Every NFL Team's Biggest X-Factor Heading Into 2025 Season

The NFL preseason is far from over, and many roster moves will be made in the coming weeks. However, most teams know where their biggest strengths and weaknesses reside, at least in theory.

One fascinating aspect of the NFL is the reality that surprise names can change how things unfold in the regular season. A year ago, for example, hopes were high for rookie quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. They were two of the biggest X-factors of the 2024 season who delivered very different outcomes.

One QB fell short of expectations and watched his team struggle, while the other exceeded forecasts and led his team to a conference title game.

Every year, we see teams' fortunes hinge on the performances of less-proven players like rookies, offseason additions and those stepping into larger roles.

The X-factors on this list aren't established stars just yet, but the successes and failures of these players and position groups will determine much during the 2025 season.

AFC East

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman

The Buffalo Bills made wide receiver Keon Coleman their first pick in the 2024 draft, hoping he could replace Stefon Diggs as Josh Allen's go-to target.

Unfortunately, things didn't go according to plan, and Buffalo ended up acquiring Amari Cooper ahead of the trade deadline.

This year, the Bills need Coleman to emerge in a big way. Allen is the reigning MVP, but he needs a stronger supporting cast to carry the team to a Super Bowl.

A second-year leap from the Florida State product would help provide that and may be necessary for the Bills to be truly elite. While the team did add Josh Reynolds to the receiver room, it parted with Cooper and has Khalil Shakir dealing with a high-ankle sprain.

Miami Dolphins: OT Patrick Paul

One can argue whether Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a legitimate NFL star. But it's harder to argue his health won't have a substantial impact on the upcoming campaign.

When the 27-year-old has been healthy, he's been among the league's most prolific passers. When he hasn't, the Dolphins offense has been hamstrung.

This is why the performance of second-year offensive tackle Patrick Paul will be tied to Miami's success or lack thereof. He started just three games as a rookie but is now expected to replace the retired Terron Armstead as the Dolphins' full-time left tackle.

New England Patriots: OT Will Campbell

The New England Patriots aren't likely to find 2025 success without a breakthrough sophomore campaign from quarterback Drake Maye.

The 2024 third overall pick had one of the league's worst supporting casts last season but was still a Pro Bowl alternate.

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is the obvious X-factor in the New England offense, as he's returning from a torn ACL. Of course, the four-time Pro Bowler is a known commodity who should perform well if healthy.

There's a little more uncertainty surrounding rookie tackle Will Campbell. The seventh-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's final big board has loads of upside but no NFL experience. His ability to protect Maye's blind side will play a massive role in the quarterback's Year 2 development.

New York Jets: QB Justin Fields

There's no other way to describe the New York Jets' upcoming season other than this: If Justin Fields stumbles, they will probably be chasing a high draft pick and a shot at a 2026 rookie quarterback.

Fields flashed elite dual-threat ability during his time with the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers but has never established himself as a steady signal-caller. He's been "up and down as a passer" in camp, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t On3's Barkley Truax).

If Fields can't settle in and perform like an above-average signal-caller, new head coach Aaron Glenn and new GM Darren Mougey will be back at the quarterback drawing board in the offseason.

AFC South

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Anthony Richardson

Houston Texans: OT Cam Robinson

The Houston Texans have won the AFC South in back-to-back seasons, but their offense wasn't quite as efficient in 2024 as it was the previous year. An offensive line that allowed 54 sacks was a big part of the problem.

The Texans orchestrated a significant offensive-line rebuild this offseason, and no new player is likely to be as important as left tackle Cam Robinson. He's been given the challenge of replacing five-time Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil, who was traded to the Washington Commanders in March.

While Robinson has 101 starts on his resume, he's never been considered a top-tier lineman and was ranked just 56th overall among tackles by Pro Football Focus last season. He'll need to do a reasonable impression of Tunsil for Houston's new-look line to succeed.

Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson

In 2023, the Indianapolis Colts used the fourth overall pick on Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. In the two years since, injuries and inefficient play have limited him to 15 starts and a 67.8 quarterback rating.

The 23-year-old is now in the middle of a quarterback battle with Daniel Jones and has experienced another setback. After missing part of the offseason with a shoulder issue, he suffered a finger injury early in Indy's preseason opener.

