Explaining Braxton Miller's 10-1 Heisman Trophy Odds

COLUMBUS, Ohio — When Bovada released its latest odds for the Heisman Trophy via Odds Shark on Tuesday, one change in particular seemed to stand out above all others.

Only it wasn't TCU's Trevone Boykin overtaking Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott as the new Heisman front-runner that had the Twittersphere buzzing, but rather a shift in perception in college football's most talked-about position battle.

After entering the offseason with 18-1 odds, Buckeyes quarterback Braxton Miller shot up Bovada's board on Tuesday, now possessing 10-1 odds to win college football's most coveted award. That gives Miller the third-best Heisman odds in the nation behind Boykin (6-1) and Elliott (7-1) with two months to go until the start of the 2015 season.

Perhaps more interestingly, however, Miller now possesses the best odds of any Ohio State quarterback to win the stiff-arm statue. For the first time this offseason, Miller's Heisman Trophy odds are better than those of fellow Buckeye signal-callers Cardale Jones (20-1) and J.T. Barrett (25-1), both of whom saw drops in their perceived Heisman chances in Bovada's latest update.

But perception isn't always reality, and that line of logic applies here. While the initial takeaway from the latest Heisman Trophy odds for most fans may be that Miller is now the front-runner to be Ohio State's starting quarterback this fall, the man who made them said that's not necessarily the case.

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"With the uncertainty still about who will be starting for the Buckeyes in the season opener against the (Virginia Tech) Hokies, it is not easy to set an order in terms of Heisman odds for Ohio State’s three quarterbacks," Bovada sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley told Bleacher Report. "When it came out that Miller was staying and rumors, true or not, that he has a good chance to start, we felt making him the favorite of the three was the right thing. 

"And at these odds, he has taken more money than the other two, even though the new consensus seems to be Cardale Jones to be the starter game for the first game."

Reading between the lines, Las Vegas is essentially covering its tracks after having counted Miller out of the Buckeyes' unprecedented quarterback competition since January. ESPN's Joe Schad's report that Miller will in fact be returning to Ohio State rather than taking advantage of his ability as a graduate transfer certainly helped boost his odds, as did Miller's own tweet announcing that he had undergone a successful checkup with Dr. James Andrews as he continues to recover from the torn labrum in his throwing shoulder that brought his 2014 season to an end before it even started.

Only adding to the buzz surrounding Miller last week was Tim May of the Columbus Dispatch's report that the Huber Heights, Ohio, native will be discussing his "immediate plans" in the coming week. 

But even with Miller's sudden re-emergence—real or not—in the Buckeyes' highly anticipated quarterback competition, as Bradley mentioned, the job still appears to be Jones' to lose. So if Miller still isn't the front-runner to be Ohio State's starting quarterback, then why does he have better Heisman odds than both Jones and Barrett?

The answer lies in Las Vegas' overall strategy.

It's important to note that futures—such as Heisman Trophy and championship odds—aren't set as predictions, as they are often incorrectly used as, but rather as ways to entice even betting across the board. In other words, oddsmakers want to do their best to get bets placed on favorites, long shots and everything in between in order to make more money than they end up paying out.

More times than not, they work in Las Vegas' favor.

"A book should rarely lose on futures. When a champion is crowned in any sport, the book should consider the winnings a present for all the hard work put into the season of booking individual games," reads a Sporting News tutorial on futures betting. "Some books fail to stay on top of things, such as a baseball or basketball team getting hot, which turns its odds stale and creates an attractive opportunity for sharp players."

That last part in particular applies to Miller, whose former odds of 18-1 could have been viewed as stale following all of the momentum his candidacy has seemingly picked up in the last week. It's also a safe bet—no pun intended—that several bettors took the talented Miller at 18-1 as a strong value bet just in case he did wind up reclaiming his starting spot at Ohio State.

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Now that there appears to be a better chance of that happening than there was six months ago, oddsmakers must guard themselves against those long-shot odds paying off.

Of course, the Buckeyes' quarterback derby won't be determined by an oddsmaker but rather on the field in the coming months. With Urban Meyer stating last week that all three contending signal-callers are close to full strength, there will be no shortage of eyes paying attention to the star-studded quarterback competition in Columbus this August—including plenty in Las Vegas.

And as the upcoming developments occur, they'll undoubtedly continue to be reflected by the sportsbooks.

"With three stud quarterbacks, one misstep, and someone could step in," Bradley said. "So until we know who is starting, we are fine at these odds."

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.