NFL Draft 2026 Mock Projections, Updated Order, Odds and 1st-Round Predictions

The 2026 NFL draft is in just a few days, and while there's plenty of mystery left to unfold, we know how it's going to begin.

The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock, and barring the draft surprise of the decade, they'll be taking Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Beyond the first pick, we don't know exactly how things will unfold. However, we do know that the draft order has changed. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Cincinnati Bengals have agreed to trade the 10th overall pick to the New York Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.

We also know each team's biggest needs, have an idea of the odds, and have no shortage of late pre-draft buzz. Based on those factors, let's run through an updated first-round mock.

Updated 2026 First-Round Mock

AP Photo/AJ Mast

Indiana QB prospect Fernando Mendoza

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. Arizona Cardinals:  Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami

4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

5. New York Giants: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. New York Giants (from Cincinnati): Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

11. Miami Dolphins:  Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

12. Dallas Cowboys: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon, WR, USC

14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, OL, Penn State

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

17. Detroit Lions: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

18. Minnesota Vikings: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

19. Carolina Panthers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Orego

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay): Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Peter Woods, DL, Clemson

23. Philadelphia Eagles: T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

25. Chicago Bears: Keldric Faulk, DL, Auburn

26. Buffalo Bills: Kevin Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

27. San Francisco 49ers:  Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

28. Houston Texans: Christen Miller, DL, Georgia

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams): Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver): Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

31. New England Patriots: Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

32. Seattle Seahawks: Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M

Reese or Bailey at No. 2?

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Texas Tech Edge David Bailey

The draft essentially starts at No. 2, and there remains a debate about whether the New York Jets will take Ohio State linebacker/edge Arvell Reese or Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey.

According to ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith, Reese has become the consensus betting favorite for the pick. FanDuel Sportsbook no longer has odds for the first or second picks, suggesting that expectations for those two selections are set.

Reese, for what it's worth, has +210 odds (bet $100 to win $210) to be the third overall pick, while Bailey is the favorite at +150.

However, not everyone is sold that the upside of Reese will force New York's hand.

"This pick has come full circle," The Ringer's Todd McShay recently wrote. My early intel was Bailey to the Jets at no. 2 because he's the most proven pass rusher in the class. ...Now we're back to Bailey, and it's close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles."

If McShay's intel is accurate, insiders are backing Bailey, while Bettors are favoring Reese. We'll go with the more polished prospect in this mock, but the smoke surrounding the No. 2 pick may not be lifted until Thursday evening.

Who is WR1?

AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Ohio State WR prospect Carnell Tate

Another mystery entering draft week involves this year's receiver class, specifically, which wideout will be first off the board.

Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson is the top-ranked receiver on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board. However, an injury-plagued college career and a lingering hamstring injury that prevented him from working out earlier this offseason have muddled his draft stock.

However, Tyson showed that he's healthy during a private workout with teams on Friday, which has him trending upward.

"[He] seems to be rising right now," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said Saturday on SportsCenter (h/t Bleacher Report's Adam Wells).

However, Fowler also admitted that Ohio State's Carnell Tate is viewed as the "safe" receiver:

"Teams I've talked to believe that Carnell Tate is the safest wide receiver prospect. He's got the pedigree. He's got the route polish. He's not a route burner, but he's fast enough."

Ultimately, the first receiver off the board may be decided by the team that takes him.

The Cleveland Browns, for example, aren't really in a position to be gambling on an injury risk. They need an improved receiving corps with which to evaluate Shedeur Sanders and/or Dillon Gabriel. If they eventually pivot to the 2027 quarterback class, they'll want a dependable pass-catcher in the receiver room.

Tate feels like a strong pick or the Browns if they don't trade down from No. 6. According to FanDuel, he's also the favorite for the No. 6 spot at +250, with Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles (+390) and Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano (600) not far behind.

McShay, it's worth noting, recently mocked a trade that saw the Dallas Cowboys moving up for Reese at No. 6.