Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds and Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders

Journalism will try to write the latest piece of Kentucky Derby history with a win as the favorite on Saturday.

The pre-race favorite is one of the strongest horses to enter the first leg of the Triple Crown in recent years and that's reflected in the odds.

Journalism is a 3-1 favorite and that number could dip a bit lower depending on how money flows in on Saturday.

The Michael McCarthy-trained horse comes into Churchill Downs on a four-race winning streak.

Other horses in the field have multiple wins in their careers, but none of them have been as successful as Journalism.

Sandman and Sovereignty are the other horses listed below 10-1 for the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby.

Both contenders consistently finished inside the top three during their Derby preparations, but neither three-year-old horse went head-to-head with Journalism.

Sovereignty is in the better form of the top two challengers to Journalism, as he won back-to-back races and then took a second-place finish at the Florida Derby behind Tappan Street, who was scheduled to race in the Derby before a scratch last week.

A scratch this week led to the arrival of Baeza into the field.

Baeza is a fascinating challenger because he comes in with three consecutive top-two finishes.

Baeza took second behind Journalism at the Santa Anita Derby. His other second-place mark in 2025 came in January behind Rodriguez, who scratched from the Derby field earlier in the week.

Baeza could have a clear path to the front from the furthest outside starting position .

Most of the other horses in the field aren't expected to be at the front when the race reaches its final quarter-mile.

A long-shot winner, like Rich Strike at 30-1 in 2022, is unlikely in this year's edition of the Derby.

It's more likely that one of the favorites triumphs at Churchill Downs to set up a run at the Triple Crown.

Predictions

1. Journalism
2. Baeza
3. Sovereignty
4. Sandman