Week 1 NFL Picks and Early Odds to Exploit for 2025 Opening Schedule

The opening week of the NFL season often feels like a strange one. Teams often come out of the gate playing sloppily, and Week 1 upsets often follow as a result.

The Cincinnati Bengals certainly haven't forgotten last year's Week 1 upset loss to the New England Patriots, a defeat that likely cost them a postseason berth.

Other early "upsets" prove to be anything but, as a few playoff contenders usually emerge from the previous year's crop of bad teams. In early September, it's impossible to pinpoint who those surprise contenders will be.

Of course, all of the uncertainty can lead to favorable lines that can be exploited. You'll find a few of our favorite Week 1 plays here.

*Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook.

Chiefs -3 at Chargers

AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Divisional games in prime time are tricky to predict and often best to avoid. However, there are a couple of reasons to back the defending AFC champions in this one.

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs will be on the road. They'll also be incredibly prepared to face the rival Los Angeles Chargers after Patrick Mahomes and several of the starters saw significant preseason work.

The other factor is the absence of standout left tackle Rashawn Slater for the Chargers. Kansas only recorded 39 sacks last season, but it also ranked seventh in yards per carry allowed. Jim Harbaugh will likely struggle to play his brand of football against the Chiefs with Slater (knee) out for the year.

Travis Kelce also figures to be a major factor in Friday's game with Rashee Rice serving a six-game suspension. Here's a look at his Week 1 props, via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Los Angeles should make this a low-scoring game and keep things relatively close, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be eager to erase the bad taste of their Super Bowl LIX loss. As long as the line hovers around a field goal, Kansas City is the safe play.

Steelers -3 at Jets

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers starters didn't see a notable amount of preseason work—Rodgers didn't see any—which could be an issue on the road against the new Aaron Glenn-coached New York Jets.

Glenn, the Detroit Lions' former defensive coordinator, should have the Jets playing the sort of sound defensive football they played just a couple of years ago.

However, Pittsburgh has also had an extended amount of time to scheme up ways to stop current Jets starter and former Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. Mike Tomlin knows exactly where Fields' strengths and weaknesses lie and how to exploit his limitations.

The same could be said for the Jets and Rodgers, though Rodgers has a lot more experience adapting to defensive hurdles. If Pittsburgh's defense—which ranked eighth in points allowed last season—can stop Fields from running wild as a rusher, the Steelers should have a decided edge.

The line is low enough now to favor Pittsburgh on the road, though if creeps closer toward a touchdown, fans might want to simply steer clear from the game entirely.

Panthers and Jaguars over 46.5 Points

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Panthers QB Bryce Young

There are probably about two dozen casual NFL fans circling this week's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars as a must-watch game. However, it has the potential to be a heck of a lot of fun.

The Panthers have surrounded quarterback Bryce Young with a better supporting cast than he had in 2024, a campaign he finished strong. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have paired quarterback Trevor Lawrence with a creative offensive coach in Liam Coen.

With Panthers and Jaguars defenses that ranked 32nd and 27th in points allowed last season, respectively, this game has the potential to be a legitimate track meet between Young and Lawrence.

With new weapons like Panthers rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Jaguars rookie wideout Travis Hunter, Carolina running back Rico Dowdle and Jacksonville back Bhayshul Tuten also involved, this could end up being one of the higher-scoring games of the opening schedule.

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.