Making the Case for Every 2025 NFL Playoff Contender and Pretender

With seven weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL season, 19 teams are either in a playoff spot or within a game of one. 

Basically, if you're 4-6 or better, you're in it. 

That group would include the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys, who are a touch further back but remain in the picture at 4-6 and 4-5-1, respectively. 

So, that brings us to 21 potential contenders or pretenders. Let's assess each in quick-hit fashion on the brink of the home stretch.

New England Patriots 

AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper

Drake Maye

Case for Contender: Behind MVP favorite Drake Maye at quarterback, New England has won eight straight games to take a semi-commanding lead in the AFC East. 

Case for Pretender: The vast majority of the Patriots' wins have come against soft opponents, and a roster that lacks talent compared to other contenders could have a difficult time sustaining this.

Verdict: Pretender, for now. This changes if they beat the Bills and Ravens next month, but that'll be a tough task for a team that is still completing a rebuild. The Pats are a year away, but they are on the right track.

Buffalo Bills 

AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes

Josh Allen

Case for Contender: Behind reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen, they've been dominant outside of a few odd blips. 

Case for Pretender: One blip is a home loss to the Patriots, likely forcing them to win in Foxborough next month in order to survive and win the division. 

Verdict: Contender. They're a tad off, but so are the Chiefs and Ravens, which are the only AFC teams that can match Buffalo in terms of talent and experience. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Matt Freed

Aaron Rodgers

Case for Contender: The defense has moments of utter domination, and you never know with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers under center. The Ravens and Bengals have also given them an opening in the AFC North. 

Case for Pretender: Those defensive performances seem to come and go, Rodgers is on the brink of 42 years of age and dealing with a wrist injury, and the Ravens have stormed back with a healthy Lamar Jackson. 

Verdict: Pretender. I don't see any reason why this team is more of a threat than the ones that failed to win playoff games in each of the last eight seasons. The Steelers are 2-3 in their last five games and could be destroyed by an upcoming run against Chicago, Buffalo and Baltimore. 

Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

Lamar Jackson

Case for Contender: Injuries destroyed the first quarter or so of their season, but the Ravens haven't lost in over a month and should be heavily favored in each of their next four games. The path to a third straight division title is clear. 

Case for Pretender: A 1-5 start leaves no margin for error and probably means they will have to win some road playoff games to finally get to a Super Bowl. That hasn't been the formula in the past. 

Verdict: Contender* (note the asterisk). This remains a team with a ceiling short of the Super Bowl, especially because Jackson and the offense remain out of sync. They've been bailed out by the defense and will likely be in trouble against Buffalo or Denver in a January road game. 

Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Martin Meissner

Daniel Jones

Case for Contender: Driven by Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and a solid defense, this well-built team has flown under the radar with a 6-0 home record to pull away in the AFC South. 

Case for Pretender: Does anyone really trust Jones? They've also faced the second-easiest schedule in football this season, but their remaining strength of schedule is the toughest in the NFL. 

Verdict: Pretender. In the next month, look for them to be exposed in road matchups with the Chiefs, Jaguars and Seahawks. They may still survive to win the division but are likely one-and-done in the playoffs. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Trevor Lawrence

Case for Contender: The talent is there on both sides of the ball, and they would be riding a three-game winning streak if not for a late-game collapse against Houston in Week 10.

Case for Pretender: That collapse spoke volumes, as the Jaguars consistently fall short of getting the most out of their talent. 

Verdict: Pretender. The Jags are the league's most Jekyll and Hyde team, which is not the formula in January. It's tough to have a lot of confidence in Trevor Lawrence at this point. 

Houston Texans

AP Photo/Eric Gay

C.J. Stroud

Case for Contender: They have the league's top-ranked scoring defense, and there's no question how dominant quarterback C.J. Stroud can be when he's on his game. 

Case for Pretender: Stroud has rarely been on said game since the start of the 2024 season, and they've already dug themselves a hole as a third-place team at 5-5. 

Verdict: Pretender. It's difficult to imagine this inconsistent and deeply flawed squad surviving an upcoming stretch against the Bills, Colts and Chiefs. Major changes will be needed in the offseason. 

Denver Broncos

AP Photo/Bart Young

Bo Nix

Case for Contender: They're technically the top seed in the NFL at 9-2 following a statement Week 11 victory over long-dominant division rival Kansas City. For the second year running, the defense is elite. 

Case for Pretender: While Bo Nix is a stellar young starting quarterback, the offense has sometimes been inconsistent if not erratic. The unit recently turned it over five times in a three-week span. 

Verdict: Contender. Last year was their "not quite ready" experience. This year, they're lining themselves up to enter the playoffs as the favorite in the AFC. The offense just needs to iron some things out, but we know the Broncos have it in them. 

Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Justin Herbert

Case for Contender: Jim Harbaugh has a championship track record, and he's got an elite quarterback and a strong defense behind him. 

Case for Pretender: Quarterback Justin Herbert is stuck behind an offensive line that is in abysmal shape. The Chargers have benefited from a weak schedule thus far but could be exposed by a difficult run down the stretch. 

Verdict: Pretender. That post-bye run includes the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Broncos. Following a Week 11 slaughtering at the hands of the Jaguars, I get the sense the ship is sinking for the 2025 Bolts. 

Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Patrick Mahomes

Case for Contender: They're a juggernaut, having made five of the last six Super Bowls thanks to their future Hall of Fame coach-quarterback combo. And despite a rough start to 2025, they remain in the thick of things with a fairly soft schedule down the stretch. 

Case for Pretender: The juggernaut is a mere 5-5 following a critical Week 11 loss to the Broncos, leaving them essentially four games out of first place with seven games remaining. 

