Latest NFL Draft 2026 Expert Mocks, Projections for Difficult 1st-Round Decisions

Though the 2026 NFL draft is less than three weeks away, there's still plenty we don't know.

The Las Vegas Raiders are widely expected to use the first overall pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. It's the logical choice, even after the Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins.

Las Vegas needs a long-term answer at quarterback, and Mendoza is the most proven QB prospect in this draft class. He won the Heisman, led Indiana to a national championship, and is the easy choice at No. 1. Of course, not every decision made on April 23 will be made as easily.

Here, we'll dive into some expert mocks from around the web and see what the experts think about some of this year's more difficult first-round choices.

How High Will Jeremiyah Love Go?

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File

Notre Dame RB prospect Jeremiyah Love

Mendoza will probably go first overall because he's a clean prospect at quarterback. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is also a "safe" prospect, a legitimate difference-maker with the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler at the next level.

Of course, even elite running back prospects don't always go highly in the opening round. A team may take Love with a top-10 or even top-five selection this year, but flipping the switch on the pick won't be easy.

Running backs continue to be viewed as a less-premium and replaceable position. Love, though, is shaping up to be a high pick regardless.

ESPN's recent collaborative mock—conducted by Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, and Field Yates—paired Love with the New York Giants at No. 5 overall. The Ringers' Todd McShay made the same prediction, while the Bleacher Report Scouting Department paired the former Irish star with the Tennessee Titans at No. 4.

The Athletic's Vic Tafur had an even bolder prediction, with the Dallas Cowboys making a hypothetical trade up to No. 3 to land Love.

In other words, no one should be surprised if Love is the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley was taken second overall in 2018.

Will the Cowboys Really Consider Offense in Round 1?

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USC WR prospect Makai Lemon

Would the Cowboys really make a move up to land Love? Will they consider other offensive prospects, like USC receiver Makai Lemon or Texas A&M wideout  Kevin Concepcion? According to head coach Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas won't rule it out.

"Certainly we're not going to pass on a great offensive player if they're there at one of those spots," Schottenheimer said, per Tommy Yarrish of the team's official website.

Most, however, expect the Cowboys to address their defense with their two first-round picks (No. 12 and No. 20.

The ESPN mock has Dallas taking Miami edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and Missouri edge-rusher Zion Young. McShay mocked Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy and Clemson edge T.J. Parker to Dallas. The B/R Scouting Department paired the Cowboys with McCoy and Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman.

It's not hard to predict Dallas having a defensive focus in Round 1. The Cowboys ranked second in total offense and 30th in total defense last season.

However, if the value of an offensive player is high enough when Dallas is on the clock, they may have to make the difficult decision to grab him. A trade up for a player like Love would be more surprising but wouldn't be wholly unrealistic.

Will a Team Make an Aggressive Play for Ty Simpson?

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Alabama QB prospect Ty Simpson

While Mendoza is viewed as the top quarterback in the 2026 class by most, Alabama's Ty Simpson has some supporters. ESPN's Dan Orlovsky, for example, recently stated that he believes Simpson is QB1 in this class.

No one really expects Simpson to go ahead of Mendoza, but that doesn't mean a team won't gamble on Simpson early. While teams should be wary of Simpson's small sample size (15 starts), he did show some high-level potential early in the 2025 season.

How much are teams willing to gamble? It wouldn't be a total shock to see a team take Simpson in the first half of Round 1. NFL.com's Chad Reuter predicted exactly that, pairing Simpson with the New York Jets at No. 16.

The ESPN mock also had Simpson landing with New York, albeit with the 33rd overall selection. McShay also had Simpson falling out of Round 1, though Tafur paired him with the Cleveland Browns at No. 24.

The B/R Scouting Department had the Arizona Cardinals making an aggressive move up for Simpson, trading with the Buffalo Bills to land him at No. 26.

We may indeed see a team trade back into the first round for Simpson because of the fifth-year option. With QB-needy teams like the Jets, Cardinals, and Browns sitting at the top of the second-round order, there's a real chance that more than one franchise tries scrambling up the board.