Predicting Which Stars Will Break Major Sports Records Next

In sports, there are records that will never be broken.

No one is ever playing 2,632 games in a row like Cal Ripken Jr., racking up 2,857 career points like Wayne Gretzky, playing 50.4 minutes per game like Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-62 season or striking out 5,714 batters like Nolan Ryan.

However, sometimes the perfect situation comes along where someone can set a record that was previously thought to be unbreakable. We saw it when Alexander Ovechkin surpassed Gretzky's career goals record and when LeBron James moved ahead of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the NBA's scoring title.

Here, we'll take a look at some current athletes and coaches who could break some major records if luck and longevity go their way. In most cases, it's going to take numerous years for them to etch their names in the record books, so we'll also provide a general pace they'll need to maintain or exceed in order to reach the mountaintop.

And to be clear, some of these records in fact may be unbreakable. The possibilities listed here largely hinge on things going perfectly for our record-breaking contenders.

But hey, you never know...

LeBron James' Record of 42,115 Points (and Counting)

Luke Hales/Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Luka Dončić

We're starting off with a tough one, as this record might not be breakable—at least not by anyone who is currently in the NBA. Over 22 years, James has displayed incomparable consistency, health and scoring ability, and it's hard to imagine anyone surpassing The King.

That said, maybe the heir apparent is playing alongside James already. Coming to the end of his seventh NBA season, Luka Dončić is averaging 28.6 points per game, which ranks third all-time behind only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. Dončić, like James, entered the NBA as a teenager, so he could have the time to catch up.

However, Dončić is going to have to play more games per season. Though Dončić has a higher scoring average than James did through seven seasons, he has about 100 fewer games through that same point. James has averaged nearly 71 games per season for 22 years, while Doncic is currently at about 64 per year with four games remaining in the 2024-25 regular season.

At 12,771 career points as of this writing, Dončić would need to play 1,026 games and keep up his current scoring average to catch James' current scoring total. At 64 games per season, it would take Dončić 16 more years, meaning he'd have to play through the 2041-42 season.

At 82 games per year (a stretch, but bear with us), Dončić could surpass James' current total midway through the 2038-39 season, which would be his 20th campaign—and it would maybe leave him a few years to pass whatever mark James is at when he ultimately does retire.

Jerry Rice's 22,895 Career Receiving Yards

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Potential Challengers: Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson

Jerry Rice wasn't just a great receiver because of his ability to get open and catch passes, but also because of his ability to stay on the field. Over his 20 NFL seasons, Rice appeared in all of his team's games 18 times.

If health and productivity are on their sides, there are a couple of current wide receivers who could challenge Rice's seemingly unbreakable record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans currently ranks 24th on the all-time receiving yards list at 12,684 yards. However, his 75.5 yards per game is just a hair beneath Rice's 75.6, and Evans could still have some productive seasons ahead of him—not to mention at least one extra game on the schedule per year compared to Rice.

If Evans maintains his 75.5 yards per game, it will take him 136 games to surpass Rice. At a full 17 games per season, Evans could just eke by Rice at the end of the 2032 season when he'll be nearly 40 years old.

Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson may have a better chance to pass Rice. The 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year has averaged a blistering 96.5 receiving yards per game through his first five seasons, putting him at 7,432 for his career—over 1,000 more than Rice's total through five years.

Even if Jefferson's yards per game dip to Rice's average (75.6) for the remainder of his career, Jefferson would only need 205 more games to match Rice's career totals. At a conservative 15 games per season, Jefferson would surpass Rice sometime during the 2039 season when he would be 40 years old.

However, if Jefferson continues to keep his yards per game high and/or is able to play more than 15 games per season, he could challenge Rice's record even sooner.

Alexander Ovechkin's 895 Career Goals (and Counting)

Claus Andersen/Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Auston Matthews

Yes, Ovechkin's quest to surpass Wayne Gretzky's career goals total literally just came to an end. The ink isn't even dry in the record books. But still...who's got next?

Our pick for the next contender in line is Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews. Heading into this season, Matthews' 46.0 games per season was just slightly behind Ovechkin's 46.4 through his first eight seasons. Now, Ovechkin would go on to score 50-plus goals in campaign Nos. 9-11, while Matthews currently has 30 in the final days of his Year 9.

If Matthews is going to have a shot at Ovechkin's goals record, he's going to have to get his numbers back closer to his average over his first eight seasons while playing at least 20 seasons. He's at least got a leg up in that he started his career at 19 while Ovechkin started his at 20, but he's going to need to play at least through 2036-37.

Should Matthews make it through Year 20 like Ovechkin, he'll need to average 45.2 goals per season—or more—in order to pass Ovi. Shy of that average, and he'll need to play into the 2037-38 season when he'll turn 40.

That's all assuming Ovechkin retires after this season, but he's still under contract through the 2025-26 season, so we'll have to see how many more tallies he can add if he plays out his contract.

Hakeem Olajuwon's 3,830 Career Blocks

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Victor Wembanyama

First, we'll note that blocks didn't become an official NBA stat until 1973-74, meaning we don't know how many blocks Wilt Chamberlain or Bill Russell had (or would have had). Also, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, who sits third on the all-time list, didn't get credit for any blocks until his fifth season.

