Tarik Skubal Trade Landing Spots amid Rumored $250M Contract Gap with Tigers
In November, Tarik Skubal is going to be announced as the AL Cy Young Award winner, making him the first Junior Circuit pitcher to repeat as winner of the honor since Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.
Unfortunately for Skubal, whatever meeting he has with members of the media to celebrate winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards will likely turn into a discussion about his future with the Detroit Tigers.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week the Tigers and Skubal are "close to $250 million" apart in extension talks, with 2026 set to be his contract year. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press added that the team offered him a four-year extension worth less than $100 million last offseason, which he rejected.
Let's be clear: the Tigers need to make this work. Skubal, 28, has been the best pitcher in baseball by far over the last two seasons, with FanGraphs saying he has the top marks in terms of ERA (2.30), FIP (2.47) and WAR (12.6) since the start of the 2024 campaign.
Within the last decade, the Tigers carried a top-five payroll, with Spotrac saying they had the fifth-highest mark in 2016. But since Mike Illitch died in 2017, the Tigers—under Chris Illitch—haven't spent in nearly that same way. That's partially because they've had a younger team, but it's clear Chris hasn't had the same desire to spend on the club as his father did.
Letting Skubal go at the height of his powers would arguably be worse than the Tigers losing Max Scherzer in his prime considering the former is more accomplished than the latter was at the time of his free agency.
But if the Tigers aren't prepared to spend to keep Skubal—and all indications are they aren't—there is a case to be made for trading him this offseason. You'll get a way larger return than if he leaves in free agency after declining a qualifying offer next winter. It would be president of baseball operations Scott Harris making the best of a bad situation.
So, as wild as it sounds, let's take a look at some potential landing spots for Skubal if the Tigers decide to shop their ace this winter.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
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This is a long shot, but as Tigers fans know, Dave Dombrowski loves to make huge deals.
Acquiring Skubal to join a rotation with Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler would give the Phillies a rotation that could rival their vaunted 2011 quartet of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, particularly if Aaron Nola bounces back next season.
The Phillies would almost certainly need to include Andrew Painter, the organization's No. 1 prospect, in a deal to land Skubal. Not only was Painter off the table in trade talks this summer, but even prior to that when the Phillies tried to acquire Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox.
That probably won't change, especially if the Phillies couldn't work out an extension with Skubal on the way in the door.
Still, the Phillies are on this list because they have young prospects in Painter, Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller who could entice the Tigers. Alec Bohm is a change-of-scenery candidate who could make sense as a secondary piece going back to Detroit if it isn't comfortable with Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Zach McKinstry at the hot corner next season.
Again, this isn't likely. The Phillies are an aging team that needs a fresh wave of young talent. Trading any combination of Painter, Crawford or Miller would cut into that. There's only one Skubal, though.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
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If the Blue Jays want to make a second consecutive deep postseason run, they're going to need to address their pitching staff this offseason.
Here's a look at the uncertainty they have:
- Chris Bassitt, who logged 170.1 regular-season innings, will become a free agent.
- 41-year-old Max Scherzer will be a free agent after posting a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts this past season.
- Shane Bieber has a $16 million player option he'll presumably pick up, but you never know.
Though Toronto won an AL-best 94 games during the regular season, they don't necessarily have an ideal Game 1 starter. Kevin Gausman is probably more of a fit to start Game 2 or 3. Trey Yesavage is an exciting young pitcher, but he can't be expected to seize that role yet. Skubal would give the Blue Jays an advantage in any Game 1 matchup.
The problem for the Blue Jays is that unless they would be willing to include Yesavage in a trade, they probably don't have the young talent to pull off this type of deal.
The Blue Jays need an ace and are a franchise willing to take big swings, but they may have a better chance of signing Skubal as a free agent than acquiring him via trade.
5. Baltimore Orioles
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Two seasons ago, Mike Elias and the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes before his contract year. He finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting, serving as the ace of a team that won 91 games.
After the season, the O's collected draft compensation when Burnes—who had declined a qualifying offer—left to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Why couldn't the Orioles follow that blueprint again?
Baltimore is coming off of a disastrous 75-87 season. They're going to need to add multiple starting pitchers this offseason—while hoping Kyle Bradish stays healthy—to return to contention in 2026.
