NFL Playoff Scenarios 2025-26, AFC, NFC Week 16 Bracket Picture and Predictions

The 2025-26 NFL postseason party just received its first RSVPs.

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams became the season's first teams to clinch playoff berths. Nothing else has been officially decided yet, though, save for the growing list of bottom-feeders who've been knocked out of postseason contention.

While things will inevitably change again, it's always good to get a snapshot of where things stand, so we'll update the playoff picture on both sides of the bracket. Then, we'll close with a fresh batch of postseason predictions.

AFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo

Division Leaders

1. x-Denver Broncos (12-2, AFC West)

2. New England Patriots (11-3, AFC East)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, AFC South)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, AFC North)

The Broncos' 34-26 takedown of the Packers on Sunday, keyed by four touchdown passes from Bo Nix, helped them lock up a playoff berth and took another step toward perhaps their first AFC West title since 2015. The Patriots had a chance to punch their own playoff ticket, but they couldn't protect a 21-point lead against Josh Allen's Bills.

Wild Card Teams

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)

6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)

7. Houston Texans (9-5)

It was a terrific Sunday for this tier, as all three scored either critical or decisive wins. The Chargers knocked the Chiefs out of playoff contention, the Bills stormed back against the Patriots and the Texans doubled up the Cardinals behind a three-score performance by C.J. Stroud.

The Chargers sit in the driver's seat for this race currently thanks to their superior conference record, but things are very much still up in the air. It's already worth circling a Dec. 27 clash between L.A. and Houston that could be loaded with seeding implications.

In the Hunt

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)

10. Miami Dolphins (6-7)

The Dolphins are hanging by a thread, but their presence could be felt in different ways. If they manage to knock off the Steelers on Monday night, they could give the Ravens a fighting chance to win the AFC North, which would be a wild development considering how grim things appeared during this group's 1-5 start.

Eliminated

11. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)

13. New York Jets (3-11)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

15. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

x - indicates clinched playoffs

NFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo

Division Leaders

1. x-Los Angeles Rams (11-3, NFC West)

2. Chicago Bears (10-4, NFC North)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, NFC East)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, NFC South)

The Rams' 41-34 win over the Lions helped them put a playoff ticket in their back pocket, but they'll now start seriously aiming at the NFC West crown. On Thursday, they'll travel to Seattle for what should be a thrilling matchup that's overloaded with seeding and divisional implications.

On the other end of the competitive spectrum, the Buccaneers' blown lead against the Falcons was offset by the Panthers' loss to the Saints, helping Tampa Bay retain NFC South control for now. But with the Bucs and Panthers tussling twice over the final three weeks, this race is far from finished.

Wild Card Teams

5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)

There is just no margin for error with this group, as the Packers were the latest to learn. Their loss to the Broncos sent them from the No. 2 seed down to the No. 7 line, although they at least have some breathing room over the Lions, whom they swept this season.

In the Hunt

8. Detroit Lions (8-6)

9. Carolina Panthers (7-7)

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

No one is this tier is feeling great (or even good) about their chances, but Carolina has something the others don't: control. Carolina's path to an NFC South crown is clear with two contests remaining against current leader Tampa Bay.

Eliminated

11. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)

12. Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

13. New Orleans Saints (4-10)

14. Washington Commanders (4-10)

15. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

16. New York Giants (2-12)

x - indicates clinched playoffs

Postseason Predictions

AP Photo

Not to deflate the NFL's down-the-stretch drama balloon, but our crystal ball can't envision major shocks in terms of who gets in and who gets denied entry. It does like the Panthers to chase down the Buccaneers if that does anything for you, but that might be as "surprising" as it gets.

The Super Bowl path could be much more entertaining, though.

There are a number of good teams in the mix, but is there a great one standing above the rest? Analytical models can't seem to spot one. No team has a 20 percent chance of winning it all based on The Athletic's Playoff Simulator, which likes—but doesn't love—the Rams (19 percent) and the Broncos (15 percent).

The Rams probably have the best resume, but impact wide receivers can cause problems for this secondary. The Broncos are close behind, but their passing offense can be erratic. Drop lower down the list, and the flaws become even more obvious.

It'd still be safest to select one of these teams, but safety isn't the same as accurate. Instead, we're seeing the stars finally align for the Bills, who no longer have to find their way around the obstacle that is Patrick Mahomes, as the Chiefs were eliminated and he was unfortunately lost to a torn ACL.

A red-hot Josh Allen (six passing touchdowns, one rushing score and zero turnovers his past two games) is the kind of dynamic talent capable of leading a championship charge. Buffalo has waited a long time for this (like, literally forever), but a franchise first Super Bowl title is finally coming—provided our crystal ball isn't steering us wrong, of course.