BS Meter on the Biggest 2026 NFL Draft Rumors with 2 Weeks to Go

Does anyone else remember when the San Francisco 49ers traded for the third overall pick in the 2021 draft and selected Mac Jones? No? Because it never happened.

However, rumors of head coach Kyle Shanahan's adoration for Jones were hot and heavy at the time. Ironically, Jones is now on the San Francisco roster and he performed well this past season, while the actual pick that year, Trey Lance, never found his footing as an NFL starter despite his lofty draft status.

Misinformation spreads like wildfire, especially in the social media age.

Some of the rumor-mongering originates from NFL organizations trying to manipulate the draft to their liking. They will float ideas or false reports just to see how others react. It happens every cycle. Others come from agenda-based representation within the players' circles. At times, poor reporting is at fault.

The difficult aspect is deciding what rumors have actual backing, as opposed to those with no merits whatsoever.

Let's take a spin around the NFL and see which current rumors are picking up steam as the league heads toward the start of the draft on April 23 and decipher how much legitimacy can be found within the rumor mill.

New York Jets Shift from Arvell Reese to David Bailey With 2nd Overall Pick

Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Texas Tech's David Bailey

Rumor Status: More Likely Than Not

Ohio State's Arvell Reese has been the overwhelming favorite to become the New York Jets' selection with the second overall pick for the majority of this cycle. However, that perception may be changing as the days draw nearer.

Both NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN's Peter Schrager believe the Jets are leaning toward the selection of Texas Tech's David Bailey once they're on the clock. Because of the class' setup, there's no reason to believe otherwise.

The Jets don't need to float out bad information since Fernando Mendoza feels like a lock to the Las Vegas Raiders with the No. 1 overall pick (as he should be). New York will be on the board with their choice of prospects from any non-quarterback position.

Reese presents as much upside as anyone in this year's draft class. He's an elite athlete and hybrid defender capable of playing off-ball linebacker and on the edge. However, he's primarily been a linebacker and his value of a rusher is mostly projected.

Whereas, Bailey is the class' best pure pass-rusher.

"No edge-rusher posted a higher true pass-rush win rate (41.7 percent), making Bailey the only defender in the class above 40 percent [on true pass-rush snaps], and his 40.7 percent pressure rate comfortably led the group, with the next closest rusher at 35.9 percent," Pro Football Focus' Mark Chichester wrote.

His 21.5 sacks over the last two seasons probably gave it away, too.

The Jets may have signed Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare this offseason to join Will McDonald IV, but Enagbare inked a one-year deal, while McDonald is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

Furthermore, Reese's value drops dramatically if a team isn't 100 percent sold on his ability to develop into a full-time edge. The Jets know exactly what they're going to get from Bailey, while definitively drafting a premium position with the second overall pick.

With Bailey, the Jets should be able to consistently get after opposing quarterbacks, especially since they have to face Josh Allen and Drake Maye twice per season.

Alabama QB Ty Simpson Doesn't Just Go 1st Round, Lands In Top 10

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Rumor Status: Not Gonna Happen

Every year, the same assumption is made. The quarterback position is too valuable, thus certain names will be driven up the board and drafted higher than expected.

Don't be mistaken. That scenario does happen. The 2024 draft class is the prime example, with six quarterbacks chosen among the first 12 selections. The approach isn't universal, though.

Too many expected quarterbacks to go much higher than expected in 2022 and 2023. Only Kenny Pickett heard his name called in the first round (not in the top 15), and Will Levis fell out of the initial frame entirely during those back-to-back classes.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is a more interesting name compared to those last two mentioned, because he presents far more upside. The one-year starter looked like a legitimate first-round talent during the first half of the 2025 campaign, only to see his season take a significant downturn due to multiple injuries.

Still, he's very much in the first-round mix. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport isn't even ruling out the possibility of a top-five selection.

"The Cardinals at No. 3, I will say, 'Let's just see,'" he said about the possibility of Arizona taking Simpson. "We have seen far too often ... a team falls in love with a guy and says, 'I don't care. I'm going to take him.' ... Certainly it could happen."

Rapoport also hedged his comments by saying it's more likely the Cardinals trade back into the first round. Maybe the Los Angeles Rams move from the 13th overall pick and trade up for Matthew Stafford's eventual replacement, but the organization is all in to win now.

Besides, Simpson isn't a top-10 prospect, even in a class with only one surefire first-round quarterback. Multiple teams are still searching for a long-term answer at the game's most important position, which is why things will get really interesting a little late in the process.

The Alabama product should come into play with the 20th overall pick if a team wants to jump ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, the Steelers must consider the possibility with the 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers expected to start another season.

The Cleveland Browns could leapfrog their archrival or see if Simpson falls to them with the 24th pick. Finally, both the New York Jets and Cardinals should jockey to get back into the opening frame for a chance to select their next starting quarterback.

Whatever the case may be, the idea of Arizona pulling the trigger and selecting Simpson with the third overall pick borders on fantasy.

