Which NFL Teams Are Most Desperate for the No. 1 Draft Pick?

With three weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, six teams still have realistic shots at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft.

Which of those teams needs it the most?

Let's rank them in terms of their desperation. 

*Odds courtesy of The New York Times' NFL Playoff Simulator.

6. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

Cam Ward

Odds: 18%

Current slot: 3rd

Key Remaining Game: Week 17 vs. New Orleans

They're only expected to be an underdog of about a field goal, which is also the case at home against the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs this Sunday. That is dangerous for a team that only won its second game of the season earlier this month.

Desperation Factor: Regardless of his struggles with very limited support as a rookie, the Titans are all-in on 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward. Obviously, they would love to maximize draft capital and could benefit from the opportunity to trade away the top selection, but this isn't necessarily a clear‑cut, franchise‑changing situation. 

Prediction: They beat either the Chiefs or the Saints (or even the Jaguars if Week 18 doesn't matter to Jacksonville) and wind up outside of the top three.

5. New York Giants (2-12)

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Jaxson Dart

Odds: 18%

Current slot: 1st

Key Remaining Game: Week 17 at Las Vegas

Right now, both the Raiders and the Giants are 2-12, mired in eight‑game losing streaks, and holding the top two draft slots.

Desperation Factor: The Giants may have their quarterback in 2025 first-rounder Jaxson Dart, and the offensive core is pretty much locked in. A potential game-changing defender such as Arvell Reese would be huge for them, but there's a good chance they don't need the top pick for him or a similar prospect. 

Prediction: They have battled often enough this season that they finally stumble into a win against either Minnesota or Las Vegas (or both) and wind up picking third or lower. 

4. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

AP Photo/Erin Hooley

Kevin Stefanski

Odds: 10%

Current slot: 4th

Key Remaining Game: Week 18 at Cincinnati

With Buffalo and Pittsburgh preceding this game, it's simply their best shot at a win that would take them out of contention for the top selection. 

Desperation Factor: Despite the fact that there are still massive questions about who will quarterback this team going forward and the offense is in dire need of an influx of talent, the Browns likely still want to wait and see on their current young QBs. They also own Jacksonville's first-round pick, which gives them some more capital and flexibility. 

Prediction: They finish 0-3, but ultimately it's that wild Week 3 win over Green Bay that costs them the No. 1 pick.

3. New York Jets (3-11)

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Aaron Glenn

Odds: 11%

Current slot: 5th

Key Remaining Game: Week 16 at New Orleans

They are a mere 4.5-point favorite there before facing New England and Buffalo to wrap up the regular season. 

Desperation Factor: They possess a second first-round pick courtesy of the Colts, who are sliding substantially. There is a chance they end up with two selections in roughly the top 15. That would enable them to flex on the draft board to pursue a potential franchise QB even if they don't land a top-three selection organically. 

Prediction: Considering they're 3-4 since Week 8 and Justin Fields and/or Brady Cook would be fighting for their careers if in action, there is a good chance they pull at least one more win out of the hat to tumble out of the top five.

2. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

AP Photo/Samantha Chow

Kyler Murray

Odds: 2%

Current slot: 6th

Key Remaining Game: Week 16 vs. Atlanta

They're a small underdog against a pretty soft opponent at home before likely getting steamrolled on the road against the Bengals and Rams to close out the season. 

Desperation Factor: The Kyler Murray era has effectively run its course in Arizona, and while Jacoby Brissett has played quite well in place of the again-injured Murray, the 33-year-old is almost certainly not the long-term solution. This is a rebuild, and likely one without a franchise quarterback in place. Given that, the higher the first-rounder the better. But because they still have Murray and Brissett under contract and could be patient, they don't top this list. 

Prediction: Losers of six in a row (four of which have come by 19-plus points), I doubt they put up much of a fight again and end up with three wins but still settle for the fourth or fifth pick. 

1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

AP Photo/Candice Ward

Geno Smith

Odds: 41%

Current slot: 2nd

Key Remaining Game: Week 17 vs. New York Giants

They are about a three‑point underdog right now and could easily "accidentally" win this one at home, spoiling their chances of entering the offseason with the No. 1 pick.

Desperation Factor: It's obvious 35-year-old Geno Smith is a one-year bridge. A bridge to what? We're about to find out, and the ideal scenario for the Raiders has them with the pick of the quarterback litter atop April's draft. 

Prediction: They finish the job with losses to the Texans, Giants and Chiefs, and all eyes shift to them as the holder of the top pick entering the 2026 offseason. The question then becomes: Who will they take?