First Super Bowl? Ranking Each NFL Team's Likelihood to Win First Lombardi in 2025

Twenty NFL franchises have won at least one Super Bowl—a number that hasn't changed since the Philadelphia Eagles joined that club at the conclusion of the 2017 season.

However, based on this year's odds from DraftKings, three of the top 10 Super Bowl favorites are teams that have never hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Let's look at those three as well as the nine other Super Bowl-less teams and their chances of breaking through in 2025.

Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Bills QB Josh Allen

Nobody has better Super Bowl odds than the Buffalo Bills, who have taken the AFC East crown with at least 11 wins in five consecutive seasons and fell just short of making the Super Bowl last year. 

Is this the year when they finally break through? Or does this team just not have it when it comes to crunch time in January? It helps that the Chiefs have become fallible recently and Baltimore has been even more of a disappointment in recent postseasons. 

The path is relatively clear for a stacked team that has the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis. 

Likelihood: 20%

Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals QB Joe Burrow

The Cincinnati Bengals are so much better than their 9-8 records from the last two seasons.

They had the league's sixth-highest-scoring offense as quarterback Joe Burrow put together a campaign that would have earned MVP attention had the team made the playoffs in 2024, and there’s a good chance they put it back together in 2025. 

Don’t forget this team fell just a few points shy of winning the Super Bowl in 2021 and pushed the Chiefs to the brink in the 2022 AFC title game. 

They have to deal with the Ravens within the division and the Bills and Chiefs (among other potential contenders) within the stronger of the two conferences. But with their top-end talent in key spots and their big-game pedigree, they have a legit shot at finally breaking through this year.

Likelihood: 8%

Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Lions QB Jared Goff

Also stacked, the Detroit Lions were the best team in the NFC in terms of record (15-2), scoring margin (plus-222) and DVOA (34.8%) in 2024, and there's no reason to expect that to change dramatically with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson in 2025. 

The potential problem is Detroit should be consistently challenged by the NFL's third-most difficult schedule in what is clearly the best division in the league.

How much cannibalization will take place within the NFC North? And even if the Lions survive that, their path to the Super Bowl is likely to contain the defending champion Eagles. 

This team also fell short when it mattered last year, so it's hard to get too excited about their chances despite all of that talent. 

Likelihood: 6%

Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh, left, and QB Justin Herbert

The ceiling is high for a Los Angeles Chargers team that could well dethrone the vulnerable Chiefs in the AFC West if Jim Harbaugh can work his magic and quarterback Justin Herbert can continue to ascend. 

Los Angeles won 11 games last year as Herbert put together the best season of his career while supported by the league's top-rated scoring defense. Build on that in 2025 and the sky's the limit. 

That said, the Bolts benefited from a soft schedule in 2024. The league may be better prepared for them in Harbaugh's second season, and the division-rival Broncos are arguably riding a similar trajectory. 

This is a "you never know" scenario, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

Likelihood: 3%

Houston Texans

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

Texans QB C.J. Stroud

If Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can get back to where he was during a dazzling rookie season in 2023, this team could certainly join the Super Bowl mix. 

But that's a big "if" considering Stroud's struggles behind a porous offensive line in 2024. And while the Texans have at least made changes to that unit this offseason, there's no guarantee the QB and the offense will benefit from the departure of veteran left tackle Laremy Tunsil. 

It's hard to trust this team, and the division could be soft but the schedule tough. The talent on its roster gives Houston a Super Bowl-level ceiling, but a lot of stars would have to align perfectly in the AFC playoffs. 

Likelihood: 2%

Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/John Raoux

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

The Jacksonville Jaguars had their issues in 2024, but they posted winning records in 2022 and 2023, and they have the talent to bounce back in 2025. 

Trevor Lawrence clearly has the ability to come through with the right support and good luck in the health department, and he could be in a great spot with No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter joining Brian Thomas Jr. in the receiving corps. 

The Jags have an easy schedule in a weak division and could have new energy from an overhauled coaching staff. There's a remote possibility they take advantage of that while the rest of the conference beats each other up.

Still, though, it's hard to imagine them charging right through to Super Bowl LX and winning it all after losing 13 games in 2024.

Likelihood: 2%

Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. It comes down to that offensive duo in Arizona, as both have superstar abilities. Could they possibly come together and dominate for a team that has been progressively rebuilding? 

It's not totally out of the question, especially with the NFC West becoming quite winnable of late. The key is there's significant room for growth and a talented veteran quarterback in place. 

That gets Arizona into the same category as Houston and Jacksonville. 

Likelihood: 2%

Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy

No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, yet alone won one. And while J.J. McCarthy isn't a rookie, that will essentially be the case after last year's No. 10 overall pick missed the entire 2024 campaign due to a knee injury. 

That alone has to curb your high-level expectations for an otherwise very skilled Vikings team, especially considering the strength of its division and schedule. 

McCarthy has the ability to excel with a tremendous supporting cast in 2025, but a first-ever Super Bowl win seems like it's more of a 2026 thing at this point. 

Likelihood: 2%

Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.

Also essentially a rookie (but less so than McCarthy), Michael Penix Jr. is also surrounded by significant talent at the skill positions as well as a strong offensive line. 

The Falcons defense also looks improved, although that unit is not comparable to Minnesota's. 

Atlanta does have a soft schedule in a wide-open division, and Penix looks as though he has an elite ceiling. It's just hard to imagine him reaching it in 2025, and a lot of question marks remain on the roster.

The Super Bowl probably shouldn't be on the radar just yet, but the playoffs are a distinct possibility. 

Likelihood: 1%

Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Nell Redmond

Panthers QB Bryce Young

Now we hit the extreme long shots, starting with a rebuilding Panthers team that does have a potential franchise quarterback in Bryce Young. 

The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has yet to fully establish himself as a reliable starter, though, and keep in mind the Carolina defense surrendered a league-high 31.4 points per game last season. 

It's 2026 at the very earliest for these Panthers. 

Likelihood: <1%

Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Cam Ward

Ditto for the Titans and their rookie No. 1 overall pick at quarterback. 

Cam Ward brings hope, but this is a mid-rebuild team coming off a 14-loss campaign. The goal is to become respectable for now, with the hope of becoming a contender in 2026 or 2027. 

Likelihood: <1%

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/David Richard

Browns QB Joe Flacco

The Browns are almost certain to make it 60 consecutive years without a championship in the Super Bowl era (including three inactive years between 1996 and 1998). 

They were 3-14 with the worst scoring margin in football in 2024, they haven't resolved their quarterback issue at all yet, and they are likely to be buried in one of the strongest divisions in the league. 

It's not happening. 

Likelihood: <1%