NFL MVP Race 2025-26 Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 18

There are 13 quarterbacks listed in DraftKings Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds, but anyone who has paid even a little attention this season knows the race is truly between two quarterbacks: the New England Patriots' Drake Maye and the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford. 

On one side, a young, promising player hoping to revive a former dynasty. On the other, a seasoned vet who has never won the award and may not have another chance to. 

Even as Stafford seemed to be closing in on locking down the award, huge swings in either direction in Week 17—Maye threw for five touchdowns in a win over the New England Jets, while Stafford uncharacteristically threw three interceptions in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons—have upended the odds once again. 

Let's take a look at who's currently favored to be named NFL MVP and break down how the race could end up after the final week of play.

Updated MVP Odds

AP Photo

Drake Maye -400 (bet $400 to win $100)

Matthew Stafford +300 (bet $100 to win $300)

Trevor Lawrence +18000

Caleb Williams +1000

Justin Herbert +30000

Josh Allen +30000

Sam Darnold +40000

Bo Nix +40000

Christian McCaffrey +50000

C.J. Stroud +50000

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +50000

Jalen Hurts +50000

Baker Mayfield +100000

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

MVP Predictions

AP Photo

Entering Week 17, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was the betting favorite to be named NFL regular season MVP. He was, after all, leading the NFL in touchdown passes and passing yards, with only five interceptions on the season. The 37-year-old was making a case for first-ever career MVP win. 

Sure, the memory of Stafford's two-touchdown, two-interception outing against the Carolina Panthers' upset of the Rams in Week 13 has not yet faded, and the Rams were coming off a disastrous 38-37 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but the latter was truly a defensive and special teams implosion. Stafford had 457 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions…and, as we all know, wins are not a QB stat. 

However, by halftime of the Rams' Monday Night Football tilt against the Atlanta Falcons, Vegas was singing a different tune. Stafford had two interceptions by the end of the second quarter, one of them a pick six by Jessie Bates III to put the Falcons up 14-0. 

Of course, this same Matthew Stafford helped lead the Rams on a furious second-half comeback (as did Jared Verse, who added six points with a blocked field goal returned for 76 yards) to tie the game 24-24 near the end of the fourth quarter. He counteracted a third interception with an eight-play, 89-yard touchdown drive. And he got the ball back down three with 21 seconds remaining in the game. 

Had Stafford and the Rams been able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, perhaps the narrative would be different heading into Week 18. But for now, Vegas and, we must assume, MVP voters, have cast their shining gaze to New England Patriots rookie signal-caller Drake Maye. 

Maye is now the betting favorite to win the award, at -400 following Monday Night Football. He has been the favorite at other times this season, as recently as earlier this month, and there's no question he's a worthy contender. Maye has the league's highest QBR (76.5) and is one of only four quarterbacks to have surpassed the 4,000-yard mark this season. (Stafford is another.) His five-touchdown performance in Week 17 against the Jets will be fresh in voters' minds. 

Maye's 30 touchdowns are tied with Dak Prescott for the third most in the NFL. Jared Goff is second, with 33. But Stafford is the league's only quarterback to have reached (and surpassed) 40 touchdowns and, unless Goff manages to tie the record for most touchdowns in a single game, Stafford is set to be the only one to do so. 

Maye is doing what he is doing in his second season, which adds another compelling layer to his story. Still, on the other side is Stafford, the grizzled vet who may never have another chance to be named MVP.

One might imagine the voters went to sleep Monday night hoping that either quarterback has a performance so definitive in Week 18 that it makes their decision easy.