Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Bargain Buys, Sleepers for July 26
Let's face it: Everyone with a DraftKings account will employ Zack Greinke on Sunday.
Originally scheduled to start Friday, the Los Angeles Dodgers ace instead welcomed his first child to the world. Having a baby is one of few experiences more rewarding for a pitcher than facing the New York Mets, but he'll simply face them on Sunday instead.
According to Captain Obvious, the guy with a 1.30 ERA and 43.2 scoreless innings streak will have an astronomic usage rate against one of baseball's worst offenses, even after it caught fire for 15 runs on Saturday night during Zach Lee's MLB debut. Tournament players should fade Greinke, but the easy choice is often the correct one in cash contests.
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With everyone else on board, he won't carry anyone to success. Instead, it's all about the supporting cast of bargains surrounding the $13,000 hurler.
SP Mat Latos, Miami Marlins ($8,000) at San Diego
A steady, mid-level second starter, Mat Latos heads into his old stomping grounds on a roll. The 27-year-old righty has allowed three runs in his last trio of starts, accumulating seven strikeouts in back-to-back outings.
Although his 4.48 season ERA remains unimpressive, he sports a 3.32 fielding independent pitching (FIP) with a chance to deflate his ERA at Petco Park. Since returning from the disabled list in mid-June, Latos has registered a 2.72 ERA and 38 strikeouts through 39.2 innings.
SP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies ($5,600) at Cubs
Despite an impressive debut, Aaron Nola costs a minuscule $5,600 on Sunday. The opposing Jason Hammel also makes a sensational choice against the Philadelphia Phillies, but the Chicago Cubs have generated an MLB-worst 24.2 strikeout percentage and bottom-10 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
The 22-year-old newcomer looked polished against the Tampa Bay Rays, recording six punchouts with one walk and one run relinquished through six frames. He hardly needs to match Cole Hamels' no-hitter to hit value.
OF Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles ($4,100) at Tampa Bay
Considering his .952 OPS against left-handed pitching, Adam Jones constitutes a bargain at $4,100. Through four rocky starts back from Tommy John surgery, Matt Moore has allowed 25 hits, 10 walks and 15 runs during 18.2 innings.
All Baltimore Orioles stars are priced tamely, with the soaring Chris Davis at a discounted $3,500 and Manny Machado on sale for $4,000 amid a breakout campaign. Gamers might want to exploit the generous listings and stack big-name Baltimore bats, but make Jones a top priority.
2B Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,700) vs. Baltimore
Poor Logan Forsythe has yet to receive his proper due this season. The 28-year-old second baseman has engineered a career renaissance, hitting .279/.365/.432 with 10 home runs and seven stolen bases.
Among qualified second basemen, only three wield a higher wOBA:
| 1 | Jason Kipnis | .380 |
| 2 | Joe Panik | .360 |
| 3 | Brian Dozier | .359 |
| 4 | Logan Forsythe | .352 |
| 5 | Dustin Pedroia | .339 |
| 6 | DJ LeMahieu | .338 |
| 7 | Jose Altuve | .336 |
His production never vanished as skeptics anticipated, and he holds a .587 slugging percentage against lefties. Wei-Yin Chen hides a 4.09 FIP and 41.2 fly-ball percentage underneath his 2.86 ERA, so ride the underrated Forsythe against the overrated Chen.
3B Pablo Sandoval, Boston Red Sox ($2,700) vs. Detroit
Selected as a Saturday stacking choice, the Boston Red Sox mustered one run against the laboring Alfredo Simon. They now get another floundering Detroit Tigers lefty who gets pounded by lefties:
| 363 | .316 | .386 | .497 | .382 | 25.6 |
Since three sensational starts to open 2015, Shane Greene has allowed 55 earned runs through 54.1 innings. This again makes David Ortiz and Alejandro De Aza intriguing plays, but it's especially jarring to see Pablo Sandoval priced below $3,000.
A career .302/.355/.488 hitter against righties, he's hitting a solid .283 with seven homers against them during a wildly disappointing Boston initiation. He couldn't capitalize on a similarly tantalizing matchup against Simon, but don't let one game override the grand picture. Trust the process.
OF Ryan Raburn, Cleveland Indians ($2,300) vs. White Sox
After steering clear of Ryan Raburn against Chris Sale, he's safe to use a day later against fellow Chicago White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon. Opposing righties have a .373 wOBA against the erratic rookie, and Raburn costs pennies despite clobbering lefties.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs as of Saturday night.
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