US Open Golf 2025 Cut Line Projections After Thursday's Leaderboard

If scores hold after the second round of the U.S. Open on Friday—and obviously they won't—the cut line is projected to claim anybody shooting worse than three over par.

The U.S. Open doesn't allow room for any stragglers, with only the top 60 players and any ties moving on to the third and fourth rounds. After the first round, the top 61 players are three-over or better.

So, who are some of the biggest names currently facing a potential cut if they don't pick up the pace on Friday?

Former U.S. Open champions Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Rory McIlroy and Lucas Glover are all at four over, for starters. Another former winner at the event, Dustin Johnson, sits at five over (ironically, he won the U.S. Open back in 2016, the last time it was played at its current location at the Oakmont Country Club).

Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Jason Day and Tony Finau are all six over, while former champion Justin Rose is seven shots over par.

Shane Lowry wraps up the big names in major peril of missing the cut at nine over.

Oakmont is a notoriously difficult course to navigate, so the players who find themselves below the projected cut line have a major uphill climb ahead of them on Friday.

On the other end of the leaderboard, Jon Rahm (+500) is the current favorite to win the event after shooting a 1-over 69, leaving him three strokes behind the leader, JJ Spaun. Scottie Scheffler (+650) isn't far behind in the odds, though at three over he's sitting dangerously close to the projected cut line and already seven strokes off the lead.