Examining NFL Draft 2026 Predictions for Top QBs in Mel Kiper Jr., Latest Expert Mocks

Quarterbacks are quite often the talk of the NFL draft cycle. However, this offseason has been a bit short on QB intrigue.

A year ago, Cam Ward was widely considered the top quarterback in the 2025 class, but there were questions about where prospects like Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, and Tyler Shough might go. This year, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is widely expected to be the first overall pick, with Alabama's Ty Simpson as the only other quarterback receiving first-round consideration.

Where might Simpson land? Where might the draft's other signal-callers end up getting drafted? Let's dive into some of the latest expert mocks and examine the predictions.

Mendoza Will Go No. 1 Overall

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Fernando Mendoza

While no draft selection is set until it's actually made, it'll be a massive surprise if the Las Vegas Raiders don't take Fernando Mendoza first overall. That's the expectation, and you're not likely to find a mock that has a different pick up top.

ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. made his stance on expectations perfectly clear as part of a collaborative mock that also involved Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, and Field Yates:

"Should we just start mock drafts at No. 2 at this point? The Raiders need a quarterback solution, and Mendoza has the tools to be a franchise guy. Lock it in."

Mendoza was also the top pick in the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest mock draft, ESPN's Peter Schrager's mock draft, NFL Media's Chad Reuter's mock draft, and ESPN's Ben Solak's all-quarterback mock draft.

When it comes to 2026 quarterback prospects, the questions begin with Simpson.

Ty Simpson's Landing Spot Remains Unknown

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Ty Simpson

While few consider Simpson a true first-round prospect, there's a good chance a team takes him in Round 1 because of the fifth-year option. However, it remains unclear which team might flip the switch on that decision.

"In talking to sources throughout the league, you often hear teams suggest someone might take him, but no one is convinced on who that might be," ESPN's Matt Miller recently wrote. "Even the idea of the Cardinals trading back into Round 1 was met with skepticism from one scouting director I spoke to."

Opinions are split on where Simpson might land and how highly he'll be drafted, but the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets are trending as top candidates. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are two other teams that could use a long-term answer at quarterback—though both could wait until 2027.

The Browns are likely to give Sanders another full season with which to audition, while the Steelers are still hoping to bring back Aaron Rodgers.

Mock Predictions for Ty Simpson

ESPN's Collaborative: New York Jets (33rd overall)

B/R Scouting Department: Arizona Cardinals (via trade, 26th overall)

Ben Solak: Arizona Cardinals (via trade, 31st overall)

Peter Schrager: N/A

Chad Reuter: New York Jets (16th overall)

Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar Loom as Day 2 Prospects

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LSU QB prospect Garrett Nussmeier

It would be a massive surprise if a third quarterback sneaks into the first round this year. Unsurprisingly, you won't see a third quarterback listed in mock drafts that don't go beyond Round 1, like those of Schrager and the B/R Scouting Department.

However, Mendoza and Simpson aren't the only QB prospects in this year's class that could have a bright future in the NFL. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State's Drew Allar, and Miami's Carson Beck are all prospects who could garner attention on Day 2.

Solak, for example, has Nussmeier landing with Pittsburgh in the third round, citing his connections with the new Steelers' staff:

"The connection between the Steelers and Nussmeier is obvious. When Mike McCarthy was the head coach in Dallas, Nussmeier's father, Doug, was his quarterbacks coach. Doug Nussmeier has stayed in the coaching tree, too, following Kellen Moore to the Chargers, then the Eagles and then the Saints."

Reuter has Nussmeier landing with the Cardinals at the top of Round 3, while ESPN's collaborative mock has him sticking with the Los Angeles Rams in the third round—with Beck landing with Arizona in Round 2.

"Beck sees the field well and can get the ball out quickly and accurately, and Arizona could let him learn behind Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew," Kiper wrote. "I like this flier, but it also crucially wouldn't prevent the Cards from going back to the QB well next year in a deeper class."

Teams seeking a developmental quarterback, long-term backup, or future starter will have options beyond Day 1.

Garrett Nussmeier Mock Predictions

ESPN Collaborative: Los Angeles Rams, Round 3 (93rd overall)

Ben Solak: Pittsburgh Steelers, Round 3 (99th overall)

Chad Reuter: Arizona Cardinals, Round 3 (65th overall)

Drew Aller Mock Predictions

ESPN Collaborative: Pittsburgh Steelers, Round 3 (85th overall)

Ben Solak: Miami Dolphins, Round 4 (130th overall)

Chad Reuter: Los Angeles Rams Round 5, (157th overall)

Carson Beck Mock Predictions

ESPN Collaborative: Arizona Cardinals, Round 3 (65th overall)

Ben Solak: Dallas Cowboys, Round 5 (152nd overall)

Chad Reuter: Pittsburgh Steelers, Round 3 (76th overall)