For a team that seemed destined to run the sport this decade just a couple years ago, though, what would be a bigger statement of trying to get back on track than acquiring Skubal to pair with Trevor Rogers at the top of its rotation?
Samuel Basallo isn't going anywhere, and MLB Pipeline says outfielder Dylan Beavers (No. 83) is the only other top-100 prospect in Baltimore's system right now.
To complete a trade, Detroit would have to be really high on some combination of the other prospects in Baltimore's system—such as outfielders Ike Irish and Enrique Bradfield Jr.—and a piece or two on their MLB roster, like Colton Cowser or Coby Mayo.
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4. New York Yankees
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It's not hard to picture Skubal in pinstripes. It would be hard to picture opposing teams doing much offensively against the Yankees next season if Brian Cashman acquired Skubal and got back a healthy Garrett Cole to go with Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.
To complete a trade for Skubal, the Yankees would probably have to include either playoff hero Cam Schlittler or former AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, and then some.
It might be a tough pill to swallow to make that trade for only one guaranteed year of Skubal, especially after the Yankees watched Juan Soto leave under similar circumstances after the 2024 season.
With that said, do you think there's any part of Cashman that regrets the Soto trade? He finished third in AL MVP voting in his lone season with the Yankees, and hit a home run that sent them to the World Series. Soto's single campaign with the Yankees was a rousing success, and Skubal would likely be the same way.
Not only would the Yankees be trading for Skubal prevent the crosstown-rival Mets from getting him, but it could also set up a Soto-esque showdown after the season for Skubal in free agency between the two teams.
3. San Diego Padres
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Can you ever rule A.J. Preller out when it comes to making a major trade?
Beyond the fact that he is the most aggressive executive in the sport today, the Padres are going to have a need in their starting rotation.
They'll likely extend qualifying offers to both Dylan Cease and Michael King, but both will probably decline it and sign for more total money in free agency.
If the Padres aren't going to bring back Cease and/or King, Nick Pivetta would be pretty lonely atop their rotation given how poorly Yu Darvish performed in his age-38 season.
If the Padres hadn't traded Leo De Vries to acquire Mason Miller, he could have easily headlined this type of trade. As is, MLB Pipeline says the Padres have two top-100 prospects in catcher Ethan Salas and the recently-drafted Kruz Schoolcraft. It's unclear if San Diego would be able to put together the type of trade package it would take to land Skubal.
Preller is such a wheeler-and-deal, though, that it's hard to rule the Padres out, especially since they'll have a need for an ace.
2. Boston Red Sox
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The aforementioned Crochet delivered a dominant performance for the Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALWCS against the New York Yankees, striking out 11 and allowing just four hits and one run over 7.2 innings pitched.
Despite that, the Red Sox lost Games 2 and 3 at Yankee Stadium, sending them home. They need another big arm to pair with Crochet atop the rotation.
Why not the guy who is going to prevent Crochet's first season in Boston from ending in an AL Cy Young Award?
Boston has $21.05 million coming off of the books from Walker Buehler, and it's possible Lucas Giolito—who made $19 million in 2025—will opt out and depart in free agency. From a financial perspective, the Red Sox could afford to add Skubal.
It's unclear if the Tigers would be interested in Kristian Campbell, but Marcelo Mayer is ready to take over on a full-time basis at the MLB level somewhere in the infield. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle are two intriguing young lefties that could also entice the Tigers.
All of this will come down to who wants to give up significant prospect capital for only one guaranteed year of Skubal. It remains to be seen if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow would be interested in doing so.
Boston checks off a lot of boxes, though.
1. New York Mets
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New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns is tremendous at finding value on the margins in terms of starting pitching. But what they desperately need is a true Game 1 postseason starter, and Skubal would give them that.
Skubal is a showman, one who would thrive on the big stage in New York. He may decide he wants to test free agency regardless of where he spends next season, but there's little doubt owner Steve Cohen would be willing to write the largest check for him after 2026 if he helps them rebound from a second-half collapse in 2025.
It seems unlikely the Mets would trade Nolan McLean, but two of their other young starters—Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong—could be part of a trade. It would also be interesting to know if the Tigers, who have made the playoffs in consecutive years, would try to pry David Peterson or Kodai Senga away in a trade return so they could contend in 2026.
Should the Tigers consider offers for Skubal this offseason, the Mets' mix of need, young pitching and financial might would make them the heavy favorites.
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