That being said, Hakeem Olajuwon currently reigns supreme among shot blockers. But—provided he can return to and remain at full health—San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama could give The Dream a run for his money.

Wembanyama, who was shut down after playing 46 games this season because of deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder, is already way ahead of Olajuwon's pace. With 430 blocks over his first 117 games, Wembanyama is averaging 3.7 per game—well ahead of Olajuwon's career average of 3.1.

Wembanyama has the added boost of entering the league as a 19-year-old, giving him two extra seasons on the front end ahead of Olajuwon, who entered the league at 21. During Olajuwon's first five seasons, he never averaged more than 3.4 blocks per game.

Should Wembanyama be able to return in time for the 2025-26 and stay healthy, he could begin to chase Olajuwon in earnest. Assuming he can keep up his 3.7 blocks per game and play 70 games per season, Wembanyama would surpass Olajuwon sometime early in the 2039-40 season. At that time, Wembanyama would be 35 years old and in his 16th NBA season.

That timeline could still be a low estimate for Wembanyama. If he's averaging 3.7 blocks per game now while he's still finding his NBA footing, who's to say the 7-foot-3 unicorn can't put up even gaudier numbers over time? The only thing stopping him from catching Olajuwon could be staying healthy.

Reggie Jackson's 2,597 Career Strikeouts

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Bryce Harper

Let the record show that you have to be a pretty incredible player in order to contend for the Major League career strikeout record. The two leaders, Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome, are both in the Hall of Fame. Sammy Sosa (No. 4), Alex Rodriguez (No. 5) and Miguel Cabrera (No. 6) all have Hall of Fame-worthy numbers.

So suffice it to say, no one strikes out a lot and sticks around unless they have some serious redeeming qualities.

While Jackson currently holds the record, he might pass the torch to Philadelphia Phillies star and two-time MVP Bryce Harper in the next decade.

Jackson struck out 2,597 times over 2,820 games in his 21-year career, averaging 149 strikeouts per 162 games. Harper, who started at age 19—two years earlier than Jackson—is currently averaging 150 strikeouts per 162 games (1,542 total) in the opening month of his 14th season. If we cut out this season, Harper averaged 117.9 strikeouts per season over his first 13 years.

Assuming Harper maintains that steady pace of 117.9 strikeouts per season, he should be flirting with Jackson's ignominious record sometime late in the 2033 season when he'll be approaching 41 years old. Harper's ability to approach Jackson will come down to longevity, as his strikeout numbers have consistently been close to one per game, and limited only by his availability.

If Harper can stay healthy and maybe ride out the twilight of his career as a still-feared designated hitter, he could have a shot at sticking around long enough to supplant Mr. October.

Bruce Smith's 200 Career Sacks

AP Photo/David Richard

Potential Challenger: T.J. Watt

Hall of Fame defensive end Bruce Smith was the picture of both consistency and longevity on his road to recording 200 sacks over 19 NFL seasons. The eight-time All-Pro never led the league in sacks, but he did have 10-plus in 13 seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers all-everything linebacker T.J. Watt, on the other hand, has led the league in sacks—three times, in fact—and won AP Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. He's on pace to supplant Smith as the league's greatest sack artist, but he'll have to stay healthy to do it.

Through eight seasons, Smith had 92 sacks over 108 games. Watt, who just wrapped up his eighth year, is at 108 sacks in 121 games.

If Watt can keep up his rate of 0.89 sacks per game, it should take him about 104 games to catch and pass Smith. Given that he's averaged 15.1 games per season, Watt will need about seven more seasons if he doesn't slow down his sack rate.

During that 2032-33 season, Watt will turn 39. Smith played into his 40s, and Watt may need to do the same if he's going to supplant Smith.

Russell Westbrook's 203 Career Triple-Doubles

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Nikola Jokić

While some records on this list feel unbreakable, this one getting topped feels like an inevitability.

On May 10, 2021, Westbrook passed Oscar Robertson by recording his 182nd career triple-double. Since then, the 36-year-old guard has compiled just 21 more. Meanwhile, his Nuggets teammate Nikola Jokić has 105 triple-doubles in the past four seasons alone—not counting any that may happen in the final days of this season—and a grand total of 162 in his 10-year career.

Even if we include Jokić's rookie season in which he went 80 games without a triple-double, he's averaging 16.2 triple-doubles per season, which would put him ahead of Westbrook during the 2027-28 season even if Westbrook adds a handful more to his ledger before retiring.

But with the three-and-maybe-soon-to-be-four-time MVP in the thick of his prime, there's no reason to expect Jokić to slow down as a triple-double machine. Assuming he sticks closer to his more recent rate of 25-plus triple-doubles per season, Jokić should leave Westbrook in the dust sometime in the latter stages of the 2026-27 season.

Mike Krzyzewski's 1,202 Wins in Division I Men's Basketball

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Potential Challengers: Bill Self, John Calipari

Unlike players, coaches can spend their whole lives amassing wins. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski spent 47 years on the sidelines at Army and Duke racking up 1,202 wins with a .766 winning percentage before retiring at age 75 in 2022.