If he can't get healthy, stay healthy, fend off Jones and start playing up to his draft status, the Colts will be looking for a new QB in 2026—and possibly a new head coach and general manager as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars: TE Brenton Strange

Rookie receiver/corner Travis Hunter is an obvious candidate here, as his ability to play on both sides of the ball will greatly impact the Jacksonville Jaguars' season.

However, they don't necessarily need the Colorado product to thrive in two positions to find success.

Jacksonville does, however, need to see a jump from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. As a receiver, Hunter can help the 2021 No. 1 overall pick and new head coach Liam Coen deliver results.

One could argue, though, that third-year tight end Brenton Strange is an even bigger X-factor.

The 24-year-old is taking over full-time for Evan Engram, who racked up 2,094 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in three seasons with Jacksonville. He became one of Lawrence's favorite targets when healthy and won't be easy to replace.

Strange showed promise (441 yards, 2 TDs) as a 10-game starter last year, but he'll need to give Jacksonville a new Pro Bowl tight end for Lawrence to fully flourish.

Tennessee Titans: QB Cam Ward

The Tennessee Titans are not expected to be serious playoff contenders in 2025, but they will have chances to improve in Year 2 under head coach Brian Callahan.

For that to happen, though, they'll need a good campaign from rookie first overall pick Cam Ward.

Barring injury, he will be Tennessee's starter throughout the season. That appeared to be the plan even before Will Levis underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.

While the rookie doesn't need to deliver numerous wins to be considered a success, he will need to show promise and growth over the course of the year. Otherwise, Callahan will quickly find himself on the hot seat.

AFC North

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Keaton Mitchell

Baltimore Ravens: RB Keaton Mitchell

Last year, the Baltimore Ravens paired bruising ball-carrier Derrick Henry with superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson to forge one of the league's most dynamic ground games.

If third-year change-of-pace back Keaton Mitchell can stay healthy and complement Henry and Jackson, a great rushing attack could be borderline indefensible.

The 23-year-old averaged a whopping 8.4 yards per carry as a rookie in 2023 before suffering a torn ACL. He was far less explosive in limited action last year but appears to have regained his burst—he averaged 7.6 yards per carry in Baltimore's preseason opener.

Cincinnati Bengals: Edge Shemar Stewart

Cincinnati Bengals rookie first-round pick Shemar Stewart is set to play a pivotal role for a few reasons.

For one, Cincinnati's 25th-ranked defense was the biggest reason why the team didn't make the playoffs in 2024, and Stewart was the biggest addition the Bengals made to their defense this offseason.

Secondly, Stewart may be tasked with leading Cincinnati's pass rush for at least part of the year. The Bengals still employ reigning NFL sacks leader Trey Hendrickson, but he hasn't signed a new contract and isn't interested in playing on his current one.

If the 30-year-old makes good on his threat to not play, the Bengals will need Stewart to have an instant impact off the edge.

Cleveland Browns: Young Quarterbacks

The Cleveland Browns finally appear set to move off of ill-fated trade acquisition Deshaun Watson at quarterback.

Watson, who is recovering from a twice-torn Achilles, isn't expected to factor into this year's quarterback plan and probably won't be part of the future, either.

Joe Flacco, 40, also isn't Cleveland's quarterback of the future, though he may open the season as the starter. The Browns' long-term outlook at quarterback will hinge on a trio of young quarterbacks: 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett, rookie third-round pick Dillon Gabriel and rookie fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders.

Sanders (138 yards, 2 TDs) got the start in Cleveland's preseason opener and performed well while Gabriel and Pickett were out with hamstring injuries. The Browns need one of the three to show franchise-quarterback potential this season, though, or else they'll likely use their two 2026 first-round picks to target a new QB in the draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Broderick Jones

If the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to end their eight-year streak of being largely irrelevant in the postseason, they'll need a bounce-back campaign from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

To get that, they'll need to adequately protect the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer.

This makes third-year offensive tackle Broderick Jones a massive X-factor in Pittsburgh. The 2023 first-round pick is set to move from right to left tackle following the offseason departure of Dan Moore Jr. He was mostly just OK on the right side last season—ranked 89th overall by Pro Football Focus—but left tackle is his natural position.

