Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Tips, Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive

With just over a day to go before the 2025 NFL season gets underway, many fans are preparing for four months of fantasy matchups, DFS games, parlays and wagers. Others are prepping for survivor pool adventures that could end in literally any given week.

Unfortunately, a few players will inevitably be knocked from survivor pools in the coming days.

Week 1 is notoriously difficult to predict since rosters aren't the same as they were in 2024 and slow starts are a thing—survivor participants haven't forgotten about the Cincinnati Bengals blowing it against the New England Patriots last season.

Here, you'll find a few tips and tricks for navigating a survivor pool in 2025. You'll also find top picks for Week 1, using the latest odds as a guideline.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

General Survivor Tips for Week 1

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Bills QB Josh Allen

If you've never participated in a survivor pool before, now's the perfect time to jump in. Most pools follow a similar formula in which players pick one team each week to win. If their team loses, they're out. The caveat? Most pools only allow a team to be picked once per season.

This means, of course, that players can get through an entire campaign while only picking 18 of 32 teams. That's fortunate because they can avoid flat-out bad teams that are more than likely to lose any given matchup.

Of course, there aren't 18 elite teams that are going to win more often than not. An issue specific to the early season is that we don't yet know who the best and worst teams truly are.

While it can be painful to pick top contenders early in the season, that's exactly what players should be doing. Players should also look to avoid tough matchups while circling favorable ones later in the year.

The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point favorites against the Baltimore Ravens this week. While both teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, why gamble on either of them in Week 1 when "safer" matchups are looming.

In Week 2, Baltimore will host a Cleveland Browns team that won only three games last season. The Bills will host the rebuilding New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

It's also wise to avoid short-week games when possible, though that won't be a factor in Week 1.

Trust the Broncos over the Titans

AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman

Broncos QB Bo Nix

The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night in a game that the Eagles should win. The defending champs remain the team to beat, and the Cowboys got worse with last week's Micah Parsons trade, but fans may want to hold off on Philly.

Thursday's game won't be on a short week, but it will be in prime time against a familiar opponent. Those are factors that could lead to an unexpected result. Philly is an 8.5-point favorite but isn't as safe of a play as one might think—it also has better matchups against the New York Giants (twice) within the first half of the year.

Instead of Philadelphia, trust the Denver Broncos, who are 7.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans.

While Tennessee does boast a talented young quarterback in Cam Ward, it'll be putting him up against one of the NFL's top defenses. The Broncos ranked second in yards per carry allowed, second in net yards per pass attempts allowed, seventh in yards allowed and third in points allowed last season.

Ward will have to play exceptionally well for the Titans to keep pace with Denver, which 10 games in 2024 and upgraded its roster in the offseason. That could happen, but so could any other upset this week. Now is probably the best time to bet against Ward in 2025.

Consider the Cardinals in New Orleans

AP Photo/Rusty Jones

Cardinals RB James Conner

Players who decide to punt on the Broncos—they have enticing matchups with the New York Jets and Giants in Weeks 6 and 7—should consider the Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) over the New Orleans Saints.

Trusting the Cardinals on the road after they posted a 2-6 away record in 2024 might seem counterintuitive. However, this is probably the most favorable matchup Arizona will see all season.

The Saints have multiple holes on their roster, a defense that ranked 30th overall last season and a ton of uncertainty at quarterback. Spencer Rattler is set to start in Week 1, but he'll be on a short leash with rookie Tyler Shough waiting on deck.

Arizona's new-look pass rush should prevent Rattler from ever getting comfortable. James Conner, Trey Benson, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' rushing attack should wear down a Saints defense that ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed last season.

Now's a great time to get your Arizona pick out of the way.

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