Dion Waiters Entering Critical Contract Season with Oklahoma City Thunder

Dion Waiters will enter the 2015-16 season hoping to secure a new contract next summer and maintain a future with the Oklahoma City Thunder. With a fresh coach and possibly a new role on a team with championship aspirations, the opportunity is there for Waiters to break out, but he will need to shed the inconsistency that has plagued him his entire NBA career.

After joining the team in January, he averaged 12.7 points in 46 games after taking over the sixth-man role from Reggie Jackson. Waiters played in every possible contest, which was an accomplishment in and of itself given OKC's struggle with injuries this past season.

Most importantly, after a reportedly turbulent time with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Waiters found happiness in his new surroundings. 

"It was a special year for me. Just being able to make the transition that I did," Waiters said during his exit interview. "It was exciting, the fans, the people, the community. I miss it already. I just can't wait to get back."

Unfortunately, Waiters' tenure in OKC wasn't without its share of warts. Suspect shot selection played a role in the 23-year-old converting a career-low 39.2 percent from the field. He also struggled from the charity stripe, shooting a combined 68 percent from the line in both stops, which ranked 80th among all shooting guards. 

The Thunder's recent history suggests a contract extension for Waiters by the October 31 deadline is unlikely. Jeff Green, James Harden and Reggie Jackson all entered their walk years in OKC looking for new deals, and each was traded before the season ended. While the club has shown no desire to move Waiters, that uncertainty adds intrigue to a critical campaign for the Syracuse guard. 

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Former Thunder coach Scott Brooks typically utilized a defensive presence at the shooting guard position to help stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook exhaust less two-way energy. Thabo Sefolosha was the team's perimeter stopper for five-and-a-half seasons before Andre Roberson inherited the role last year. 

Now, Brooks is gone and ex-University of Florida coach Billy Donovan is in, which opens up the possibility of a new face in OKC's backcourt. During his introductory press conference, Donovan gave a glimpse of what he's looking for on the offensive end, per Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman: 

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Playing fast, moving and playing into a flow on offense. Playing out of concepts, not trying to stop the game and trying to call a play every time, but let those guys create and make plays inside the framework of that vision of player movement, ball movement, making the extra pass and being unselfish.

"

"He's about guys not being scared to take shots," added the Orlando Sentinel's Edgar Thompson, per Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman. 

Roberson's limited abilities as a scorer make him a poor choice for Donovan's pace-and-space scheme. In 67 games this past season, the Colorado product contributed just 3.4 points and shot a woeful 24.7 percent from downtown while logging 19.2 minutes per contest.

Anthony Morrow, another candidate for the starting job, shot 43.4 percent from behind the arc, but his scoring is mostly predicated on the three ball. Of his 615 field-goal attempts in 2014-15, 325 came from behind the arc, which translates to 52.8 percent of his takes.

Meanwhile, Waiters fits the bill as a 2-guard who is both unafraid to take shots and plays with the kind of tempo Donovan is looking for. According to NBA.com, Waiters finished with a PACE rating (number of possessions per 48 minutes) of 100.25, the fourth-highest among Thunder players behind Enes Kanter, Westbrook and Durant. 

He also averaged 15.3 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes, which was fourth among players on OKC's current roster and just slightly less than Kanter (15.4). The key for Waiters, as evidenced by this chart from Vorped.com, is taking the right shots. 

Vorped.com

Waiters' penchant for ill-advised looks lowered his offensive impact with the Thunder. In fact, when grading his 2014-15 performance, Mayberry gave Waiters a D for shot selection. This was his explanation:

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This might be a bit of a misnomer. In order to have shot selection, one must first be selective. Waiters was anything but. When he got the ball, you generally knew where it was going — up...Worst of all was Waiters’ insistence on taking inefficient long 2-pointers. Those shots made up roughly 27 percent of his field goals. And he made only 38 percent of those shots.

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The hope is Donovan can steer Waiters away from taking long jumpers and convince him to attack the basket more, where he converted 50.8 percent of his shots at the rim. Waiters also has the potential to be a weapon from the outside. While his 31.9 percent from deep was a bit disheartening, it's worth noting he isn't that far removed from knocking down 36.8 percent of his threes as a sophomore in 2013-14.

Also, after struggling to co-exist with ball-dominant stars like LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Cleveland, can Waiters handle playing heavy minutes in the starting lineup with Durant and Westbrook? Will he be content trying to build his value with limited touches or will there be more body language like in this clip below?

Even if the Thunder run a less iso-heavy offensive scheme under Donovan, Waiters will have to accept being possibly the fifth option in the rotation behind Durant, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter. If relegated to the sixth-man role again, he will have to become a more willing passer, as ball movement is one of Donovan's key principles.

Waiters' ability to buy into Donovan's philosophy and not disrupt the team's chemistry will be the most critical part of his contract year. The decision to put personal numbers over the interests of the team played a huge role in Jackson's midseason exile. Does Waiters want to follow that same path?

The other key to Waiters' future in OKC is improvement on the defensive end. He allowed opponents to shoot 44 percent from the field and gave up 108 points per 100 possessions, which tied Morrow and Perry Jones for fourth-worst on the team. There were also quite a few mental lapses, such as in this clip below from Vine user Jack Winter.

Still, there are reasons to be optimistic. According to NBA.com, the Thunder posted a defensive rating of 103.5 when Waiters was on the court, as opposed to 107.4 with him on the bench. Additionally, his minus-0.8 off-court net rating was actually 0.3 better than Durant. 

Waiters' ability to make strides in these areas will go a long way to securing a future in Oklahoma City. The team gave up a future first-round pick to acquire his services, and its alleged unwillingness to use him to move up in the draft suggests he's an integral part of the core.

However, he is of no use to the squad if he continues to make gaffes at both ends of the court. With so much riding on this season, the pressure is on Waiters to reach the potential that made him a lottery pick in 2012. 

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

The Thunder took a chance on Waiters playing a key role in their championship quest, be it as a starter or reserve. Thus far, the results have been mixed, leaving his future with the team uncertain. 

With a new coach and the prospect of a lucrative contract next summer, the opportunity is there for Waiters to leave his mark in OKC.

History suggests he will either take it or take a hike.