Will Tarik Skubal Be Traded? 'Catastrophe' Scenario for Tigers Warned by MLB Agent

One of the biggest storylines in MLB right now is what the Detroit Tigers will do with Tarik Skubal as he heads into his final year of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency next offseason.

Speaking to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, one agent laid out a "catastrophe" scenario for the Tigers in which they hold onto Skubal through the trade deadline next summer and miss the playoffs.

"You cannot, under any circumstances, hold Skubal through the trade deadline and miss the playoffs. That would be a catastrophe," the agent explained.

The potential problem with keeping Skubal that late into the season is being able to recoup significant value for him in a trade. The last frontline starter on an expiring contract who was moved at or near the deadline was in 2021 when Max Scherzer went from the Washington Nationals to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

That deal comes with a caveat because the Dodgers also got Trea Turner, so they had to send their top two prospects (Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray) as part of the package that went back to Washington.

Another point of comparison is the February 2024 trade in which the Milwaukee Brewers sent Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles as he was entering his final year under team control. Milwaukee received a top-100 prospect(Joey Ortiz), a top-100 prospect from 2023 (D.L. Hall) and a 2024 first-round draft pick (No. 34 overall).

This is the dilemma that the Tigers face if they aren't going to make a serious run at trying to extend Skubal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network previously reported they offered him a four-year, $80 million extension after the 2024 season.

Heyman has also reported the "gap" between what Skubal wants and what the Tigers offered is around $250 million.

It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Tigers didn't move Skubal before the July 31 deadline if they aren't in the playoff race, but their potential return does decrease with each passing day during the season because he is moving closer to free agency.

Playing in the AL Central does make Detroit's path to the playoffs easier. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins are still in the very early stages of a full-scale rebuild. The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals are solid teams, but hardly imposing forces that intimidate the opposition.

Cleveland won the Central last season with 88 wins, the fewest of any division winner in MLB. The Tigers have made the playoffs as a wild card in each of the past two seasons, losing in the division series in five games both times.

Skubal is a game-changer for any team in MLB. The 29-year-old has won back-to-back AL Cy Young awards with a 2.30 ERA and 469 strikeouts in 387.2 innings since the start of 2024. His 12.6 FanGraphs' wins above replacement during that span are 1.5 more than any other pitcher in MLB.