Troy Fautanu, who missed most of his rookie season with a dislocated kneecap, will also play a pivotal role in Jones' old spot at right tackle. If Jones can't protect Rodgers' blind side, though, the Steelers won't even reach the playoffs.

AFC West

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Josh Simmons

Denver Broncos: New RBs

The Denver Broncos were one of the NFL's surprise teams of 2024, due in no small part to the rookie success of quarterback Bo Nix. This year, they will look to be more than just a playoff surprise by fielding a more balanced team.

Nix (93.3 QB rating) played well last season, and the Broncos fielded the league's third-ranked scoring defense. However, a rushing attack ranked just 21st in yards per carry prevented Denver from having a truly complete team.

Things should change in 2025, provided free-agent addition J.K. Dobbins and rookie second-rounder RJ Harvey boost the ground game as expected.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Josh Simmons

There's no way to sugarcoat it: The Kansas City Chiefs got embarrassed in Super Bowl LIV, due in no small part to an offensive line that simply couldn't slow the Philadelphia Eagles pass rush.

Kansas City threw a pair of darts at its left tackle problem this offseason, signing Jaylon Moore before drafting Josh Simmons 32nd overall.

Simmons, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last year, has appeared healthy this summer and also looks set to start in Week 1, with 2024 second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia starting at guard.

If Patrick Mahomes enjoys better pass protection this season, Kansas City should be right back in the Super Bowl mix. He should get it if Simmons proves to be a dependable starter as a rookie.

Las Vegas Raiders: RB Ashton Jeanty

The Las Vegas Raiders aren't expected to be a title contender like the rival Chiefs. However, they should have an opportunity to be relevant in the AFC West and field a fairly functional offense.

New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and new quarterback Geno Smith should give the Raiders an upgrade over what they had last season. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has the potential to make Las Vegas' new-look offense elite.

The Boise State product was both a high-volume runner and a capable pass-catcher in college. If he can fill a similar role for the Raiders, it'll help ensure Smith succeeds while opening up opportunities for pass-catchers like Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech.

Los Angeles Chargers: OT Trey Pipkins III

The Los Angeles Chargers lost one of their best players when Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending knee injury.

The initial plan, according to head coach Jim Harbaugh, will involve moving Joe Alt from right to left tackle and starting Trey Pipkins III on the right side.

"That's what we'll start [with]," Harbaugh told reporters last week. "Nothing set in stone, but that's where we're at."

Alt, who was a left tackle at Notre Dame, will face his fair share of responsibility but should be up for the challenge.

Pipkins, who spent last season at guard, is much more of a question mark. He has plenty of experience playing tackle for Los Angeles, but he never played well enough to discourage the Chargers from drafting Alt fifth overall last season.

NFC East

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Cowboys OT Tyler Guyton

Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyler Guyton

After the hiring of new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and a season marred by injuries, the Dallas Cowboys are a relative unknown in 2025. They might rebound under new guidance and finally become a playoff threat, or they may remain overshadowed by their division rivals.

It's hard to imagine Dallas contending in the NFC East without a healthy and high-performing Dak Prescott. Therefore, the health and play of second-year left tackle Tyler Guyton will be critical.

The 24-year-old largely disappointed as a rookie—Pro Football Focus graded him 115th overall out of 140 offensive tackles—and he's currently dealing with a knee injury.

Franchise owner Jerry Jones said the possibility of Guyton playing in Week 1 "looks good," per Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, but Dallas needs him to be healthy and play much better than he did last season.

New York Giants: RB Cam Skattebo

The New York Giants are set to open the season with Russell Wilson at quarterback, though they'll probably pivot to rookie Jaxson Dart at some point.

Regardless of who is behind center, though, New York will fare better with a strong supporting cast. Malik Nabers, Theo Johnson and Tyrone Tracy Jr. made their mark as rookies last season and form a fairly respectable offensive core.

Rookie running back Cam Skattebo has the potential to make the group even better. His physical running style can give the Giants an edge in late-game or short-yardage situations, and he can partner with Tracy and Devin Singletary to give New York a fantastic backfield rotation.

However, Skattebo, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, will have to get on the field and carve out a role to make an impact.

Philadelphia Eagles: Edge Nolan Smith Jr.

The Philadelphia Eagles have done a great job in recent years of replacing players they can no longer afford. However, they face a challenge after allowing pass-rusher Josh Sweat to depart and trading fellow edge Bryce Huff.

