dallas and Cleveland each have two first-round picks coming into the draft, which gives those front offices some ability to maneuver. With an elite prospect still on the board, I have Cowboys owner Jerry Jones calling up Browns general manager Andrew Berry to try to make something happen."

While Kiper was the only one who mocked a trade at No. 6, McShay admitted that one could happen while mocking Alabama tackle Kadyn Proctor to Cleveland.

"I've heard the Browns-Proctor connection for months now," McShay wrote. "They might not take him here, but they should have an opportunity to trade back on Thursday night and take him at a better value."

Brooks paired the Browns with Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate, while Schrager and Jeremiah paired them with Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano. What will the Browns actually do? That may well depend on whether anyone is looking to move up.

Watch Out for The Rams

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Rams GM Les Snead

In recent years, the Los Angeles Rams had backed off of Les Snead's "F them picks" mantra. They've established a contender largely through smart drafting. However, with the Matthew Stafford window potentially closing, Snead and Co. may be falling into old habits.

Los Angeles, after all, did just trade a first-round pick and three other selections for cornerback Trent McDuffie.

This is part of the reason why the Rams could be the wild card of the first round. The other reason is the fact that L.A. has a pretty complete roster with no glaring needs. Snead could conceivably trade up, trade down, trade the pick for a player, or make a surprising selection with the 13th overall pick—which was acquired from the Atlanta Falcons in a 2025 draft-day deal.

Schrager, for example, projected a trade down that needed L.A. the 17th selection, the 118th pick, and a 2027 second-rounder—while the Detroit Lions moved up for Proctor.

McShay called for a true shocker, with the Rams simply snagging Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson with the 13th pick.

"I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I do believe Ty Simpson goes earlier than expected Thursday night, and I know the Rams think extremely highly of him," McShay wrote.

Jeremiah, Brooks, and Kiper, meanwhile, paired the Rams with USC receiver Makai Lemon.