NFL MVP Race 2025-26 Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 17

Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams lost hold of the No. 1 seed in the NFC in Week 16, but he didn't let go of control in the NFL MVP race.

Stafford is still the MVP favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook over Drake Maye and a host of others.

Maye and a handful of other AFC quarterbacks have strong cases to land first-place votes in the MVP discussion.

Trevor Lawrence has an especially interesting case to be made because of how well the Jacksonville Jaguars played of late.

Stafford and Maye have been in a two-man race for a while, but there's a small chance someone else sneaks into the conversation.

Matthew Stafford (-215)

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Matthew Stafford is already over 4,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns.

The Rams quarterback did his part to try and lead his team to a win on Thursday night over the Seattle Seahawks.

Los Angeles' defense broke down in the fourth quarter and overtime to allow Seattle to take control of the NFC West title race and the fight for home-field advantage.

Stafford had 457 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat. He'll be able to pad his numbers in the final two weeks of the regular season against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.

The numbers will be there for Stafford, but there's a chance the Rams don't host a playoff game.

The MVP contenders in the AFC have better paths to higher seeds and division titles, which is something voters might weigh during their final decision.

Drake Maye (+175)

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Drake Maye needs two wins over the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to lead the New England Patriots to the AFC East title.

A division title would be the major difference between the MVP cases of Maye and Stafford, if the Rams can't come back to win the NFC West.

Maye ranks in the top five in passing yards and passing touchdowns and he is coming off the best passing performance of his career against the Baltimore Ravens.

A few additional 300-yard outings would help Maye's case even further, but earning the AFC East crown is paramount.

If New England wins the division and claims the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Maye's achievements might beat out Stafford's statistics for the MVP.

Trevor Lawrence (+6000)

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Trevor Lawrence owns the fourth-best MVP odds behind Stafford, Maye and Josh Allen.

He has as good of a case as anyone right now to win the award since the Jaguars are on a six-game winning streak and still in competition for the AFC's top seed.

Lawrence threw eight touchdown passes in the last two weeks and he led the Jaguars to a Week 16 road win over the AFC-leading Denver Broncos.

Lawrence has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions across the last four weeks. He's also scored twice on the ground in that span.

Jacksonville should close the regular season with two more wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.

An argument could be made in Lawrence's favor if the Jags finish with 13 wins, an eight-game winning streak, the AFC South title and possibly the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

MVP Prediction

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Maye has the opportunity to land the highest playoff seed among the MVP contenders.

New England needs to win out and have Denver lose once, which is possible in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Stafford has the numbers to win MVP, but the Rams are currently third in the NFC West behind Seattle and San Francisco.

Maye's combination of strong passing numbers and at least a division title should push the odds in his favor.

Lawrence will continue to make a late push, and do not be surprised if he finishes inside the top three over Josh Allen.

Prediction: 1. Drake Maye, 2. Matthew Stafford, 3. Trevor Lawrence