TUF 21 Finale: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The latest edition of The Ultimate Fighter came to a close this past week, and that means a finale is coming your way this weekend. The 21st edition of the television series pitted American Top Team against the Blackzilians under a new format.

American Top Team came from behind to win the season, but there is another $300,000 up for grabs in a final selected bout. Kamaru Usman of the Blackzilians squares off against ATT's Hayder Hassan in the co-main event.

Headlining the event will be welterweights Jake Ellenberger and Stephen Thompson. The talented fighters seek a victory to move into the upper echelon of the division.

The main card is six fights deep, and we will take a peek at where you are best served to lay your money. Let's waste little time in getting to the action coming your way Sunday on Fox Sports 1.

Maximo Blanco (-150) vs. Mike De La Torre (+120)

Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

The main card opens up with an exciting contest between Maximo Blanco and Mike De La Torre.

Both fighters are coming off victories and looking to build toward bigger fights in the featherweight division.

As the odds suggest, this is a close fight. I favor Blanco, who is a little more well-rounded. He will do just enough to score a decision victory. De La Torre will be game for all 15 minutes, though.

At minus-150 I like playing Blanco. He isn't a sure thing, but nothing in MMA really is. This will be a fun scrap.

Prediction: Blanco defeats De La Torre by decision.

The Play: Lay down on Blanco.

Angela Magana (+400) vs. Michelle Waterson (-600)

Esther Lin/Invicta FC

Michelle Waterson's UFC debut should be a showcase of her striking. Angela Magana is a perfect matchup to make her look good.

Magana can take a beating, and that means it will go the distance. But Waterson should not be in any danger. The only way she will lose this fight is if Magana is able to outmuscle her against the cage.

Betting on this fight is a lost cause. There is no value.

Magana isn't a realistic threat to win this fight. Waterson, on the other hand, is such a steep favorite you are not going to get a good return on your investment. You are better off just basking in Waterson's technical ability. It is tough to see her as a legitimate top contender at 115 pounds, but she will be fun to watch regardless.

Prediction: Waterson defeats Magana by decision.

The Play: Skip this fight.

Jorge Masvidal (-275) vs. Cezar Ferreira (+215)

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

After a contentious split-decision loss to Al Iaquinta, Jorge Masvidal moves back up to welterweight for a fight against Cezar Ferreira.

Ferreira is coming off a devastating loss to Sam Alvey. He needs this win. A loss would mean he will be 1-3 since winning The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. That is not the way to secure your job.

I like Masvidal. His striking is purer than Ferreira's; he can take a shot and can keep a fast pace for all three rounds. That will be how he wins: with relentless pace. Ferreira will start to fade under the pressure of Masvidal, and eventually the referee will need to save him.

Masvidal will shut Ferreira down with his boxing. Ferreira will be a threat in this fight, as Masvidal takes him to school.

Prediction: Masvidal defeats Ferreira by TKO in the third round.

The Play: Masvidal is the safe bet.

Michael Graves (-105) vs. Vicente Luque (-135)

UFC.com

This was Dana White's pick for a finale fight from the season.

I would not suggest betting on this fight. They are two young fighters who have improved throughout The Ultimate Fighter, and we do not know how much they have improved coming off the show. We will see different fighters this weekend.

I'll take the undefeated Graves, though.

I have no idea how this fight will play out. There are too many variables. I'll throw a dart and take Graves by submission. That's my best guess. And it is a complete shot in the dark.

These are two prospects at quality gyms. It should be a fun fight to watch, but it is nothing you should play.

Prediction: Graves defeats Luque via submission.

The Play: If you want to play this fight, go for Graves.

Kamaru Usman vs. Hayder Hassan

UFC.com

There is no active betting line on this fight just yet.

Much like the TUF fight that precedes this, there are so many variables that we do not know how it will pan out. The two hand-selected fighters are the best of their respective gyms from this past season, and they go head-to-head.

Kamaru Usman is coming in on a four-fight win streak, and Hayder Hassan matches him in that regard. Usman will have a height and reach advantage, but it won't be a distinct one inside the cage.

Usman's athleticism will be the difference in this fight. Hassan will need to corner Usman and take him down throughout the fight. He can't do that for three rounds. Eventually, Usman clips him and finishes. The Blackzilians will pocket the $300,000.

Prediction: Usman defeats Hassan by TKO.

The Play: There is no line yet.

Jake Ellenberger (+175) vs. Stephen Thompson (-225)

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

This is a difficult fight to predict and one that will be a defining battle for Jake Ellenberger.

He had his back against the wall against Josh Koscheck after losing three straight, but he capitalized and finished Koscheck. He meets noted striker Stephen Thompson in the main event this weekend.

Thompson is on a four-fight win streak. His latest performance was a victory over Patrick Cote at UFC 178.

Ellenberger has a great shot at the win. And I would take a shot on him with his power and wrestling. His grappling and pressure can be a big factor in taking away Thompson's biggest asset.

However, I cannot pick him. His chin is suspect, and this is a five-round fight. At some point in the 25-minute fight, Thompson will land. He will connect in the first five minutes and finish Ellenberger for a big statement victory.

Prediction: Thompson defeats Ellenberger by KO in the first round.

The Play: Take a gamble on Ellenberger.

All odds provided by OddsShark.com.