NFL Playoff Picture 2025-26 Bracket Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 14

The NFL always prides itself on parity, but this year is taking things to another level in that regard with just five weeks remaining in the 2025 regular season.

Heading into Week 14, six of the eight divisions have at least two teams within one game in the loss column of first place. Three divisions have two teams tied for first place.

The wild-card picture in both conferences is just as chaotic. All three AFC wild-card teams currently have an 8-4 record. The lowest-seeded team in the NFC playoffs right now are the San Francisco 49ers, who have as many wins as the No. 1 seed.

That No. 1 seed, by the way, is the Chicago Bears after a stunning Black Friday win over the reeling Philadelphia Eagles. They own the NFC's longest active winning streak at five games.

Here are the updated playoff scenarios after a chaotic week and going into Week 14.

Team Standings

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

AFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. New England Patriots (11-2; lead AFC East)

2. Denver Broncos (10-2; lead AFC West)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4; lead AFC Sorth)

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6; lead AFC North)

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

8. Houston Texans (7-5)

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

11. Miami Dolphins (5-7)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

13. New York Jets (3-9)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)

Eliminated

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)

16. Tennessee Titans (1-11)

NFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Chicago Bears (9-3; lead NFC North)

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3; lead NFC West)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4; lead NFC East)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5; lead NFC South)

Wild-Card Race

5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

8. Detroit Lions (7-5)

9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)

10. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)

12. Minnesota Vikings (4-8)

13. Arizona Cardinals (3-9; eliminated)

14. Washington Commanders (3-9)

Eliminated

15. New Orleans Saints (2-10)

16. New York Giants (2-11)

Playoff Clinching Scenarios

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

The earliest potential clinching scenario won't be until Week 15, which NFL consultant Joe Ferreira noted will mark the latest that the first teams can secure a postseason berth since the league added a bye week to the schedule in 1990.

Looking ahead to Week 15, the New England Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Buffalo Bills.

Playoff Elimination Scenarios

AP Photo/Melissa Tamez

Minnesota Vikings Elimination Scenarios

• Vikings loss vs. Washington Commanders
• or Vikings tie vs. Washington Commanders AND Green Bay Packers win/tie vs. Chicago Bears

One year after finishing tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the second-most wins in the NFL during the regular season, the Vikings' playoff hopes could end in the first week of December with a loss to the Washington Commanders.

There is also a scenario at play in which the Vikings-Commanders game ends in a tie and Minnesota is eliminated, but the simplest scenario for the team to keep hope alive for another week would be to win on Sunday.

Washington Commanders Elimination Scenarios

• Commanders loss/tie at Minnesota Vikings
• or Philadelphia Eagles win/tie at Los Angeles Chargers

The 2025 season for the Commanders has been a huge disappointment, with injuries to key players largely at the center of their struggles.

After reaching the NFC Championship Game last season, the Commanders could be eliminated from playoff contention as soon as Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. Even if they manage to win that game, the Philadelphia Eagles not losing on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers will knock them out.

Atlanta Falcons Elimination Scenarios

• Falcons loss vs. Seattle Seahawks
• or Falcons tie vs. Seattle Seahawks AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers win/tie vs. New Orleans Saints AND Green Bay Packers win/tie vs. Chicago Bears

There are few teams that have had a more bleak 2025 than the Falcons. Michael Penix Jr. has only made 12 starts through his first two seasons and will spend the offseason rehabbing from another major knee injury.

The Falcons could be eliminated from playoff contention as soon as Week 14, and they don't even have a first-round pick in the 2026 draft to look forward to. They will send their pick, currently No. 9 overall, to the Los Angeles Rams.

New York Jets Elimination Scenarios

• Jets loss/tie vs. Miami Dolphins
• or Houston Texans win at Kansas City Chiefs AND Buffalo Bills win/tie vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• or Houston Texans win at Kansas City Chiefs AND Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars ends in a tie
• or Buffalo Bills win/tie vs. Cincinnati Bengals AND Jacksonville Jaguars win/tie vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Jets have been playing respectable with three wins in their last five games after starting the season 0-7, but their playoff drought could officially extend to 15 years as soon as Sunday afternoon.

Cleveland Browns Elimination Scenarios

• Browns loss vs. Tennessee Titans

Week 14 at least presents a scenario in which the Browns could be favored going into a December game against a Tennessee Titans team that currently owns the NFL's worst record (1-11).

A loss would eliminate Cleveland from playoff contention for the second consecutive year and 24th time in 27 seasons since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999.