It'll be awhile before anyone can challenge Coach K atop the Division I men's leaderboard, but Kansas' Bill Self and Arkansas' John Calipari could both pose a challenge if they coach well into their 70s.

Self, age 62, is currently sitting at 836 wins at a .766 winning percentage that mirrors Krzyzewski's. That doesn't include 15 wins that were vacated during the 2017-18 season. If Self wants to catch Krzyzewski, he's likely going to have to coach for about 15 more seasons. At 25 wins per season (his average at Kansas is north of 27 wins per year), Self would take nearly 15 more full seasons to pass Coach K, and it would mean coaching until 2040-41 when he'll be 78.

Calipari, age 66, faces a steeper climb. He's one win behind Self at 835, but he's had 42 wins vacated from his time at UMass and Memphis, meaning he should be at 877. At 25 wins per season—which is probably a tougher ask at Arkansas—Calipari would also need 15 seasons to pass Coach K, at which point he'd be 82 years old.

Neither Self nor Calipari is likely to continue coaching that long, but Syracuse's Jim Boeheim (1,015 wins) coached until his late 70s, so it's still possible.

Tom Brady's 89,214 Career Passing Yards

AP Photo/Jason Behnken

Potential Challenger: Patrick Mahomes

Hoping anyone will be able to match Tom Brady's longevity and consistency might be a bit foolhardy, but we're going to try anyway.

Brady racked up 89,214 passing yards over 335 games spanning 23 seasons—though in two of those seasons he only played one game apiece and accounted for 82 yards. For all intents and purposes, he set the record in a number of games that more closely correlates to 21 seasons.

Twenty-one seasons is still a heckuva lot, but it seems easier to imagine another quarterback lasting for 21 seasons as opposed to 23.

If anyone's going to catch Brady, the best bet might be Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes.

Through eight seasons—though one of those included a single appearance—Mahomes has racked up 32,352 yards in 112 games, which is good for an NFL career record 288.9 per contest. Brady only averaged 266.3 yards per game.

Mahomes took over as Kansas City's full-time starter at age 23 while Brady didn't get his chance until he was 24. That year could help Mahomes' case.

If Mahomes can at least match Brady's 266.3 yards per game—a number he reached in six straight seasons before falling short in each of the past two—he could have a shot at passing Brady's total. At 266.3 yards per game, it would take Mahomes 214 games to surpass Brady.

At 17 games per season, it would mean Mahomes would need to stay perfectly healthy for 12.5 more years. If he could, the record would fall sometime in the middle of the 2037 campaign when Mahomes is 42 years old.

If Mahomes wants to speed things up, he's going to need to keep his per-game numbers at their current record-breaking pace. Staying at 288.9 yards per game would shave off a full season's worth of games, though maintaining any NFL record rate for 11.5 more years is a big ask.

Stephen Curry's 4,041 3-Pointers (and Counting)

Eakin Howard/Getty Images

Potential Challenger: Anthony Edwards

We started this list by laying out how it's possible (although improbable) that Luka Dončić could catch LeBron James for the NBA's all-time scoring record. But there's no plausible way he's catching Stephen Curry's career record for three-pointers.

As of Tuesday morning, Curry had 4,041 three-pointers while making an NBA career best 3.95 triples per game over 1,022 games. Though he just turned 37 years old last month, Curry could still have multiple more seasons left, making it possible he could surpass 5,000 three-pointers before all is said and done.

At his current rate (3.0 per game), Dončić would need to play nearly 1,700 games to catch Curry. For reference, James hasn't even played 1,600 games.

But maybe Curry is catchable. Maybe Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards has what it takes to catch Curry.

Edwards has made 1,092 three-pointers (and counting) during the first five years of his career while playing 377 games—72-plus each season. Through the first five years of his career, Curry only had 905 three-pointers in 336 games.

In a way, Edwards is ahead even though he's only averaging 2.9 three-pointers per game. Keeping that average for 15 more years—assuming 70 games per year—would put Edwards over 4,100 three-pointers, which is ahead of where Curry stands now but likely below where Curry ends up. That would involve playing through the 2040-41 season, when Edwards will be 39.

However, any bet on Edwards hinges on his 2024-25 campaign being a sign of things to come. This season, Edwards has made 4.0 threes per game on nearly 40 percent shooting. His 303 three-pointers are ahead of even Curry, and his 764 attempts are the most in the league.

If Edwards can average 300 triples per season, he'll need about 13 more seasons to reach 5,000—meaning playing through the 2038-39 campaign. Is 300 a big ask? Sure. Excluding the two seasons in which Curry played fewer than 50 games, he only averaged about 284 threes per season.

But Edwards has been healthy thus far and entered the NBA when he was just 19, while Curry was 21 at his debut, so Edwards might have the juice to play a couple more seasons than Curry will. Edwards has an early lead relative to Curry, and he's starting to blossom as a three-point shooter.

If any current player has a shot at catching Curry's record, it's Edwards.