Fantasy Impact on Bijan Robinson, Penix Jr., Falcons Offense After OT McGary's Injury

The fantasy value for Atlanta Falcons standout Bijan Robinson and second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. could be negatively impacted by the absence of starting right tackle Kaleb McGary.

Head coach Raheem Morris told reporters on Friday that McGary will miss "significant time" due to a knee injury suffered in Wednesday's practice.

Morris said there's a chance McGary could end up on injured reserve, which would keep him out for at least the first four games of the regular season. Elijah Wilkinson, who has appeared in 79 games over the past eight seasons, will likely step in as the starter.

The right side of Atlanta's offensive line still has Chris Lindstrom at guard. He finished the 2024 season as the highest-graded guard in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.

Even without McGary for at least a few weeks, Robinson's value should remain high. The Falcons led the NFL in running back yards before contact (1.17) last season, despite ranking 20th in ESPN's run block win rate.

That speaks to how dominant Robinson is even when the blocking in front of him isn't operating at a high level. The 23-year-old has averaged 1,675 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns in his first two seasons. He is going in fantasy drafts as the No. 2 pick after Ja'Marr Chase, and there's no reason to think he won't be a dominant force in 2025.

Penix's fantasy value was already questionable because he's still an unknown after starting just three games as a rookie. He completed just 58.1 percent of his attempts (61-of-105) with as many touchdowns as interceptions (three).

Losing the starting right tackle takes on more importance for the Falcons because Penix is left-handed, so McGary was protecting his blind side.

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson does a great job of creating quick throws for his quarterbacks to get rid of the ball when opposing teams bring pressure. They led the NFL in average time to throw (2.27 seconds) when defenses blitzed.

When opposing teams didn't send pressure, the Falcons ranked 18th in sack rate. They finished 18th overall in pass block win rate last season.

The scouting reports for Penix coming out of college praised his desire to attack deep down the field because he is very accurate on those types of throws, but you need pass protection to give receivers time to get downfield.

Penix was only sacked three times in the three games he started, but the opposing defenses were the New York Giants without Dexter Lawrence, Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers.

Per FantasyPros, Penix is being drafted as the QB24. He is ahead of Bryce Young, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers. That feels about right given how little we know about him as an NFL player at this point, on top of the questions at right tackle without McGary.

Unless you play in a two-quarterback league, Penix isn't a player you need to think about drafting right now when you could get Young or Tua Tagovailoa around the same spot that he is coming off the board.