Arizona Cardinals Surprise, Take RB Jeremiyah Love with 3rd Overall Pick

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Rumor Status: Legit

The Arizona Cardinals could go in (almost) any direction since the team needs help on both sides of the ball and the vision has changed under new head coach Mike LaFleur.

More often than not, the Cardinals are projected to select either an A) offensive tackle or B) elite defensive prospects with this year's third overall pick.

However, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is graded as one of the top two prospects in this year's draft regardless of position, according to B/R's Scouting Department.

The Cardinals already have capable ball-carriers on the roster in veteran James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson and Bam Knight. However, none of them are seen as difference-makers. Whereas, Love is a legitimate weapon capable of affecting games in both phases of the game.

Arizona brass should be strongly contemplating the option of drafting Love with the third pick and then trading back into the first round for quarterback Ty Simpson, thus giving LaFleur a strong investment in his new-look offense.

The first indication that Love will be drafted higher than expected occurred at the onset of the new league year when the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs, who own this year's eighth and ninth overall pick, respectively, immediately signed high-priced veteran ball-carriers. They had to do so based on the expectation that Love will be long gone once they're on the clock.

From there, Todd McShay relayed there is a possibility that another team could trade into the top 10 to select the elite running back prospects. McShay later added there's at least one voice in the Cardinals organization advocating for Love.

Finally, ESPN's Peter Schrager noted: "One wild card to watch here [with the third pick] is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love."

Clearly, some interest exists within Arizona's building. They may not end up selecting the running back, but he seems to be very much in play. The potential move makes a ton of sense, too.

LaFleur has a history working with both Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Both head coaches/play-callers use the run game to set up their entire offense. The Cardinals can deploy Love in a Christian McCaffrey-like role to provide the scheme with a focal point and difference-maker.

New York Giants Take Class' Top WR With 5th Overall Pick

Jason Mowry/Getty Images

Ohio State's Carnell Tate

Rumor Status: Market Manipulation

The New York Giants are best-situated to trade out of the fifth overall pick. In order to do so, some interest must be generated from those willing to pay the price and move into that range.

Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate simultaneously makes sense for the Giants with the fifth overall pick, so Malik Nabers can have a running mate in the passing game, and an obvious name to entice a trade.

"You're always going to want to add more explosiveness to your offense, guys that score touchdowns, wherever that comes from: running back, receiver, tight ends, whatever it may be,'' general manager Joe Schoen told reporters at the NFL combine. "That will be something we'll look for."

Todd McShay believes Tate may end up among the top-five picks. Similarly, ESPN's Matt Miller believes that 6.5 is the over/under for Tate's selection. These two are essentially saying the same thing, albeit from different viewpoints.

The first point of view is from the Giants, who want a team to trade up and nab Tate before the Cleveland Browns can choose him with the sixth pick. Essentially, Miller thinks the Browns will select the wide receiver if he's available.

The Tate example isn't the only instance of the Giants setting the table for a trade-down, because there is also a report of the team's potential interest in an offensive lineman with the fifth pick.

Head coach John Harbaugh told reporters: "Offensive line is a work in progress. Not done there yet."

What's the other position the Browns desperately need to address? Offensive tackle.

The Giants are laying smokescreens to ensure an interested suitor gets ahead of Cleveland for its preferred wide receiver or offensive lineman. Thus, New York can trade down and add extra assets.

Art Stapleton of NewJersey.com identified Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane and Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa as trade-down targets.

Indianapolis Colts Ready to Replace WR Michael Pittman Jr. With In-State Product

Luke Hales/Getty Images

Indiana's Elijah Sarratt

Rumor Status: Right Position, Wrong Target

Once the Indianapolis Colts signed Alec Pierce to a four-year, $114 million contract extension, the organization couldn't keep Michael Pittman Jr.

Pierce will become the Colts' WR1 by default because of his new deal. Pittman was already being paid close to the same level. However, the shift in hierarchy basically made the veteran target the squad's fourth-best option behind Pierce, Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren. Thus, general manager Chris Ballard quickly shipped the 28-year-old to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

However, Pittman's absence does lead a void. His size, physicality and ability to create after the catch could have still held value in Indianapolis, just not at his price point. To help offset some of the loss, the Colts signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, though he's traditionally been more of a vertical threat throughout his career.

As a result, wide receiver remains in play once the Colts are finally on the clock during Day 2 of the draft. They may even have a specific target in mind.

"Sources said that not only would [Elijah] Sarratt be a perfect replacement [for Pittman]," Essentially Sports' Tony Pauline reported, "but it would be a homecoming of sorts, as the wideout has been a terrific receiver for the Indiana Hoosiers the past two years and was a big part of the offense that propelled the program to the national title last season."

Sarratt does provide a big-bodied, reliable target, particularly on money downs and within the red zone. However, he's not as big, long or explosive as Pittman entering the professional ranks.

Ballard likes his uber-athletes. Georgia State's Ted Hurst, Ole Miss' De'Zhaun Stribling and North Dakota State's Bryce Lance fit that mold, while being able to do some of the things previously asked of Pittman as well. Plus, their upside is far higher, which could be important for the Colts since they don't own a first-round pick.