NFL Playoff Scenarios 2025-26 Review and AFC, NFC Picture, Bracket After Week 16

Parity has run wild in the NFL in 2025 and while any team in playoff contention can conceivably win the Super Bowl, the postseason picture and who will land where in the standings is growing clearer with every week.

Such is the case after Week 16, where the Seattle Seahawks took over the top seed in the NFC and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Carolina Panthers put the rest of the league on notice with key victories.

What is the current playoff picture, who has the inside track to the remaining spots, and who is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl in February?

Find out with in this review.

AFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo

Division Leaders

1. x-Denver Broncos (12-3, AFC West; +900)

2. x-New England Patriots (12-3, AFC East; +900)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, AFC South; +1400)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, AFC North; +3500)

Despite a decisive loss to Jacksonville, Denver simply needs to win out and they will be the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. They get a Patrick Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs team in Week 17 but a season-ending battle with Los Angeles, which could be for the AFC West crown, could be the difference between hosting the playoffs and hitting the road.

New England has an easier path, with games against the Jets and Dolphins, but a tie win-loss record with Denver would see the Broncos get the nod due to win percentage in common games.

For the Jaguars, fresh off their seventh consecutive win, a loss by the Indianapolis Colts to the San Francisco 49ers Monday night will cash their ticket to the postseason.

The Steelers can win the AFC North with a victory in Cleveland next week or by sweeping the Ravens in Week 18.

Wild Card Teams

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4; +2000)

6. Buffalo Bills (11-4; +850)

7. Houston Texans (10-5; +1600)

The Chargers can win out and still capture the AFC West crown, but it will not be easy. Remaining games against Houston and Denver make their final two weeks of the season as tough as anyone's.

A 49ers win over Indy also cashes Buffalo's ticket to the playoffs. The team can conceivably win the AFC East crown for the sixth straight year, but would need the Patriots to lose, something that would be somewhat surprising given their final two regular-season opponents.

Houston's win over Las Vegas prevented Buffalo, Los Angeles, and Jacksonville from sewing up a playoff berth, and the Texans are still not out of the AFC South picture, winners of eight of their last nine and possessors of one of the stingiest defenses in the league. Showdowns with the Chargers and Colts could determine not only who gets in the postseason, but also the order of the standings.

In The Hunt

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6; +80000)

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-8; +10000)

The Colts are the only team with a schedule more daunting than Los Angeles, thanks to match-ups with playoff-contending teams, starting with San Francisco Monday night, then Jacksonville, and, finally, Houston. Even a future Hall of Famer like 44-year-old Philip Rivers may not be enough to get Shane Steichen and Co. to the postseason.

A Pittsburgh victory over the Cleveland Browns would eliminate the Ravens. A loss, though, and Week 18's showdown with Pittsburgh is for the AFC North crown.

Eliminated

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)

11. Miami Dolphins (6-9)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)

13. New York Jets (3-12)

14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)

15. Cleveland Browns (3-12)

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)

NFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo

Division Leaders

1. x-Seattle Seahawks (12-3, NFC West; +500 odds to win the Super Bowl)

2. x-Chicago Bears (11-4, NFC North; +2000)'

3. z-Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, NFC East; +950)

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7, NFC South; +13000)

After a dramatic, come-from-behind win over Los Angeles Thursday night, Seattle's path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs is simple: win out and it is theirs. NFC South leader Carolina and division foe, San Francisco, could have other plans, though.

Chicago clinched a playoff berth with their walk-off touchdown against Green Bay Saturday and Detroit's heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh Sunday. They can still achieve the No. 1 overall seed by winning their final two games, against San Francisco and the Lions.

The Eagles won the division, becoming the first team to earn consecutive NFC East crowns in over two decades. They have a tough game against Buffalo in Week 17, in which the Bills will be looking to cement their playoff status, and end the season with a winnable game against Washington.

For the Panthers, their playoff trajectory is simple: win next week while the Buccaneers lose and they are the NFC South champs, a far cry from what many expected from the squad. A loss, though, and the Week 18 match-up against Baker Mayfield and Co. becomes sudden death title game.

Wild Card Teams

5. x-Los Angeles Rams (11-4; +400)

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4; +2000)

7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1; +1600)

The Rams no longer control their path to the No. 1 seed and home field advantage, but they do have two winnable games against bad Atlanta and Arizona teams, meaning a 13-4 record is not out of reach. That may be good enough to get them there given some of the tougher competition their rivals face in the last two weeks of the season.

How underrated are the 49ers? If they win out, they are the No. 1 seed, a development few could have imagined considering the injuries to key players the team endured this season. Of course, two of their last three are against Chicago and Seattle, so it is easier said than done.

The Lions' loss Sunday gave the Packers a 1.5 game lead over Detroit and with two winnable games against a reeling Baltimore squad and the already eliminated Vikings, it would be difficult to imagine Matt LaFleur and Co. missing out barring a collapse.

In the Hunt

8. Detroit Lions (8-7; +13000)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8; +8000)

The Lions have to win out and hope for the best after Sunday's loss, their playoff hopes all but extinguished.

The Buccaneers have lost six of their last seven and gave the Panthers control of the NFC South with their loss Sunday. While they can still win the division by winning out, there is nothing about the team and its sudden inability to stop any aerial attack that makes one believe the postseason is in the cards for Baker Mayfield and his squad.

Eliminated

10. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)

11. Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)

12. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)

13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)

14. Washington Commanders (4-11)

15. Arizona Cardinals (3-12)

16. New York Giants (2-13)

x - denotes clinched playoffs

z - denoted clinched division