NFL MVP Race 2025-26 Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 16

The Buffalo Bills' win over the New England Patriots threw a dramatic twist in the NFL MVP odds.

Matthew Stafford enters Week 16 as a significant favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook over both Drake Maye and Josh Allen.

Stafford has a massive game of his own on Thursday against the Seattle Seahawks that could shift the NFC West into the Los Angeles Rams' favor.

Maye and Allen are not out of the MVP race yet, but they each need strong finishes and some help from Stafford's opponents.

Matthew Stafford (-300)

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Matthew Stafford is the clear NFL MVP favorite with three weeks left in the regular season.

Stafford is less than 300 yards from the 10th 4,000-yard campaign of his career. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 37.

The Rams quarterback has the opportunity to slam the door shut on his MVP competitors on Thursday night.

A commanding performance against the Seattle Seahawks might be enough to settle the MVP debate. At minimum, it would put the Rams in a terrific spot to win the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Drake Maye (+425)

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Drake Maye's MVP resume took a hit on Sunday because he and the New England Patriots couldn't close out the win over the Bills.

Maye's first-half performance at Gillette Stadium was MVP-worthy. Had that extended into the second half Maye might be the MVP favorite right now.

Instead, the Patriots are locked in a battle for the AFC East with the Bills and need to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

A strong performance on the national stage will benefit Maye, just like it would for Stafford on Thursday night.

One or two losses from the Rams would be nice, though, for Maye's MVP case since he sits behind Stafford in most passing categories.

Josh Allen (+550)

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Josh Allen's second-half heroics against the Patriots vaulted him back into the MVP conversation.

He still sits at a disadvantage compared to Stafford and Maye, but he is at least in contention with three games left.

Allen needs to win the AFC East with the Bills to be considered for a large chunk of first-place votes.

He doesn't have the same stats as Stafford and Maye, but if he leads Buffalo on a late-season charge to the AFC East title and a top-two seed in the conference, it would be viewed as a massive achievement.

Buffalo finishes with the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets, three winnable games for Allen and Co.

Prediction

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Stafford has the inside track to the MVP.

The Rams quarterback has the best all-around numbers of the three contenders and he is in charge of the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Los Angeles is showing no signs of slowing down, and if he beats Seattle without Davante Adams, it will only strengthen his MVP case.

Prediction: 1. Matthew Stafford, 2. Drake Maye, 3. Josh Allen