NFL QB's: 4 Weeks at a Time

It has been my general feeling with football, that each game is a reflection of the last several games. Not the entire season. While a full season gives us a nice average of stats, I want to know- How will we fare in the next one.

Of course everyone does!!! So lets forget the big picture. Remove the idea of win or lose and team success or failure. Replace it with individual performances.

So here is my endeavour. Starting with QB's, and only a portion at that. Lets look back at the last 4 games started, including Postseason & omitting Preseason. When I say "last 4", that refers to the actual last 4 games of the QB, not the team.

QB	Last 4/Date	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	TD	Int	Sck	SckY	Rate
P. Rivers	12/21/09	21	31	67.7	287	9.3	4	0	1	7	136.7
	12/28/09	15	20	75	207	10.4	2	0	2	5	141
	01/03/09	20	36	55.6	217	6	0	1	4	27	61.9
	01/11/09	21	35	60	308	8.8	3	1	4	33	105.4
	avg.	19.25	30.5	64.58	254.75	8.63	2.25	0.5	2.75	18	111.25
K. Warner	01/03/09	19	32	59.4	271	8.5	2	1	0	0	94.7
	01/10/09	21	32	65.6	220	6.9	2	1	1	5	93.2
	01/18/09	21	28	75	279	10	4	0	2	12	145.7
	02/01/09	31	43	72.1	377	8.8	3	1	2	3	112.3
	avg.	23	33.75	68.03	286.75	8.55	2.75	0.75	1.25	5	111.48
D. Brees	12/07/09	18	32	56.3	230	7.2	2	0	0	0	99.7
	12/11/09	24	43	55.8	232	5.4	2	2	1	6	67.2
	12/21/09	30	40	75	351	8.8	2	0	0	0	117.8
	12/28/09	30	49	61.2	386	7.9	4	1	2	19	104.6
	avg.	25.5	41	62.08	299.75	7.33	2.5	0.75	0.75	6.25	97.33
P. Manning	12/14/09	28	37	75.7	318	8.6	1	0	1	3	110
	12/18/09	29	34	85.3	364	10.7	3	0	0	0	140.7
	12/28/09	7	7	100	95	13.6	1	0	1	4	158.3
	01/03/09	25	42	59.5	310	7.4	1	0	1	8	90.4
	avg.	22.25	30	80.13	271.75	10.08	1.5	0	0.75	3.75	124.85
T. Brady	01/12/09	26	28	92.9	262	9.4	3	0	1	4	141.4
	01/20/09	22	33	66.7	209	6.3	2	3	2	11	66.4
	02/03/09	29	48	60.4	266	5.5	1	0	5	37	82.5
	09/07/09	7	11	63.6	76	6.9	0	0	0	0	83.9
	avg.	21	30	70.9	203.25	7.03	1.5	0.75	2	13	93.55
B. Roethlisberger	12/28/09	9	14	64.3	110	7.9	0	1	0	0	58.6
	01/11/09	17	26	65.4	181	7	1	0	1	4	98.4
	01/18/09	16	33	48.5	255	7.7	1	0	4	32	84.8
	02/01/09	21	30	70	256	8.5	1	1	3	22	93.2
	avg.	15.75	25.75	62.05	200.5	7.78	0.75	0.5	2	14.5	83.75
D. McNabb	12/28/09	12	21	57.1	175	8.3	2	0	1	9	116.2
	01/04/09	23	34	67.6	300	8.8	1	1	3	17	92.8
	01/11/09	22	40	55	217	5.4	1	2	0	0	58
	01/18/09	28	47	59.6	375	8	3	1	2	18	97.4
	avg.	21.25	35.5	59.83	266.75	7.63	1.75	1	1.5	11	91.1
T. Romo	12/07/09	19	36	52.8	210	5.8	1	3	3	16	44.9
	12/14/09	20	30	66.7	244	8.1	2	0	4	23	113.7
	12/20/09	24	45	53.3	252	5.6	2	2	2	17	66.2
	12/28/09	21	39	53.8	183	4.7	0	1	3	15	55.8
	avg.	21	37.5	56.65	222.25	6.05	1.25	1.5	3	17.75	70.15
M. Ryan	12/14/09	15	23	65.2	206	9	0	2	1	8	57.5
	12/21/09	13	24	54.2	134	5.6	1	0	2	10	84.4
	12/28/09	10	21	47.6	160	7.6	1	2	1	6	49.8
	01/03/09	26	40	65	199	5	2	2	3	9	72.8
	avg.	16	27	58	174.75	6.8	1	1.5	1.75	8.25	66.13
B. Favre	12/07/09	20	31	64.5	137	4.4	0	1	3	14	60.8
	12/14/09	17	30	56.7	207	6.9	1	2	0	0	61.4
	12/21/09	18	31	58.1	187	6	0	2	4	37	48.7
	12/28/09	20	40	50	233	5.8	1	3	0	0	45.1
	avg.	18.75	33	57.33	191	5.78	0.5	2	1.75	12.75	54

So now we have the stats with the averages for the last four games played by each QB. How close will that average be to the final stats after this opening week? What about after several more weeks pass and the averages are adjusted to reflect those games? Will the average reflect what the QB's next game will accurately be like?

I don't know yet. But this makes for an interesting experiment, and hopefully an entertaining read.

Stay tuned as I update this weekly, possibly add more players, and find out if there is any accuracy at all with this theory.