NFL Scouts Reportedly Believe Arch Manning Will Skip 2026 Draft, Stay at Texas

Despite entering this season as one of the early favorites to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, Arch Manning could end up staying at Texas beyond the 2025 campaign.

Per ESPN's Matt Miller, scouts and personnel executives from around the NFL believe Manning will bypass the draft and stay at Texas in 2026 regardless of how the Longhorns fare this season.

B/R's NFL scouting department projected Manning to be the No. 2 pick in the 2026 draft in a way-too-early mock posted in April.

Manning's arc so far has been fascinating because he has only started two games in two seasons, despite being the nation's No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class.

Texas had a good quarterback already in tow with Quinn Ewers leading the program back to prominence, but it's odd in the transfer portal era to see a player of Manning's pedigree choose to take a backseat for multiple years.

Manning said in July 2024 it "was my dream to play at Texas" and there was nowhere else he wants to be in explaining why he has remained in Austin.

It probably doesn't hurt that Manning also has the highest NIL valuation among all college athletes at $6.8 million. Miami quarterback Carson Beck is a distant second with a valuation of $4.3 million.

Now that Ewers has moved on to the NFL, Manning will finally get his opportunity in the spotlight. He fared well in limited play last season, completing 61 of 90 passes (67.8 percent) with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

The majority of those snaps were against weaker competition, including two starts against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, so we don't have a full picture of what Manning will look like against tougher opposition.

It's way too early to start speculating about Manning's future in the NFL, but the fact that several league scouts and personnel executives all agreed they expect him to remain in college beyond this season could put a huge dent in how teams try to plan for the 2026 draft.