Sweat led the Eagles with eight sacks last season, while Huff chipped in 2.5.

The Eagles now need 2023 first-round pick Nolan Smith Jr. to emerge as a pass-rushing force. He had bright moments last season, which he finished with 6.5 sacks, but he has yet to become the regular game-wrecker Philly drafted him to be. If he can reach that level in 2025, the Eagles' defense won't miss a beat.

Washington Commanders: DT Javon Kinlaw

The Washington Commanders raised a few eyebrows when they signed defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw to a three-year, $45 million deal this offseason. A 2020 first-round pick of the San Francisco 49ers, he had a career-best campaign with the Jets last season. However, he's never been a Pro Bowl-caliber player.

The Commanders need Kinlaw to play at a Pro Bowl level this season, specifically against the run. Washington's defense ranked just 28th in yards per carry allowed last season, and poor run defense played a big role in its blowout loss to Philadelphia in the NFC title game.

NFC South

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons made the decision to pivot from veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to then-rookie Michael Penix Jr. late last season.

They're hoping Penix can boost the offense while providing long-term stability at the game's most important position. While the Washington product showed signs he can do that as a rookie, he still lacks NFL experience.

The 2024 No. 8 overall pick was a terrific passer in college, and his deep-ball prowess is poised to complement pass-catchers like Darnell Mooney, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. However, he's still a second-year quarterback with three pro starts on his resume who could have his fair share of growing pains this season.

The Falcons must stick with the youngster now, but Penix's play will determine whether 2025 brings a playoff push or a transitional year for Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers: WR Tetairoa McMillan

The Carolina Panthers are hoping they have their quarterback in 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young.

The Alabama product struggled as a rookie and early in 2024 but became a legitimate difference-maker down the stretch last season. In his second season under head coach Dave Canales, he might become the top-tier passer he was in college.

It will help tremendously if rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan can give Young a legitimate No. 1 target. Xavier Legette failed to do that as a rookie last season. Adam Thielen, while still productive, will turn 35 later this month and is no longer a true No. 1.

Carolina needs McMillan to become a go-to target in the mold of division rivals Mike Evans, Drake London and Chris Olave.

New Orleans Saints: Young QBs

The New Orleans Saints have a new head coach in former Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

If Moore is going to have immediate success, though, he needs to find some stability at quarterback—something the Saints haven't enjoyed since Drew Brees' 2021 retirement.

New Orleans is currently conducting a three-way open QB competition that involves rookie Tyler Shough, second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler and third-year signal-caller Jake Haener.

The Saints will have a young, relatively inexperienced figure under center, regardless of who wins the starting job or what combination of QBs plays over the course of the year. But if they find a reliable starter among the group, they may have a chance to challenge in the NFC South.

If New Orleans doesn't, it'll likely be eyeing quarterbacks in the 2026 draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Charlie Heck

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will enter the regular season as the NFC South favorites. They have won four straight division titles and done a great job of retaining talent from year to year.

However, one of the team's best players, offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, appears likely to miss time early in the year.

The 26-year-old underwent knee surgery in July and opened camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. If Tampa keeps him on the PUP list to start the regular season, he'll have to miss at least four games. That's a pivotal stretch that includes divisional games against the Falcons, Texans, Jets and Eagles.

This places a lot of pressure on free-agent addition Charlie Heck, who is expected to fill in at left tackle.

Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the league when healthy, while Heck has started just 11 games over the past three years. His ability to do a reasonable impression of Wirfs will determine what kind of start to the season Tampa experiences.

NFC North

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy

Chicago Bears: TE Colston Loveland

The Chicago Bears are hoping new head coach Ben Johnson can get more out of Caleb Williams—and his ability to turn the 2024 first overall pick into an above-average quarterback will determine how successful Chicago can be this season.

However, Johnson and Williams are unlikely to find success without a strong supporting cast, which is one reason why rookie tight end Colston Loveland looms as an X-factor.

The Michigan product has the potential to have a rookie impact not unlike Brock Bowers in 2024. He can be the sort of go-to pass-catcher that elevates Williams on a weekly basis.

Another reason why Loveland is an X-factor is that he could make fellow tight end Cole Kmet expendable.

Kmet has three years left on a four-year, $50 million contract, but he could become a trade chip at the deadline if Loveland shines early.

