New NFL Mock Draft Trends and Trade Candidates to Know from Top Experts' Latest Predictions

The 2026 NFL draft is now two weeks away, and the first-round picture is beginning to come into focus. We obviously don't know how every selection will unfold, but we're getting a better idea of what some teams are expected to do.

As the draft draws nearer and information starts to leak, mock draft trends usually fall a bit closer to the real thing. For example, we know that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a near-lock to go to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1. It seems increasingly likely that Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese will land with the New York Jets at No. 2.

"After listening to [head coach Aaron] Glenn, then gathering a few crumbs at the NFL spring meetings in Phoenix, it feels like Ohio State's Arvell Reese is the best fit," ESPN's Rich Cimini wrote.

Unsurprisingly, Mendoza and Reese are the first two selections in many recent mocks. What other trends are we seeing with two weeks to go? Let's take a look.

David Bailey Looking Like a Top-5 Lock

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

David Bailey

While Reese is trending as the Jets' selection at No. 2, the prediction isn't universal. ESPN's Peter Schrager, for example, recently released his first mock of the season and paired the Jets with Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey:

"This will likely be either Bailey or Ohio State's Arvell Reese—New York was 31st in sacks last season with 26 -- but I have to think Bailey is the guy for the Jets. He is a polished pass rusher with proven production, tying for the FBS lead in sacks (14.5) in 2025. He can be a Day 1 disrupter off the edge."

Bailey may indeed be in the conversation at No. 2 for New York. What might be more important to note here is that Bailey is starting to trend as one of the first two defenders off the board.

Bailey was the fourth overall pick in ESPN's recent collaborative mock draft, conducted by Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates. He was also the fourth pick in CBS Sports' Pete Prisco's latest mock. Bailey went third overall in the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's updated mock draft.

In other words, there's a real chance that Bailey will end up going ahead of Reese. There's an even better chance that he'll be one of the top defenders taken and a top-five lock.

Top Lineman Remains a Mystery

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

Miami OL Prospect Francis Mauigoa

There's no question that Mendoza is the top quarterback prospect in this class. There's a little more uncertainty about whether Reese is the top defender, and there's a lot of uncertainty about who is the top offensive lineman and where he'll go.

In ESPN's collaborative mock, Miami's Francis Mauigoa was the first lineman off the board, landing with the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3.

"The Cardinals signed Elijah Wilkinson, but that shouldn't keep them from drafting a long-term solution at right tackle," ESPN's Jordan Reid wrote. "Mauigoa is a plug-and-play starter and my top tackle in the class."

Mauigoa was also the pick in Schrager's mock, landing with the New York Giants at No. 5. However, Georgia's Monroe Freeling was the top lineman in Prisco's mock, going to the Cleveland Browns at No. 6.

"This is high for him in my book, but there are lot of teams that like him," Prisco wrote. "The Browns need a left tackle for the long run and he could be that guy."

Freeling was also the top lineman in the B/R Scouting Department's mock, though he fell to the Miami Dolphins at No. 11.

It's entirely unclear which lineman will be first off the board later this month and where he'll be selected. It's also unclear which prospect will prove to be the best pro. Utah's Spencer Fano was the top-ranked lineman in the Scouting Department's updated draft board.

Cardinals, Bills, Patriots Trending as Trade Candidates

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Alabama QB prospect Ty Simpson

Some draft experts don't include trades in their mock drafts. However, the B/R Scouting Department and Schrager both did, and both included deals for Alabama quarterback prospect Ty Simpson.

Simpson is widely viewed as the second-best QB in the draft behind Mendoza. The Scouting Department had the Arizona Cardinals trading with the Buffalo Bills to get him at No. 26. Schrager had Arizona trading with the New England Patriots at No. 31.

"When will Simpson go? I think he's a Round 2 player, similar in grade to where I had Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart last year," Schrager wrote. "Of course, Dart ended up going in Round 1 with a small trade up for the Giants so that they could secure the fifth-year option."

The fifth-year option is precisely why a team may trade back into Round 1 for a prospect like Simpson. The overall makeup of the draft class is why teams like Buffalo and New England may trade out.

The B/R Scouting Department only has a first-round grade on 22 players. That suggests that the quality of prospects teams will find late in Round 1 isn't much different than what they'll find early in Round 2. If a team can pick up extra capital to move down a few spots, it's a win.

Arizona isn't the only team that could make a move for Simpson, either. The ESPN collaborative mock had the Jets taking him with the first pick in Round 2, and a trade up to secure the fifth-year option would make sense for New York. Prisco had the Browns snapping up Simpson at No. 24, and Cleveland might try to move ahead of teams like the Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers to secure Simpson if it truly covets him.

One thing is for certain. We're probably not going to see the first round unfold without a few draft-day trades.