2025-26 NFL MVP Updated Predictions Entering Divisional Bracket After Final Odds

With the wild-card round in the rear view, we're one step closer to Super Bowl LX—and the 2026 NFL Honors, which is scheduled for February 5.

The headline award at the NFL honors, of course, is the league MVP. While we don't know who voters have chosen as this year's MVP—members of the Associated Press cast their ballots at the end of the regular season—the results of All-Pro voting can give us an idea.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was selected to the All-Pro first-team, suggesting he's also the voters' top choice for NFL MVP—an award no non-quarterback has won since 2012.

Surprises can and do happen in the NFL, though. Let's dive into the latest consensus MVP odds, examine the top candidates, and make some predictions.

Updated NFL MVP Odds

AP Photo/Steven Senne

Rams QB Matthew Stafford and Patriots QB Drake Maye

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams: -195 bet $195 to win $100)

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: +160 (bet $100 to win $160)

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: +27274

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: +50000

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos: +50000

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: +50000

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks: +50000

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers: +50000

Micah Parsons, Edge, Green Bay Packers: +50000

*Consensus odds from Action Network

Making a Case for Drake Maye

AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Patriots QB Drake Maye

Stafford is a fairly heavy MVP favorite, and as the odds might suggest, it's pretty much a two-player race. The only non-quarterbacks who are even on the board are Seattle Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Green Bay Packers pass-rusher Micah Parsons.

Running back Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to be named MVP, and that happened well over a decade ago.

Second-year New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye joins Stafford as this year's two logical quarterback choices. While Maye was named to the All-Pro second-team, he did receive 18 first-place votes, according to the Associated Press.

Stafford received 31 first-place votes, and since the same 50 voters who cast All-Pro ballots select the MVP, it's logical to assume that the 37-year-old will beat out his Patriots counterpart.

Yet, it's not a guarantee. Some voters could determine that Stafford was the better quarterback in 2025 while Maye was more valuable to his team.

That's not at all an outlandish thing to consider. New England won just four games during Maye's rookie season, but Maye was still a Pro Bowl alternate. With an experienced coaching staff—led by Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels—Maye blossomed into one of the league's biggest stars this season.

Maye led the league with a completion rate of 72 percent and a 113.5 passer rating. He also carried his team in multiple games while leading New England to 14 wins. One could argue that the 23-year-old did more with less than what Stafford had around him in Los Angeles.

The fact that New England actually won its division and finished with a better record than the Rams can't be discounted either.

Why Stafford Will Probably Be Named MVP

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

No one should be shocked if Maye ends up being this year's MVP. He had better numbers in some important categories, added highlight-reel plays as a scramble, and led his team to a better record.

Had the Rams won the NFC West and the NFC's No. 1 seed, there might be less of a debate.

Yet, it still feels likely that Stafford will come away with the award, and that's the prediction here. It's certainly not as if his 2025 campaign wasn't deserving. Stafford led the league in passing yards (4,707), passing touchdowns (46), and passing yards per game (276.9).

The Rams also faced a tougher schedule, and Stafford went 5-3 against teams that finished above .500 while Maye went 1-2. That shouldn't carry a ton of weight since teams don't exactly get to pick who they face. However, some voters won't ignore the fact that L.A. made the playoffs out of the brutal NFC West.

Ultimately, though, Stafford may get the nod because of the story—and voters do love a good story. The former Detroit Lions star is likely nearing the end of his career and may never have another legitimate chance to win the MVP award. Voters who believe he should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer may opt to give Stafford a pseudo-lifetime achievement award.

Maye, meanwhile, is only in his second season. Theoretically, he'll have many more chances to claim an MVP trophy if Stafford gets it this year. That logic is, of course, flawed—Dan Marino never got back to the Super Bowl after losing one in his second season. Yet, it could sway voters on the fence about picking between two deserving stars.

A tie is possible and might be the justified outcome this season, though it would be highly unlikely. Under the AP's revised voting process, ballots include votes for first through fifth place, with points being assigned to each: 10 points for first place, five for second place, three for third, two for fourth, and one point for a fifth-place vote.

The odds of Stafford and Maye receiving the same number of points through such a system are extremely low, but a tie is more likely than anyone other than Stafford and Maye winning this year's MVP.