Detroit Lions: Edge Marcus Davenport

The Detroit Lions should get a massive boost from the return of Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a season-ending leg fracture in 2024. However, they still need to find a top-tier complement to their pass-rushing superstar.

The Lions didn't add an edge-rusher this offseason, but they did re-sign Marcus Davenport, who suffered his own season-ending injury after two games last season.

His ability to stay on the field and perform at a high level will determine whether Detroit has an elite pass rush or needs to examine other options, possibly via the trade market.

Green Bay Packers: Rookie WRs

The Green Bay Packers are paying Jordan Love like an elite quarterback. Now they need him to play like one. The 26-year-old has only shown flashes to this point, though he hasn't enjoyed a truly reliable receiving corps.

Green Bay had a collection of good receivers in 2024 but no true standout No. 1. Drops (33 on the season) were also a problem, one that showed up again in its preseason opener.

These are reasons why Green Bay drafted wideouts Matthew Golden and Savion Williams and why it needs the young receivers to make an immediate and significant impact.

Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings won 14 games with Sam Darnold at quarterback last season, though starting him was never the obvious plan.

Minnesota used a first-round pick on J.J. McCarthy last offseason and only committed to Darnold after the Michigan product underwent season-ending knee surgery.

With Darnold departing in free agency, the keys to the offense belong to McCarthy. What's unknown is whether the former Wolverine can replicate Darnold's Pro Bowl production, exceed it or cause the offense to take a step back. That's been one of the biggest question marks in the NFL all offseason, and Minnesota won't have answers until McCarthy takes the field in meaningful games.

The good news is McCarthy was healthy enough to play in the preseason opener and should be on the field for the Vikings in Week 1.

NFC West

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

Arizona Cardinals: DL Walter Nolen III

The Arizona Cardinals have some promising players on offense, including Kyler Murray, James Conner, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. What they need to get back in the playoff mix is a defense capable of slowing the opposition.

Head coach Jonathan Gannon had a top-tier defense during his time as the Eagles' defensive coordinator, but he hasn't had anything resembling one since arriving in Arizona. Last year's defense ranked just 21st in yards allowed.

The Cardinals—and Gannon, who may be on the hot seat otherwise—need rookie first-round pick Walter Nolen III to be an immediate difference-maker if they're going to field a disruptive defense.

Unfortunately, the Mississippi product was sidelined by a calf injury to open camp and may or may not be prepared to give Arizona the fast start it needs.

Los Angeles Rams: OT D.J. Humphries

For the Los Angeles Rams, a lot will hinge on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's at his best, the Rams are legitimate NFC contenders, but he missed a good chunk of training camp with a back injury.

Keeping Stafford healthy and upright will be critical to Los Angeles' success, which makes backup offensive tackle D.J. Humphries a major X-factor.

Signed in mid-June, Humphries is expected to start at left tackle while regular starter Alaric Jackson recovers from blood clots.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Jauan Jennings

The San Francisco 49ers gave quarterback Brock Purdy a five-year, $265 million extension this offseason, and they'll need him to earn it if they hope to return to the playoffs in 2025.

Unfortunately, Purdy won't be working with the same supporting cast with which he's familiar.

San Francisco traded away Deebo Samuel early in the offseason, and Brandon Aiyuk is still recovering from last year's season-ending knee injury. This places a ton of pressure on Jauan Jennings, who is expected to fill the No. 1 receiver role this season. He did an admirable job in that role last year, but he's currently dealing with a calf injury and the potential distraction of wanting a new contract.

Seattle Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold may have been a Pro Bowler in 2024, but he's far from an established star. He had one of the league's best supporting casts in Minnesota and struggled to be an even average quarterback before joining the Vikings.

Darnold might be the biggest X-factor in the entire NFL this season. He's a massive boom-or-bust player for the Seahawks, who traded away two-time Pro Bowler Geno Smith. It's a gamble that could either net Seattle a long-term starter or place head coach Mike Macdonald and general manager John Schneider on the hot seat.

Will Darnold continue his NFL redemption in a new environment? Will he revert to the same bad habits that caused the Jets to abandon him after three seasons? Plenty of questions surround Darnold entering the regular season, and the answers could change the course of the Seahawks franchise.

*Contract information via Spotrac.