Verdict: Contender. The Chiefs have the third-best scoring margin (plus-73) in the conference, as they rank in the top 10 in terms of both scoring offense and defense. The breaks haven't gone their way, but don't be surprised if they finish out the schedule 6-1 or 7-0. 

Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Jalen Hurts

Case for Contender: They won it last year, and an increasingly dominant defense has them back in the top spot in the NFC playoff race at 8-2. 

Case for Pretender: The offense continues to lack consistency and big-play ability compared to past championship seasons.

Verdict: Contender. Repeating ain't easy, but there's no question Philadelphia will again be in the picture deep into January. For the second year in a row, it's surging at the perfect time. 

Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Matt Patterson

Dak Prescott

Case for Contender: They have contender talent, as we saw when a similar core won 12 games two years ago. And there's still plenty of room for a wild-card run from a team that still has just five losses. 

Case for Pretender: Everything else, including their losing record and negative scoring margin. Throw in that they're about to face the Eagles, Chiefs and Lions in consecutive weeks, and it's not easy to find a path. 

Verdict: Pretender. Altogether, the Cowboys have won just 11 of their last 28 games. 

Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

Caleb Williams

Case for Contender: It appears to be coming together for a team that has lost just once since Week 2. The offense has found balance and is on a good trajectory under Ben Johnson, while the defense has become one of the top playmaking units in the league (21 takeaways in their last eight games). 

Case for Pretender: The schedule has been soft and is about to get a lot tougher. The Bears were easily disposed of by the Ravens last month, and they nearly choked in Minnesota in Week 11. 

Verdict: Pretender. This team is strong and on the right track, but there are still too many flaws for the Bears to survive facing the Steelers, Eagles, Packers (twice), 49ers and Lions between now and the finish line. 

Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Jordan Love

Case for Contender: There are few holes on a balanced and talented roster, and this team now has the experience to make a run. 

Case for Pretender: They've been far from dominant pretty much all year. They're also just 4-3-1 since a 2-0 start, and they nearly lost to the Giants in Week 11. 

Verdict: Contender*. The Packers get an asterisk like the Ravens. Can the up-and-down and oft-injured Jordan Love string together multiple January victories over elite opponents? Not sure I see it right now. 

Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Jared Goff

Case for Contender: On paper, a Lions team that went 15-2 in 2024 might be the most talented squad in the NFL, despite the fact that they're 6-4. 

Case for Pretender: Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. That's what they've done in their last six games. Following a Week 11 defeat in Philadelphia, the Lions are now 0-3 against the Eagles in the Dan Campbell era. 

Verdict: Contender. Something isn't clicking, with defensive injuries factoring in. That said, they're still right there in the NFC North, and the Packers and Bears are more flawed and less talented. Maybe this adversity will do Detroit good compared to last year. 

Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

J.J. McCarthy

Case for Contender: They went 14-3 last year and have a similar core, so it would have felt odd to exclude them. 

Case for Pretender: The offense has been stuck in neutral for much of the season. Injuries factor in, but J.J. McCarthy has struggled regardless. The defense has also seemingly lost something this season. 

Verdict: Pretender. They were probably worse than their record in 2024, and now McCarthy is going through it while the rest of the roster regresses to the mean. It would be a shock if they made the playoffs at this point. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes

Baker Mayfield

Case for Contender: Despite a slew of injuries, they started 6-2 to take a commanding lead in the NFC South. 

Case for Pretender: They've come out of their bye with back-to-back tough losses, bringing that lead down to half a game over Carolina. The defense is vulnerable and Baker Mayfield is a wild card with 17 turnover-worthy plays. 

Verdict: Pretender. The schedule is generous enough the rest of the way that they probably hold on to win the division for a fifth year in a row, but I still don't believe in Mayfield when push comes to shove, and the rest of the roster has some glaring weak spots. 

Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Bryce Young

Case for Contender: They're 5-2 in their last seven games and have a shot at both the division and a wild-card spot as a result. 

Case for Pretender: The offense disappears far too often, as Bryce Young still has a long way to go and the support isn't great. The defense also has talent limitations, and they've loaded up on a weak schedule. 

Verdict: Pretender. Deep down, even the Panthers and their fans know this. It's all about progress, and there has been plenty of that. This is a one-and-done wild-card team at best. 

Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Matthew Stafford

Case for Contender: The first-place Rams rank in the top six in terms of scoring offense and defense, with 37-year-old Matthew Stafford putting together the season of his career. 

Case for Pretender: The defense no longer has an Aaron Donald-like dominant presence, and Stafford could have trouble sustaining this considering his track record. 

Verdict: Contender. The Rams have reloaded with incredible success after dumping a ton of highly-paid veterans in the wake of their 2021 Super Bowl win. They're well-coached, well-quarterbacked, and the D is greater than the sum of its parts. I'm finally a believer. 

Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Katie Chin

Sam Darnold

Case for Contender: Like the Rams, they rank in the top six on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Sam Darnold is having a superb season, and they're awesome on the road (wins away from home will likely be necessary in January). 

Case for Pretender: They've lost close games to the 49ers, Buccaneers and Rams. What's worse, Darnold has now turned the ball over nine times in the last four games to bring his season total to a tied-for-league-high 14. 

Verdict: Pretender. It again appears Darnold is fading just when it matters most, and the Seahawks don't have the talent to survive that in a tough division. 

San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Samantha Chow

Brock Purdy

Case for Contender: Despite again being badly damaged by injuries, they're 7-4 and rank decently on both sides of the ball as franchise quarterback Brock Purdy returns from injury. 

Case for Pretender: Those injuries will still be hard to overcome for a team that hasn't won back-to-back games since September. 

Verdict: Pretender. A soft remaining schedule will get them in, but Purdy isn't the guy with this current surrounding cast, and the defense has suffered too much loss.